Would love to see a locks, probably in, bubble, out breakdown.
My take (remember, I use a quite literal definition of "lock"):
Locks:
Ohio State 17-4/11-4:
The Buckeyes' worst case scenario is now 17-10/11-10. Additionally, the Buckeyes have a national best eight Q1 wins. Other teams would catch up if the Buckeyes lost out, but eight Q1 wins would still be very good even at the end of the season. The Buckeyes are in even if they lose out.
Michigan 14-1/9-1:
The Wolverines REALLY impressed me with that second half in Madison. I fully expected that they would come out a little sluggish/rusty after nearly a month off and they did. They fell behind by as much as 14 and trailed by 12 (39-27) at the half. it didn't matter. Michigan absolutely dominated the second half to the tune of 40-20. they locked down Wisconsin's offense and scored almost at will on Wisconsin's defense, impressive. Michigan's theoretical worst case scenario is 14-12/9-12 which might not get them in, but that would require them to actually play (and lose) 10 more regular season games and there just isn't enough time for that. Per the worldwide leader they only have five more RS games scheduled (six total with a BTT game) so their probable worst case scenario is about 14-7/9-7 and that would get them in.
Should be in:
Illinois 14-5/10-3:
The Illini's worst case scenario is theoretically 14-13/10-11 and it actually looks like they might play all of those games. That might get them in anyway but it would be close so for now I'll leave them here with the caveat that they are, at most, one win from clinching a bid. Ie, if they beat NU at home tonight, they are absolutely a lock.
Iowa 15-6/9-5:
The Hawkeyes' worst case scenario is 15-13/9-12 which might not get them in. At this point it looks like their home game against UNL might not get rescheduled (I'm not sure, just going by espn schedules) in which case their worst case is 15-12/9-11 which would be really close if not in. One more win and confirmation that the UNL game will not be rescheduled or two more wins and they are absolutely a lock.
Wisconsin 15-7/9-6:
The Badgers' worst case scenario is 15-13/9-12 and I do not think that would be enough considering that they are just 3-5 in Q1 games and 5-2 in Q2 games. It looks like they will play all 20 RS B1G games so I think they need two more wins to lock up a bid.
Purdue 13-8/8-6:
The Boilermakers' worst case scenario is 13-15/8-13 so they need more wins. It looks like they'll only play 19 RS B1G games so 10 B1G wins would probably guarantee them a spot, they need two more wins IMHO.
Rutgers 12-7/8-7:
The Scarlet Knights would be in if the Tournament started today but they still have some work to do.
Work to do:
Minnesota 13-8/6-8:
Per Lunardi, the Gophers would be a #10 seed with one of the "last four byes" if the Tournament started today. That is in, but by the skin of their teeth.
Indiana 11-9/6-7:
Like the Gophers, Lunardi has the Hoosiers as a #10 seed with one of the "last four byes" so in by the skin of their teeth.
Maryland 11-10/5-9:
Lunardi currently lists Maryland as the first team out so they could make it, but they have work to do. In their favor is the fact that all 10 of their losses are Q1 and that they have played what appears to be a nation leading 14 Q1 games. Working against them is that they are just barely over .500. They have an easier schedule down the stretch with Nebraska (home), Northwestern (road), Penn State (home) plus a road game at Rutgers and a home game with MSU. Winning out isn't implausible.
Needs a miraculous finish or a BTT win:
Michigan State 10-8/4-8:It is weird to see the Spartans here. I'm a 45 year old guy and I was in college when Izzo took over and the last time MSU didn't go to the Tournament. Given how great they have been for the past two decades and Izzo's reputation for tuning November/December/January mediocrities into March/April Champions I'm not going to count them out until I absolutely have to. That said, Izzo is rapidly running out of time for anything but a potential auto-bid by winning the BTT.
The Spartans have lost five of seven wrapped around an extended COVID-19 pause and the only two wins were home games against PSU and UNL. In 2021 they have just four wins and only one (vs RU) was a quality win with the other three coming against UNL2x and PSU (home). Obviously this does not add up to a tournament resume. They are now #95 in the NET rankings and #73 in the BPI with just a 2-7 record in Q1 games. That said, they have six games left on the schedule (theoretical possibility for eight if postponed games are rescheduled) and all six are Q1. If they were to win out they'd enter the BTT at 16-8/10-8 and 8-7 in Q1 games and already a lock.
The issue, like I said, is that they are running out of time. I thought based on giving Iowa quite a game in Iowa City on February 2 that they were turning the corner but then they got drilled by Iowa at home on February 13 so now it doesn't look like it. They are at Purdue tonight and at Indiana this weekend and if they lose both of those I think they will fall into "need to win BTT" territory.
Penn State 7-10/4-9:
Prior to their home loss to Nebraska this weekend I thought that the Nittany Lions had a plausible path to an at-large bid. If they'd have won their home games (UNL, tOSU, PU, MN) then either stolen a road game (IA, UMD) or won one or two in the BTT I think they'd have been good. Now I think they need a miraculous finish pretty close to winning out.
Need to win BTT:
Northwestern 6-12/3-11:
The Wildcats only have five games left on the schedule so even if they won out they would hit the BTT at 11-12/8-11 so I think they'd need to win it.
Nebraska 5-12/1-9:
The Cornhuskers have six games left on the schedule so even if they won out they would hit the BTT at 11-12/7-9 so I think they'd need to win it.
Anybody have any disagreement or agreement?
