2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[FearlessF]

if anyone with a vote was watching

[medinabuckeye1]

Our bubble teams are not closing well.  In the last week or so:

• Rutgers lost at Nebraska
• Minnesota lost at home to Northwestern
• Minnesota lost at Nebraska

Here are all 14 teams conference records along with a breakdown into:

• Record against the .500+ teams (M, IL, IA, PU, tOSU, UW, UMD)
• Record against the <.500 teams (RU, MSU, IU, MN, PSU, NU, UNL)
• Record against the top-12 (all but NU, UNL)
• Record against the bottom-2 (NU, UNL)

Wisconsin and Purdue seem to be our most consistent teams.  At 9-1 and 8-2 respectively against the sub .500 teams they are among the best in the league.  They are also both perfect against the bottom two (4-0 for UW, 2-0 for PU) and not so good against the .500+ teams.  Purdue is not bad there at 3-4 (0.429) but Wisconsin is dreadful, 1-7 or 0.125.  That is third worst in the league ahead of only Northwestern and Nebraska.  

Illinois' 2-2.5 game lead over their pursuers (IA, PU, tOSU) appears to be a function of two things:

• They do appear to be better than the aforementioned IA, PU, and tOSU.  Illinois is second best in the league behind only Michigan against the .500+ teams (IA 3rd, tOSU 4th, PU 5th).  The Illini are also second best in the league behind only Michigan against the top-12 (IA/tOSU 3rd/4th, PU 5th).  
• They have played a slightly easier schedule than the Hawkeyes, Boilermakers, and Buckeyes.  Illinois has played only six games against .500+ teams compared to seven each for IA and PU and eight for tOSU.  Similarly, Illinois has played all four possible games against the bottom two compared to two each for PU and IA and three for tOSU. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at tonight's games:

14-4 Illinois at 13-1 Michigan, 7pm, ESPN:
Michigan is probably going to win the B1G Regular Season Title regardless (because all they need is one win in their last  three games OR one Illinois loss in Illinois' last two games) but they can end the suspense with a win tonight.  

If Michigan wins:
The Wolverines clinch the title and the #1 seed in the BTT while the #2 seed stays in range for Iowa and Purdue.  Either the Hawkeyes or Boilermakers would still need to win out and for tOSU to beat Illinois this weekend but at least it would still be possible.  

If Illinois wins:
The Illini clinch at least the #2 seed in the BTT and remain at least mathematically alive for the Regular Season Title although they would still need to win in Columbus and for the Spartans to sweep the Wolverines.  

7-10 Indiana at 7-10 Michigan State, 8pm BTN:
Indiana can't get to .500 in the league because they are only going to play 19 games but if they win this they can at least get within a half a game (by also beating Purdue).  If they lose this their NCAA chances go nearly on life support.  Michigan State can get to .500 in the league but only if they win this then sweep the Wolverines so this game is pretty important for them as well.  Furthermore, Lunardi currently lists the Spartans and Hoosiers as the first and third teams out so the winner probably moves in (at least temporarily) while the loser will obviously have work to do.  

10-8 Wisconsin at 11-6 Purdue, 9pm, ESPN2:
Both teams look to be safely in the tournament so this game is all about seeding.  Wisconsin has lost three of their last four, and hasn't had a quality win since winning at Maryland over a month ago.  Purdue has won three straight and four of five since suffering a heartbreaking 1-point loss at Maryland a month ago today.  They finish the season with a home game against their arch-rivals on Saturday so finishing on a five-game winning streak is looking more and more likely.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Per Lunardi:

• #1:  Michigan, Illinois
• #2:  Iowa, Ohio State
• #5:  Purdue
• #6:  Wisconsin
• #8:  Maryland
• #9:  Rutgers

First Four Out:

• #1 Michigan State
• #3 Indiana

Putting eight teams in those seeds would typically result in:

• 6.14 in the R32
• 3.76 in the S16
• 2.55 in the E8
• 1.34 in the F4
• 0.73 in the NC
• 0.4 National Champions

Here is the math behind that although I'm pretty sure only @betarhoalphadelta (if even him) will care:

[847badgerfan]

I care. Thank you.

[medinabuckeye1]

I care. Thank you.

Ok then I'll explain it in case it doesn't already make sense.  

For your projected #6 seed Badgers use the #6 seed line:

• A #6 has a 62.86% chance of winning their NCAA opener (against #11).  
• A #6 has a 30% chance of also winning their R32 game to get to S16 (against 3/14) - NOTE this is cumulative, a #6 has a 30% chance of getting to the S16 by winning both their first and second NCAA games.  
• A #6 has a 10% chance of winning their S16 game to get to E8 (against 2/7/10/15)
• A #6 has a 2.14% chance of winning their E8 game to get to the F4 (against 1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16)
• A #6 has a 1.43% chance of winning the semi-final to get to the Championship
• A #6 has a 0.71% chance of winning the National Championship

Summing things up for the league as a whole:

• Our two #1 seeds have a 99.29% chance each of winning their opener against #16 so cumulatively that should result in 1.9857 teams in the R32
• Our two #2 seeds have a 94.29% chance each of winning their opener against #15 so cumulatively that should result in 1.8857 teams in the R32
• Our one #5 seed has a 64.29% chance of winning their opener against #12 so that should result in 0.6429 teams in the R32
• Our one #6 seed has a 62.86% chance of winning their NCAA opener against #11 so that should result in 0.6286 teams in the R32
• Our one #8 seed has a 48.57% chance of winning their NCAA opener against #9 so that should result in 0.4857 teams in the R32
• Our one #9 seed has a 51.43% chance of winning their NCAA opener against #8 so that should result in 0.5143 teams in the R32
• The sum of the above is 6.1429

 . . .

• Our two #1 seeds have a 15.71% chance each of winning the NC so cumulatively that should result in 0.3143 National Championships
• Our two #2 seeds have a 3.57% chance each of winning the NC so cumulatively that should result in 0.0714 National Championships
• Our one #5 seed has a 0% chance of winning the NC - NOTE:  I realize that this isn't technically correct.  Their chance is actually something marginally better than 0.00% but in the whole history of the 64-team bracket, none of the 140 #5 seeds have ever done it.  
• Our one #6 seed has a 0.71% chance of winning the NC (it has happened once out of 140 #6 seeds since expansion to 64 teams).  
• Our one #7 seed has a 0.71% chance of winning the NC (one in 140)
• Our one #8 seed has a 0.71% chance of winning the NC (one in 140)
• Our one #9 seed has a 0% chance of winning the NC - same note as above
• The sum of the above is 0.40.  

[NickSmith4Three]

Didn't expect this score from the Illini at half without Ayo.

[ELA]

Didn't expect this score from the Illini at half without Ayo.

Between Nebraska without Allen last night and Illinois without Dosunmu tonight, I'm suddenly nervous that Armond Franklin is out for Indiana.  Although the countermove to give Foster Loyer season ending shoulder surgery is why Izzo is in the HOF

[MaximumSam]

Ayo going down might be the best thing to happen to Illinois, as he should be back by the tourney and everyone is really thriving without him. 

[ELA]

MSU shot their wad last week.  Absolutely no legs.  Seeing UM tonight, and even both Iowa (even though they won) and OSU on Sunday, I'm wondering just how much this money grab to make up all these games was.  Everyone looks awful

[ELA]

MSU-Indiana now a combined 2-20 from three.

[FearlessF]

Huskers played their 12th game in a month last night

legs seemed ok

[ELA]

Huskers played their 12th game in a month last night

legs seemed ok

I'm just saying, when every missed shot is short, and you are playing your 5th game in 10 days, you can usually point to something.

Ita not something you see in getting up and down the court, you see it in the jump shots, usually.

A bunch of the contenders have looked awful offensively over the past few days. 

[bayareabadger]

Sucking is what these next two-ish hour will do for me. That damn building in W/L. 

Randomly, one of Bo's most petty moments that sticks with me happened there.