2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[Brutus Buckeye]

I fondly remember the motley crew Huggy recruited to Cincinnati, maybe exemplified by Art Long, who was charged with punching a police horse.

Best one by far was Donald Little. He tied his roommate up to a lawn chair and beat him and burned him. Real hard nose player. 

[NickSmith4Three]

Hearing that Illinois Ayo out with a broken nose for at least two games.  Maybe more (possibly up till BTT).

And miss what will likely be his last game at home 

[medinabuckeye1]

The race for the last #1 seed:

In my opinion, barring some pretty big surprises the #1 seeds will be Baylor, Gonzaga, Michigan and then one of Ohio State, Iowa, or Illinois.  

Espn's Bracketology currently has:

• Gonzaga
• Baylor
• Michigan
• Ohio State

And they have Iowa as the #2 seed in Gonzaga's region while Illinois is the #2 seed in Baylor's region.  Their other two #2 seeds are Alabama and Villanova.  

NCAA NET Rankings:

• 22-0 Gonzaga, 7-0 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4
• 18-0 Baylor, 6-0 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 5-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4
• 16-1 Michigan, 6-1 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 4-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4
• 16-6 Illinois, 7-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4
• 17-6 Iowa, 6-5 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1-0 Q3, 5-0 Q4
• 17-3 Houston, 2-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 9-1 Q3, 2-0 Q4
• 18-5 Ohio State, 9-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 3-0 Q4
• 15-3 Villanova, 2-1 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 8-0 Q3, 1-0 Q4
• 18-6 Alabama, 6-4 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 5-1 Q3, 1-0 Q4

ESPN's BPI rankings:

• Gonzaga
• Baylor
• Iowa
• Houston
• Michigan
• Villanova
• Illinois
• Ohio State

KenPom rankings:

• Gonzaga
• Baylor
• Michigan
• Iowa
• Houston
• Illinois
• Ohio State

First I'll discuss the other teams theoretically in the mix:

• Alabama is a #2 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #9 in NET, #14 in BPI, and #10 in KenPom.  
• Villanova is a #2 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #8 in NET, #6 in BPI, and #8 in KenPom.  
• Houston is #3 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #6 in NET, #4 in BPI, and #5 in KenPom.  

One of those three could potentially end up ahead of the highest out of tOSU/IL/IA, but I think they'd probably need to win out and have tOSU/IL/IA cannibalize each other and/or all take upset losses.  None of them will have an opportunity to improve their standing as much as the three B1G teams.  Their remaining schedules and the BTT will provide LOTS of opportunities for quality wins and some of those will be against each other where one of the two has to win.  

I admit that in the H2H games one of the two has to lose as well, but we are talking about six teams for one spot so the one losing doesn't help nearly as much as the other one winning hurts.  

Remaining schedules for the three B1G teams, Ohio State:

• at MSU
• vs Iowa
• vs Illinois
• B1G Tournament

Illinois:

• vs Nebraska
• @ Wisconsin
• @ Michigan
• @ Ohio State
• B1G Tournament

Iowa:

• @ Michigan
• @ Ohio State
• vs Nebraska
• vs Wisconsin
• B1G Tournament

IMHO, if Ohio State beats Iowa and Illinois they are a near-lock for the last #1 seed.  That would complete season sweeps of both the Hawkeyes and the Illini which would make it difficult for the committee to put either of them ahead of the Buckeyes and I do not think that any other team has sufficient remaining opportunities to catch up and pass tOSU with those two wins.  

If the Buckeyes lose one or both of those games that hurts the Buckeyes but helps the Illini and/or Hawkeyes so from the perspective of Bama/Villanova/Houston that is pretty much a wash.  

Iowa and Illinois both have great opportunities with their games at Michigan.  At this point that is probably a win/win situation for the Illini and Hawkeyes because they aren't going to drop much (if at all) for losing in Crisler Arena and if they happen to win it will be the best win of the year so far by any team.  

Based on all of this, I feel fairly confident at this point that the B1G will get two #1 seeds this year.  

[MaximumSam]

Michigan put a whooping on Iowa

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan put a whooping on Iowa

Makes Ohio State's close loss look great!

[MaximumSam]

Always love to see the refs go to replay to blow a call

[ELA]

Always love to see the refs go to replay to blow a call

Gentlemen's game, you don't allow uncalled slop

[ELA]

This is the MSU offense We have seen all year. Both inept, and giving up easy transition points the other way

[MaximumSam]

Props to Justin Ahrens for being completely unable to make a layup

[ELA]

HUmmel is really overselling this.  The teams are engaged, and the game is close, but I'm seeing stagnant offense more than great defense.  There are a couple of great individual efforts bailing out some mediocre half court sets.

[ELA]

Joey Hauser not redeeming himself among the faithful after Liddell hit like 8 FTs in a row over the past 2 minutes

[TyphonInc]

Wrong time for the Bucks to have "Holtman's annual month long swoon"

[bayareabadger]

Wrong time for the Bucks to have "Holtman's annual month long swoon"

Yes, that time was when they played my team, not after. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Battle for the double-bye is heating up...

3. Ohio State: 12-6 - games remaining -- vIA, vIL 
4. Iowa: 11-6 - games remaining -- @OSU, vUNL, vWI
5. Purdue: 11-6 - games remaining -- vWI, vIU
6. Wisconsin: 10-7 - games remaning -- vIL, @PU, @IA

Any of OSU, Iowa, or Purdue winning out from here would guarantee top 4, as OSU/Iowa play each other so one of the two will finish with at least 7 losses. 



Purdue has the easiest remaining schedule, with both games at home. But Wisconsin is always a tough out, and this game may be IU's spoiler opportunity if the lose to UM and MSU in their next two. At that point they're probably in "need to win BTT" mode for the tourney, so if they are in trouble, they may bring everything for their rival. What may hurt Purdue, however, is only having 19 games. If there is no clear H2H advantage in a multi-team tie, I think it might go to win%, which with a constant number of losses and one less game obviously hurts the Boilers.

I'd say OSU has the next easiest schedule, which given that they're facing the current #2 and #4 teams in the league, is still daunting. But at least they have both at home, and only two remaining games. Beating IA and losing to IL still gives them a pretty solid shot at the double-bye, as Iowa could lose two more and Wisconsin finishing undefeated from here on out is not the most likely scenario IMHO. They would have H2H over both IA and WI. Losing to Iowa and beating IL is less solid, as that takes away the H2H tiebreaker over IA, and if both IA and PU win out, OSU would automatically drop to 5th. 

3rd easiest is Iowa, IMHO. They're on the road at OSU, but HCA isn't as strong this year as most year, UNL should be an easy win, and then they face WI at home. If they get past OSU that gives them a lot more margin for error, as they have H2H over Purdue as well in the team's only meeting if it comes down to a tie between just the two. Obviously losing to OSU would hurt them much more, as they would then be 0-2 against OSU and on the outside looking in if both OSU and PU win out. 

Wisconsin has the worst current record of the three, the hardest remaining schedule, and three games remaining. I'm just going to assume they have to win all three to even have a shot, and even then it would likely come down to tiebreakers. But... That would deal both Purdue and Iowa a loss, so the worst case if WI wins out is T-4th. Then it's just a matter of how those tiebreakers play out.