2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Last look at this with the BTT starting tomorrow but I thought a few things were interesting:

The two teams that jump out to me are Minnesota and Wisconsin and for the exact opposite reason.  

Minnesota:
Look at their record against seven teams that finished .500 or better (M, IL, IA, PU, tOSU, UW, RU).  They were 4-8 or .333.  That isn't great but it is about the same as three of the four teams that finished 10-10 or 9-11 (Wisconsin is excluded, see below, Rutgers was 2-6 or .250,  Maryland was 4-7 or .364 and MSU was 4-8 or .333 same as MN).  Based on how well they performed against the better half of the conference, Minnesota should have roughly a .500 league record and they should be on the bubble.  They aren't because the Gophers were actually worse against the bottom half of the conference than they were against the top half.  The only other school to do that was Michigan but that was mostly a sample-size issue because they only had three losses and two of them were to bottom-half teams (MN, MSU).  

It is just odd that the Gophers were good enough to beat Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State and yet bad enough to lose to Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana.  

Wisconsin:
The Badgers were the exact opposite.  They were great against the bottom half of the conference.  They went 9-2 against the seven teams that finished below .500.  That is third best in the league and only 1/2 a game behind Illinois and Purdue (both 10-2).  Based on their ability to dominate the lesser teams in the league, Wisconsin should be in the top-4 and not playing until Friday but it didn't work out that way because they were dreadful against the top half.  They were:

• 0-2 against Michigan
• 0-2 against Illinois
• 0-2 against Iowa
• 0-1 at Purdue
• 0-1 against Ohio State at home
• 1-0 at Rutgers

The Badgers were 0-8 against teams that finished ahead of them in the standings as their only win over a team that finished .500 or better was against the 10-10 Scarlet Knights.  

[bayareabadger]

Nah, I get that logic and I’ve done it a few times but Monday just has a different feel to it.  If it’s a holiday weekend like Memorial Day or Labor Day I’ll gladly take Friday off and stretch it into a 4 day weekend, but I hate burning a vacation day on a Monday.  If you go somewhere Monday is the travel day back.  So, it’s not like you are doing anything enjoyable and then you know you have the rest of the work week still in front of you.

The times I’ve taken a Monday off for a long weekend I always kinda wished I just went ahead and worked.

NERD!

[ELA]

Nah, I get that logic and I’ve done it a few times but Monday just has a different feel to it.  If it’s a holiday weekend like Memorial Day or Labor Day I’ll gladly take Friday off and stretch it into a 4 day weekend, but I hate burning a vacation day on a Monday.  If you go somewhere Monday is the travel day back.  So, it’s not like you are doing anything enjoyable and then you know you have the rest of the work week still in front of you.

The times I’ve taken a Monday off for a long weekend I always kinda wished I just went ahead and worked.

I agree with you as far as enjoyment of the vacation day.  But I think that is evened out with only having a four day week when it's over

[HawkFrenzy]

No way. The Friday-Monday combo is a veteran move. That way you have a short week, followed by a four day weekend, then another short week. Stretches the benefits of two vacation days to like half a month.

Actually for me, if I take vacation on Friday and Monday, I have to include Saturday and Sunday so that would be four days of vacation instead of two. 

[bayareabadger]

I was all excited to take Thursday off. Now I want to take Friday off, but my job loads that up with meetings. 

[medinabuckeye1]

A little more on odd records:

What I have done here is ranked all 14 B1G teams by their winning percentage against the top half of the teams in the league (those .500 and better, M, IL, IA, PU, tOSU, UW, RU) in the "Rk vs .500" column and then ranked them all again based on their winning percentage against the bottom half of the league (those under .500, UMD, MSU, IU, PSU, NU, MN, UNL) in the "Rk vs >.500" (should be <.500) column.  Note that ties are scored as the average of the rank that the teams are tied for:

• MN and MSU are tied for 7/8 against the .500+ so both got 7.5
• IU and PSU are tied for 10/11 against the .500+ so both got 10.5
• IL and PU are tied for 1/2 against the <.500 so both got 1.5
• MSU, IU, and PSU are tied for 9/10/11 against the <.500 so all three got 10

Finally, the "Difference" column is the difference between the two rankings.  

Unsurprisingly, most teams that are relatively very good against the top half are also relatively good against the bottom half.  For example, Illinois is tied for 1/2 against the bottom half and second against the top half.  Similarly, most teams that are relatively bad against the top half are also relatively bad against the bottom half.  For example, Nebraska is 14th against the bottom half and 12th against the top half.  

Half of our teams (MSU through PSU above) fall within 2.5 ranking places against the top and bottom halves of the conference.  Another three (PU, M, tOSU) fall within 3-3.5 ranking places against the top and bottom halves and that is still reasonably close.  The odd ones are the top four on the list above:

Wisconsin, 13th against the top half, 3rd against the bottom half:
As presented upthread, the Badgers were extremely good against the bottom half of the league, trailing only IL and PU but extremely bad against the top half of the league, better than only Northwestern.  

Northwestern, 14th against the top half, 6th against the bottom half:
The Wildcats were surprisingly good against their peers in the bottom half of the league but flat awful against the top half.  Northwestern was actually 5-2 (.714) against the bottom half of the league, they were:

• 1-0 against Maryland (home)
• 1-0 against Michigan State (home)
• 1-1 against Indiana
• 0-1 against Penn State (away)
• 1-0 against Minnesota (away)
• 1-0 against Nebraska (home)

That is a very good record even against those teams.  In the rankings it falls right between Iowa (8-3 or .727) and Ohio State (7-3 or .700).  Iowa and Ohio State are tournament locks while Northwestern's only chance is to win the BTT.  That is because while Northwestern was just as good against the bottom half as Iowa and Ohio State, the Wildcats were dreadful against the top half.  They split with the Buckeyes but went 0-10 against the rest of the teams that finished 10-10 or better.  

Maryland, 6th against the top half, 12th against the bottom half:
The Terps were reasonably good against the top half of the league, going 4-7 or .364.  That is just behind Purdue (3-4 or .429) and just ahead of Minnesota and Michigan State (both 4-8 or .333).  Their problem was that they didn't back that up by taking care of the teams that they should have beaten.  They were only 5-4 or .556 against the bottom half of the league.  That is just behind MSU, IU, and PSU (all 5-3 or .625) and ahead of Minnesota (2-6 or .250).  

Minnesota, tied with MSU for 7/8 against the top half, 13th against the bottom half:
As presented upthread, the Gophers were respectable against the top half of the league.  Their record of 4-8 or .333 was tied with Michigan State just behind Maryland (4-7 or .364) and just ahead of Rutgers (2-6 or .250).  Michigan State, Maryland, and Rutgers are all at least bubble teams while Minnesota's only chance at the NCAA would be to win the BTT.  Their problem was that they were flat awful against their peers in the bottom half of the conference.  Their record against the top half was actually better than their record against the bottom half (2-6 or .250).  Thus, a team with great quality wins over Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State will miss the tournament.  It is because they also have losses to Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Tonight's games:
9-14/6-13 #12 Northwestern vs 13-14/6-14 #13 Minnesota, 6:30pm, BTN:
On February 8th and 11th the Gophers won back-to-back home games against Nebraska and Purdue to move to 13-7/6-7 and a spot on the bubble.  Since then they have lost seven straight and that is not solely because the competition stiffened or the venue moved from home to away.  Within their current skid are three home losses (IL, NU, RU) and, of the seven teams they have lost to, only Illinois is better than Purdue.  

Northwestern's path to #12 has been unusual.  They won their first three league games including two wins over ranked (at the time) teams so just before NYE they were 3-0 and in first place in the B1G.  Then they lost 13 straight to drop to 6-14/3-13 in late February.  At that point it appeared that the only question for Northwestern was whether they or Nebraska would finish in the league's cellar.  Then they won three straight including a win over Minnesota in Minneapolis and a nice win over bubble team Maryland at home.  

This game seems to pit Northwestern's strength (beating bad teams) against Minnesota's weakness (losing to bad teams) so I like the Wildcats.  

In the prior meeting (only one this year) the Wildcats won by a dozen in Minneapolis.  The Gophers did lead by 14 due to holding the Wildcats to an anemic three points in more than eight minutes of play from tip-off until 11:44 to play (that is on pace to score just 15 in the entire game).  After that the Wildcats caught up and the game was fairly competitive most of the way until the Wildcats pulled away at the end.  

The winner will find 18-8/12-8 #5 Ohio State waiting for them tomorrow.  

10-13/7-12 #11 Penn State vs 7-19/3-16 #14 Nebraska, 9pm, BTN:
Penn State comes into this having won two straight and three out of four but Nebraska has won two of their last four as well which is remarkable when you consider that they only won three league games all year and two of them were within the last four.  Both teams may be playing above where they were earlier in the season but Penn State started out higher and should win.  

The teams met twice in the regular season with each team winning by a single possession (one and three points) on the other teams' home floor.  

On February 14 Nebraska led nearly the entire second half in State College before a furious PSU comeback put the Nittany Lions briefly on top but Nebraska scored with 12 seconds remaining to eek out a 62-61 win.  Penn State's nearly successful comeback is remarkable.  With nearly nine minutes remaining the Cornhuskers led 60-49 and appeared to be cruising for an easy win.  They didn't score again until they got the aforementioned go-ahead bucket with 12 seconds left.  In the intervening eight and a half minutes the Nittany Lions outscored the Cornhuskers 12-0 to take a 61-60 lead.  

Just over a week later on February 23 the teams played again, this time in Lincoln.  This game was competitive throughout with neither team able to break free of the other and Nebraska missed a three near the buzzer that would likely have sent the game to OT if it had been made.  PSU hung on for the 86-83 win.  

The winner will find 16-11/10-10 #6 Wisconsin waiting for them tomorrow.  

[FearlessF]

a win for Hoiberg's huskers would give them a bit more hope for next season

they could use more hope

[ELA]

a win for Hoiberg's huskers would give them a bit more hope for next season

they could use more hope

Let's just get him through a game without looking like he's going to die on the bench.  Baby steps

[FearlessF]

that was almost a year ago, hopefully he's healthy

but, I gotta agree

with his close view of how poorly his team plays, it's a wonder he has survived

[MarqHusker]

First dribbles of Nebraska hoops I've seen all year.

[bayareabadger]

First dribbles of Nebraska hoops I've seen all year.

Did you watch enough Marquette to know what's up with Carton. That's a weird one. 

[ELA]

Top 2 seeds in the MAAC went down tonight.  The last place team in the Patriot is now in the title game.  Anecdotally, I can't remember this many mid and low major top seeds going down early.  The caliber of the 13-16 seeds, on paper, is worse than normal.

Or this is just a preview of how not chalk the NCAA tourney is going to be

[ELA]

First dribbles of Nebraska hoops I've seen all year.

I see the NBA "travelling" rules have made their way to college?