B1G-E race:
If these rankings are correct (or even close) then it is between #1 tOSU and #2 PSU. The next best B1G-E team (per our rankings) is #4 Michigan but in addition to not being ranked as highly as the other two, the Wolverines also have, by far, the toughest schedule.
Thus, the absolute key game is tOSU @ PSU on 10/31. Assuming that tOSU (vUNL) and PSU (@IU) win this week, the winner of the tOSU/PSU game on 10/31 will have a one game lead and the tiebreaker on the loser.
If Ohio State beats Penn State:
The only way for PSU to get into the B1GCG would be either:
- Ohio State loses at least twice, or
- Ohio State loses to a B1G-E team that PSU beats, all three (tOSU, PSU, and the team that lost to PSU and beat tOSU) finish 7-1, and PSU wins that tiebreaker.
Neither seems very likely:
- Ohio State's next three toughest opponents are all home games (v #4 M on 12/12, v #7 IU on 11/21, and v #9 UNL on 10/24). PSU would likely need tOSU to lose two of those three and that seems highly unlikely if tOSU is good enough to beat PSU on the road.
- There are multiple reasons that this is also highly unlikely. First, the most likely team to beat tOSU and lose to PSU would be Michigan but Michigan hosts PSU and travels to tOSU. For one thing, PSU would have to win in Ann Arbor where they are just 3-8 all-time and haven't won since 2009. Additionally, Michigan would have to win in Columbus where they haven't won since 2001. Finally, even if all of that happened, a three-way tie between tOSU, PSU, and M all at 7-1 in the B1G-E would ultimately be broken based on the record of their non-divisional opponents. In this case, Michigan would likely win that as their B1G-W opponents are #3 UW and #5 MN while PSU's are #6 Iowa and #9 UNL and tOSU's are #9 UNL and #12 IL.
If Penn State beats Ohio State:
The only way for tOSU to get into the B1GCG would be either:
- Penn State loses at least twice, or
- Penn State loses to a B1G-E team that tOSU beats, all three (PSU, tOSU, and the team that lost to tOSU and beat PSU) finish 7-1, and tOSU wins that tiebreaker.
IMHO, tOSU's chances with a loss in the tOSU/PSU game are slightly better than PSU's but the Buckeyes would still find themselves needing to hope for multiple unlikely outcomes. The three-way tie (tOSU/PSU/M) is more likely if PSU beats tOSU (because it simply requires the home team to win each game) but Ohio State's chances of ultimately winning that tie are even worse than PSU's (because tOSU's B1G-W opponents are #9 UNL and #11 IL). However, the chances of PSU beating tOSU and losing two other games are better than the reverse. Penn State has to visit Ann Arbor, hosts Iowa, and visits both Bloomington and Lincoln. It isn't unfathomable that the Nittany Lions could beat the Buckeyes in Happy Valley but also lose in Ann Arbor and either at home to the Hawkeyes or in Bloomington or Lincoln. Still, it seems doubtful.