There's no doubt that real gems are still missed sometimes. And we're getting at the most likely mechanism should the recruiting services miss the next Charles Woodson -- because the best P5 coaches missed him first.
Of course, I'd also bet that these coaches miss fewer players today than ever. The continuous rise of the internet means that it's never been harder to hide an elite recruit than it is this year,.
I think this is right, and I think it's interesting how we've come to a point where we understand the system and have so much information that when a guy gets missed, we pretty much understand. And what's very interesting is we have a good grasp of understanding why someone might get missed and a less good one about why someone busts out.
I'd bet the vast, vast majority of missed guys happen for one of these reasons
-Player making a position change who didn't attend many camps
-Injury limited HS exposure and scared some teams
-Highly developmental guy (i.e. 250 pound TE who becomes a OT, 220-pound DE who adds 45 pounds on a real weight program)
-Abnormally small
-Late bloomer physically
-Did something stupid in high school/Grades
I feel like most recruiting misses are somewhere in there, give or take some random, "wow, that guy was just better in college than could reasonably be expected." (I recall us having a discussion of App State in that vein)
Busts are trickier. The easy categories:
-Kid is a shit in som way
-Developmental player with hype doesn't develop
-Injury
-Stifling one's own development with lack of opportunity (four-star QB who joins roster with five four-stars)
-Caught in coaching/system change
But beyond that, there's just so many guys who just don't make the college transition well. I feel like Michigan's OL and RB issues fit here maybe? Is there more of a reason I'm missing?
