2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[MaximumSam]

See Purdue you were on the list

[medinabuckeye1]

Tourney losses happen.  Teams get hot, things happen in single elimination.  What's ugly about the 3 Big Ten losses is that all three were in OT.  We played even for 40 minutes.  Then in extra time, the supposedly deeper, tough team, got outplayed.

Conference not looking good.  And in fairness, our only real OOC competition was the Challenge...and the ACC looks to actually be worse.

Good point about OT. All three losses in OT is just miserable luck.

[bayareabadger]

So, UW did about everything I could've reasonably asked of them for the tournament. They delivered the kind of game they can, plus a little more. UNC also helped them out by being stunningly limited and mildly sloppy. 

Now, if they want to do something I can unreasonably ask, that would be super cool.

I also forgot my annual preamble to the tournament. But it's low-key chaos. Teams that are really good get popped for no reason. Sudden holes are discovered by the most random of opposition. Shots fall or don't there are no mulligans. If you're a team that usually gets good seeds and Izzo isn't your coach, you'll be disappointed more often than not. That's the math. Much of the capacity to leave folks feeling good is wrapped up in lower seeds. And lower seeds will upend some folks.

It's to a degree silly to judge a full season by such a wonky event, but I suppose that doesn't tamp the elation when things go right, or the angst when they don't. 

[MarqHusker]

Winthrop blending in w the floor border.   

Every year I have to post this,  NCAA looking to solve a problem that didn't exist with these stupid floors.   

[ELA]

Winthrop blending in w the floor border. 

Every year I have to post this,  NCAA looking to solve a problem that didn't exist with these stupid floors. 

I have always agreed with this. I miss the unique floors. I liked being able to recognize games taking place in the same location. That's sad, in this weird tournament, the fact that they're using the courts that they have been for the past couple of years, actually serves to remind me that this is actually the tournament

[ELA]

So it appears the ACC is complete garbage. And considering that comprised the majority of our good non-conference games, I guess that's why we are sitting where we are now.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Tourney losses happen.  Teams get hot, things happen in single elimination.  

Great reason not to expand the college football playoff.

[ELA]

Great reason not to expand the college football playoff.

Depends on what your goal is.

But even given that, The margins are much smaller in basketball than they are in football

[Kris60]

Great reason not to expand the college football playoff.

I do like the fact that the entire football season isn’t dictated by what happens in the postseason.  Two of the best and most beloved teams in WVU history were 88 and 93.  Both were beaten soundly in their bowls, but those seasons are looked on fondly.  The journey to get there is still appreciated.  They were still great seasons.  The fact that they ended in disappointment didn’t destroy the memory of the whole season.

It’s not like that in basketball.  Huggs’ second best team at WVU is probably the 2016 team that got upset in the first round by Stephen F. Austin.  If you bring up that team to 9 out of 10 WVU fans they will shrug their shoulders and say, “Meh, they choked when it counted.”

[MarqHusker]

Am I the only one thinking about Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler right now?

[ELA]

Am I the only one thinking about Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler right now?

My wife asked the same question on our last date night

[Kris60]

My wife asked the same question on our last date night

Lmao

[medinabuckeye1]

I also forgot my annual preamble to the tournament. But it's low-key chaos. Teams that are really good get popped for no reason. Sudden holes are discovered by the most random of opposition. Shots fall or don't there are no mulligans. If you're a team that usually gets good seeds and Izzo isn't your coach, you'll be disappointed more often than not. That's the math. Much of the capacity to leave folks feeling good is wrapped up in lower seeds. And lower seeds will upend some folks.

I get this and it is why I use past history to project performance.

It is overly simplistic to just say that #1's should make the F4, #2's should make the E8, #3's and #4's should make the S16, and #5's through #8's should make the R32. Instead, I use past performance. It is of very limited utility when looking at one team but when looking at the nine B1G teams it should work reasonably well.

A highly seeded team getting upset can be compensated for by a low seed pulling off an upset.

If Wisconsin and Rutgers take out Baylor and Houston then the embarrassing tOSU and Purdue upsets will be made up for.

Several pages ago I posted the number of teams from our conference that should make it to each round:

What this group should accomplish:

• 6.15 teams in the R32
• 3.91 teams in the S16
• 2.62 teams in the E8
• 1.36 teams in the F4
• 0.69 teams in the NC
• 0.39 National Champions

The math by round:
R64:

• #1's win 99.29%, we have two so should win 1.99.
• #2's win 94.29%, we have two so should win 1.89.
• #4's win 79.29%, so Purdue should win 0.79.
• #9's win 51.43%, so Wisconsin should win 0.51.
• #10's win 39.29%, we have two so should win 0.78.
• #11's win 37.14%, we have 1/2 so should win .37.

R32:

• #1's win 85.71%, we have two so should win 1.71.
• #2's win 63.57%, we have two so should win 1.27.
• #4's win 47.14%, Purdue should win 0.47.
• #9's win 5%, Wisconsin should win 0.05.
• #10's win 16.43%, we have two so should win 0.33.
• #11's win 15.71%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.08.

S16:

• #1's win 69.29%, we have two so should win 1.39.
• #2's win 45.71%, we have two so should win 0.91.
• #4's win 15%, Purdue should win 0.15.
• #9's win 2.86%, Wisconsin should win 0.03.
• #10's win 5.71%, we have two so should win 0.11.
• #11's win 5.71%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.03.

E8:

• #1's win 41.43%, we have two so should win 0.83.
• #2's win 20%, we have two so should win 0.40.
• #4's win 9.29%, Purdue should win 0.09.
• #9's win 0.71%, Wisconsin should win 0.01.
• #10's win 0.71%, we have two so should win 0.01.
• #11's win 2.86%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.01.

National Semi-Finals:

• #1's win 25%, we have two so should win 0.5.
• #2's win 8.57%, we have two so should win 0.17.
• #4's win 2.14%, Purdue should win 0.02.
• #9's and below have never won at this level.

National Championship:

• #1's win 15.71%, we have two so should win 0.31.
• #2's win 3.57%, we have two so should win 0.07.
• #4's win 0.71%, Purdue should win 0.01.

We are already guaranteed to come up short in the first round even if Michigan, Iowa, and Maryland all win.

To match what our seeds should accomplish we then need four wins in the R32. That would be a lot more likely with a #2 seed and a #4 seed than a #9 and 10.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Man, you guys are still talking about basketball? smdh...