So is Purdue a lock with a win over Nebraska tomorrow?
Currently they're 14-8, 9-6 in conference. A win over Nebraska would get them to 15-8 and 10-6.
Remaining schedule would be @PSU, vWIS, vIU. There's not a bad loss in that group. First BTT game also likely not a bad loss, as they'd be getting into the conference tourney at a >.500 record so they'd be somewhere in the 7-8 seed most likely.
Losing out after tomorrow would be 15-12 and 10-10. They'd drop a few seed lines, but I think they'd be solidly on the right side of the bubble, yeah?
How many B1G games are they going to play? I've got 19 (15 so far plus @UNL, @PSU, vsUW, vsIU) so I think yes. Beating Nebraska then losing out (including BTT opener) would be the 15-12/10-10 as you suggested and I think that would be in especially because that season sweep of the Buckeyes just keeps looking better and better. Back when Purdue beat the Buckeyes they were #20 (5-0) and #15 (11-3) but the Buckeyes have won seven straight since losing a second time to the Boilermakers and are now #4 and 18-4.
Assuming the home game against Nebraska doesn't get rescheduled (and lost), I think Purdue is in with a win in Lincoln tomorrow.
Assuming no more games are rescheduled, here is what I have (abbreviated version):
Locks:
- 15-1/10-1 Michigan
- 18-4/12-4 Ohio State
- 15-5/11-3 Illinois
- 16-6/10-5 Iowa
Should be in:
- 14-8/9-6 Purdue
- 15-8/9-7 Wisconsin
Work left to do:
- 12-8/8-8 Rutgers
- 12-9/7-7 Indiana
- 13-10/7-9 Maryland
- 13-9/6-9 Minnesota
Needs a miraculous finish and/or BTT Title:
- 10-9/4-9 Michigan State
- 7-11/4-10 Penn State
Cannot reach Tournament without winning BTT:
- 6-13/3-12 Northwestern
- 5-14/1-11 Nebraska
Additional thoughts on the teams closest to the bubble:
Rutgers:
The Scarlet Knights are 12-8/8-8 with four games plus the BTT to go. They have two home games (UMD, IU) and a road game at Nebraska left. They should be favored in all three of those and if they win those three I think they are in.
Indiana:
The Hoosiers are 12-9/7-7 with four games plus the BTT to go. They have a tougher remaining road with home games against the two Michigan schools and road games against RU and PU. I'm not confident that 2-3 (BTT loss) gets them there. It might, but I wouldn't be confident unless they can get three more wins.
Maryland:
The Terps are 13-10/7-9 but they have played a brutal schedule and what they have left is manageable. They could win out to the BTT (@RU, vsMSU, @NU, vsPSU). That would clearly get them in. Any combination of four more wins probably gets them in.
Minnesota:
The Gophers are 13-9/6-9 with four games left (vsIL, vsNU, @PSU, vsRU). They are two completely different teams at home and on the road. At home they are a #1 seed (see wins over both tOSU and M) and on the road . . . they aren't even an NIT team. If that continues they should finish 3-1 to enter the BTT at 16-10/9-10. I think they'd still need a win or maybe two in the BTT.
