I wonder if "we" had a ratings system based solely on a recruits offers how close it would get to reality. I know some legacy players might be outliers.
But if you see X with offers from Bama, Clemson, USC, Texas, Ohio State ...., it's a pretty good basis for rating him 4-5 *, without knowing anything else.
Then of course if he signs with say Michigan State, you drop him 126 places just because.