2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Now Iowa is working towards their 3rd decade. Tom Davis' final season was 1999, the last time Iowa made it to 16. Fans wanted a change because that wasn't enough and we got one. Be careful what you want, you just may get it.

I get this and Holtman has only been in Columbus for four years including the canceled tournament in 2020 so I'm certainly not advocating for a change right now.

That said, ignoring 2020, Holtman has achieved a #2, a #5, and a #11 seed with two R32 losses, an R64 loss, no B1G titles (regular season or Tournament). That isn't "fire him now" futility, but it also isn't "give him a ten year extension and make him one of the highest paid coaches in America" success either. 

[ELA]

anyone else disappointed in the Big Ten?

seems like the conference is not representing to the true strength. 

do we have two teams left and they have to win today to go to the sweet 16

There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC.  And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.

When the inputs are bad, and there's no opportunity to adjust, this is what you get.

[FearlessF]

seems like the conference is not representing to the true strength. 

what makes you believe this isn't the "true" strength?
hard to tell if a conference is good if there are no non-con games to weigh

[betarhoalphadelta]

Tournament performance over time by teams.

I'll do Purdue because we seem to talk a lot about their Tournament woes and Ohio State because they are my team:

Purdue has been to six straight Tournaments:

• #4 seed in 2021, lost opener.
• #3 seed in 2019, lost in E8.
• #2 seed in 2018, lost in S16.
• #4 seed in 2017, lost in S16.
• #5 seed in 2016, lost opener.
• #9 seed in 2015, lost opener.

Comparing what those seeds typically accomplish to what Purdue actually accomplished:

• Purdue made three R32's, should be 4.51, down 1.51.
• Purdue made three S16's, should be 2.49, up 0.51.
• Purdue made one E8, should be 1.11, down 0.11.
• Purdue made zero F4's, should be 0.56, down 0.56.
• Purdue made zero NC's, should be 0.23, down 0.23.
• Purdue won zero NC's, should be 0.08, down 0.08.

Ohio State has been to three straight Tournaments:

• #2 seed in 2021, lost opener.
• #11 seed in 2019, lost in R32.
• #5 seed in 2018, lost in R32.

Comparing what those seeds typically accomplish to what Ohio State actually accomplished:

• Ohio State made 2 R32's, should be 2.01, down 0.01.
• Ohio State made zero S16's, should be 1.13, down 1.13.
• Ohio State made zero E8's, should be 0.58, down 0.58.
• Ohio State made zero F4's, should be 0.28, down 0.28.
• Ohio State made zero NC's, should be 0.11, down 0.11.
• Ohio State won zero NC's, should be 0.04, down 0.04.

It's simple. 

Purdue is one of the elite teams in college basketball. Not exactly blue blood status, but a team that for the last 40 years (Gene Keady + Matt Painter) has always been seen as say a top 25 program. 

Purdue hasn't been to the Final Four since 1980, the year before Keady took over. Big Dog getting hurt wrestling with a teammate between the S16 and E8 games, and not looking the same. 2000 running into Wisconsin for the 4th time that season. 2010 Hummel tearing his ACL against Minnesota when Purdue looked like a lock for a 1 seed. 2011 Hummel tearing his ACL again right before the season on what was supposed to be Purdue's revenge tour. 2018 Purdue coming in as a 2 seed and having Haas break his elbow in the R64. 2019 Purdue leading the eventual NC Virginia Cavaliers as the clock ticked 00:00 in the E8 game--but they had a miracle shot in the air and made it after the buzzer to tie. 

The reason that Purdue is considered sub-par in the tournament is that any program with that history SHOULD have gone to a F4 in the last 40 years... And we haven't. 

You bring up the last 6 tournaments, where we've performed roughly to seed. Maybe a tiny bit below seed, but certainly not overperformed our seed. 

Here's a list of some of the teams that have made a F4 in those 6 tournaments:

• #7 seed MSU (2015)
• #10 seed Syracuse (2016)
• #7 seed USCe (2017)
• #11 seed Loyola-Chicago (2018)
• #5 seed Auburn (2019)

In 40 years Purdue has squandered high seeds and never had that great low-seed run, to make the F4. 

Can't we just have nice things ONE year?

[medinabuckeye1]

There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC.  And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.

When the inputs are bad, and there's no opportunity to adjust, this is what you get.

How does it impact the two B1G teams left?

So far, our teams are 6-7. #1 seed Michigan and #10 seed Maryland remain, their paths:

#1 Michigan plays #8 LSU tonight at 710. If they win, they'll face the winner of #4 FSU vs #5 Colorado in the S16. If they win that, they'll get one of:

• #2 Alabama
• #10 Maryland
• #11 UCLA, or
• #14 Abilene Christian

In the E8.

#10 Maryland plays #2 Alabama tonight at 845. If they win, they'll face the winner of #11 UCLA vs #14 Abilene Christian in the S16. If they win that they'll get one of:

• #1 Michigan
• #4 FSU
• #5 Colorado, or
• #8 LSU

In the E8.


If either were to win the E8 game and advance to the F4 they would play one of:

• #1 Gonzaga
• #3 Kansas
• #5 Creighton
• #6 USC
• #7 Oregon, or
• #13 Ohio

In the F4.

Michigan is a better team and they have an easier match-up tonight but if Maryland can get past Alabama they would get a much easier S16 match-up.


Ideally, they'll play each other in the E8 and our league will be 10-8 heading into the F4 to finish:

• 10-9 with a semi-final loss, or
• 11-9 with a CG loss, or
• 12-8 with an NC.

If both win tonight we only need one more win to finish .500 in Tournament games.

If only one wins tonight then we need that one to make the F4 to finish .500 in Tournament games.

If both lose tonight we finish a pathetic 6-9 as a league.

[Brutus Buckeye]

So we are down to Michigan and Maryland, each of which still has the possibility of being eliminated in the Thirsty 32. Helluva showing... 

[ELA]

Pretty clear that the NCAA tourney is just the undercard to the Pac 12 tourney

[rolltidefan]

Pretty clear that the NCAA tourney is just the undercard to the Pac 12 tourney

Those guys came to play

[Brutus Buckeye]

The Wolverines aren't looking so hot in the early going. 

[bayareabadger]

There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC.  And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.

When the inputs are bad, and there's no opportunity to adjust, this is what you get.

I mean, every year, even with good inputs, this thing is random as hell. Crappy conferences do well. Good conferences do crappy. That's just the beast. 

IIRC, the Big Ten had a year it was so bad it managed four bids (OSU might have been on probation). It had three teams in the Elite 8 and two in the final four. The next year, it was considered notably stronger and I think got no one past the second round. The tournament is not a a great reflection of anything but which league did better in the tournament. 

[JerseyTerrapin]

There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC.  And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.

 

Not sure why, ELA, but that made me laugh a lot.  Pithy comment...

[CatsbyAZ]

Entertaining, fast paced shootout between LSU & Michigan to finish out first half. Wolverines have weathered the best of LSU’s shooting percentage; doors blown open second half. Meanwhile, these halftime commentaries are horrible. Wally Sczcerbiak looks like he’s devolving into a Werewolf. Needs a Scooby snack.

[ELA]

Entertaining, fast paced shootout between LSU & Michigan to finish out first half. Wolverines have weathered the best of LSU’s shooting percentage; doors blown open second half. Meanwhile, these halftime commentaries are horrible. Wally Sczcerbiak looks like he’s devolving into a Werewolf. Needs a Scooby snack.

I think he looks like a Dick Tracy villain

[MaximumSam]

Heh I went to Miami when Wally was there. My favorite memory was when he came back to Miami (while he was in the NBA) to work out at the rec center and they wouldn't let him in because he wasn't a student.