2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

Your team is a bit of an enigma to me.  They are perfect against the league's worst two teams and a very respectable 7-2 against the league's >.500 teams.  That is better than all but Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue (6-1 each).  However, they are an abysmal 1-3 against the .500+ teams.  That is tied with PSU (2-6) and only better than MSU (1-5), NU (1-8), and UNL (0-3). 

Being consistent about beating bad and mediocre teams isn't nothing.  If it were easy, every good team would do it every time out and they don't.  As noted, Wisconsin is one of the best in the B1G at it.  However, they haven't been very good against their equals.  OTOH, Wisconsin's three losses to .500+ teams were to the top three in the standings (M, IL, tOSU) and two of the three were on the road (M, IL).  They have five games left against the .500 teams and three of the five are at home:

• vs M
• vs IL
• @ PU
• vs IA
• @ IA

Wisconsin's near-annual top-4 B1G finish is in serious jeopardy.  They are in fourth now and only a game behind #3 and also #2 but as of right now they would lose a tie with either of them so they are effectively 1.5 games from moving up and only 0.5 games ahead of #5 and #6.  Since it seems unlikely that they'll be able to catch the Buckeyes or Illini it will likely hinge on their two games against Iowa and their game in West Lafayette. 

The thing is, they're not consistent. They're just putting up a consistent-ish output with inconsistent play. It's ... not ideal. 

[bayareabadger]

I get where you are coming from but I think that Gonzaga has built up enough of a "brand" to be realistically able to avail themselves of H&H series with power conference opposition.  Even if they haven't, they could easily AT LEAST get H&H series against other typical mid-major powerhouses.  Four of their OOC games this year were against not only teams that were not that good, but against some of the absolute worst teams in the entire sport.  Some of that may have been pandemic issues this year but I've noticed this about their schedule in other years as well. 

I don't know about you, but as an Ohio State fan, I'd be disappointed if my team scheduled 300+ opponents OOC and my team (like yours) has the legitimate excuse that they get PLENTY of tests in conference so they don't need extra tests OOC beyond the Challenge and a few games here or there.  Gonzaga doesn't have that excuse so, to me, scheduling the absolute dregs of the sport OOC is . . . inexcusable. 

What to do about it?  Well, if it were me, I would take it into serious consideration when seeding them in the tournament.  Even if they finish undefeated, there will be a whole lot of major conference teams that are not undefeated but that have a LOT more quality wins than they do.  I'm not saying I would seed teams exclusively by "number of wins against quality opponents" but I also wouldn't do it exclusively based on winning percentage against quality opponents.  I'd balance the two and IMHO, the balance has leaned too heavily in Gonzaga's favor for quite some time. 

You amen some good points. And at best, I have quibbles. 

They used to do H&H series but they they kind of ascended. There used to be the appeal of maybe a good win. That's kind of gone. And if you're gonna take money for a road loss, a major will pay better. Hell, a major is easier to beat too. They got a home-and-home with Washington. If you look at the schedules, all the bad games are at home. Maybe it's because they want the home fans to see the backups, but I'm just guessing there's some blend of money and opportunity in there. It's a small school, small fanbase, no TV money. The recently did have an H&H with A&M and of late a nice series with Washington. 

So, Ohio State had Nos. 340, 322, 288 and 261 last year. A year before, 337, 278, 259 and 233. UW usually has a smattering of awful teams too, Coppin, Savannah and Grambling a few years back. Both our schools do it for the same reason Gonzaga does: It saves money and those teams will accept crappy schedule demands. Our schools could buy and sell Gonzaga's athletic department several times over. They could pay for better, but they don't because it's easier. (I think some of it is because they fixed the scheduling bug that made a 180ish team worlds better for SOS than a 320ish team rather than just mildly better. Though UW got just murdered for a set of 300s teams in the last RPI year)

I can buy underseeding the Zags, though it has two externalities. It means that unless a top 6-7 conference takes you, you will be locked out of those higher seeds unless you break the bank financially or play no home non-confernce games. You’d basically have to break the financial structuring of the sport to break through. The other issue is one of fairness, not to the Zags, but to their opponent. If you really drop them say to a six or a 7, you’ve got say 2 seed OSU or 3 seed Illinois an underdog in the second round by 8-10 points. That at least has to be factored in.

(Out of curiosity, I looked at the NET. At the moment, they’ve actually got Baylor beat in Quad 1 and 2 wins. Obviously won’t hold, but interesting)

[Brutus Buckeye]

Dixie State hung 67 on Gonzaga in their blowout loss. 

That's nearly double the offensive output that Michigan State had against Rutgers. 

"So what's your point?" you ask. 

I don't know. 

[medinabuckeye1]

You amen some good points. And at best, I have quibbles.

They used to do H&H series but they they kind of ascended. There used to be the appeal of maybe a good win. That's kind of gone. And if you're gonna take money for a road loss, a major will pay better. Hell, a major is easier to beat too. They got a home-and-home with Washington. If you look at the schedules, all the bad games are at home. Maybe it's because they want the home fans to see the backups, but I'm just guessing there's some blend of money and opportunity in there. It's a small school, small fanbase, no TV money. The recently did have an H&H with A&M and of late a nice series with Washington.

So, Ohio State had Nos. 340, 322, 288 and 261 last year. A year before, 337, 278, 259 and 233. UW usually has a smattering of awful teams too, Coppin, Savannah and Grambling a few years back. Both our schools do it for the same reason Gonzaga does: It saves money and those teams will accept crappy schedule demands. Our schools could buy and sell Gonzaga's athletic department several times over. They could pay for better, but they don't because it's easier. (I think some of it is because they fixed the scheduling bug that made a 180ish team worlds better for SOS than a 320ish team rather than just mildly better. Though UW got just murdered for a set of 300s teams in the last RPI year)

It annoys me that Ohio State does that (and Wisconsin and most others) but at least B1G teams have the excuse.  

I can buy underseeding the Zags, though it has two externalities. It means that unless a top 6-7 conference takes you, you will be locked out of those higher seeds unless you break the bank financially or play no home non-confernce games. You’d basically have to break the financial structuring of the sport to break through. The other issue is one of fairness, not to the Zags, but to their opponent. If you really drop them say to a six or a 7, you’ve got say 2 seed OSU or 3 seed Illinois an underdog in the second round by 8-10 points. That at least has to be factored in.

FWIW, I wouldn't drop this year's undefeated Gonzaga THAT far.  Per NET rankings they have seven "quad one" wins.  At least for now that is better than all but Ohio State.  Looking at the top-16 (so roughly top-4 seeds), the Quad-1 records (sorted by wins) are:

• 8-3 Ohio State
• 7-0 Gonzaga
• 6-0 Baylor
• 6-4 Illinois
• 5-3 Bama
• 5-5 WVU
• 4-5 Iowa
• 4-5 TxTech
• 4-3 Tennessee
• 3-1 Michigan
• 3-2 Virginia
• 2-0 Houston
• 2-2 Villanova
• 1-3 Colorado
• 0-1 Loyola-Chicago
• 0-0 Colgate

I would weight "number of quality wins" a little higher and "winning percentage in quality games" a little lower.  For right now it is irrelevant because Gonzaga is near the top in both.  The thing is that, of course, Gonzaga isn't going to climb there like the other schools are.  

Quad-1 games are:

• Home against top-30 opponents
• Neutral against top-50 opponents
• Road against top-75 opponents

For Gonzaga the only potential league games that would qualify as of current rankings are:

• H/N/R against BYU (#27)
• R against St Mary's (#65)

They already played BYU twice and at St. Mary's so they can't get any more until the WCC Tournament where they could only possibly get two more and that would require them somehow playing both BYU and St. Mary's which is pretty unlikely.  

For a B1G team:

• H/R/N against M, IL, tOSU, IA, UW, PU, RU
• R/N against PSU, UMD, IU
• R against MN

Obviously a B1G team that finishes well is going to pick up a LOT more quad-1 wins than Gonzaga no matter what Gonzaga does.  

Illinois and Baylor have six Q1 wins each and lots more opportunities.  
WVU, OkSU, Bama, and Mizzou have five Q1 wins each and lots more opportunities.  
UMD, KU, RU, IA, TxTech, OU, and TN have four Q1 wins each and lots more opportunities.  

All of this is just to say that I wouldn't seed them below every team that ends up with more Q1 wins.  I'd just balance Q1 % with Q1 wins so as of right now they'd still be a #1 seed to me because they are still top-4 in both quantity and %.  At the end of the season, we'll see.  I'll add, however, that if they were to lose an WCC game, I wouldn't seed them any higher than #2 because if you are truly one of the top-4 teams in the country and you only have a MAXIMUM of 3 quality games in your league, you need to win those three.  

(Out of curiosity, I looked at the NET. At the moment, they’ve actually got Baylor beat in Quad 1 and 2 wins. Obviously won’t hold, but interesting)

FWIW:
Baylor is a goofy outlier right now due to covid.  The rest of the B12 all have between 9-11 Q1 games except:

• Texas has 8
• TCU has 7
• ISU has 8

Baylor only has six and is so low because they, like Michigan, are on a COVID pause.  Here are the games they have "postponed":

• vs TCU #100
• @ OU #19, Q1
• vs TxTech #14, Q1
• @ WVU #16, Q1
• vs WVU #16 Q1

So there are four Q1 games "postponed".  

We have the same thing going on in the B1G due to Michigan's COVID pause.  Here are the B1G teams by Q1 (sorted by # of Q1 games):

• 14, Maryland, 4-10
• 11, Ohio State, 8-3
• 11, Northwestern, 2-9
• 10, Illinois, 6-4
• 10, Rutgers, 4-6
• 10, Penn State, 3-7
• 9, Iowa, 4-5
• 9, Purdue, 3-6
• 9, Minnesota, 3-6
• 9, Indiana, 2-7
• 8, Michigan State, 2-6
• 7, Wisconsin, 3-4
• 6, Nebraska, 0-6
• 4, Michigan, 3-1

So the two schools with the biggest COVID issues have the fewest Q1 games which makes sense.  

[ELA]

Rough finish for the Boilers in Minneapolis...

Credit to Marcus Carr for being a stone cold killa at the end. Purdue shut him down in the first meeting, so I'm sure he was motivated.

Certainly not a bad loss, but with a late lead feels like a missed opportunity given the way the team was playing--led the game from late in the first half until the last minute.

If Purdue is willing to give back any late game miracle wins, I can see what I can do about reversing this late game loss

[Temp430]

After going three weeks without a game or practice I'm thinking Michigan gets shellacked in Madison on Sunday.

[medinabuckeye1]

After going three weeks without a game or practice I'm thinking Michigan gets shellacked in Madison on Sunday.

I would guess you are right. Look at what happened to MSU in Picastaway when they came back.

[FearlessF]

yup, look how bad UNL was after their extended break

[ELA]

I would guess you are right. Look at what happened to MSU in Picastaway when they came back.

The Big Ten gave UM extra prep time after quarantine, they added a third road game to MSUs first week back

[medinabuckeye1]

This weekend's games:
Friday:

• Illinois at Nebraska, 9pm BTN

Saturday:

• Indiana at Ohio State, noon, ESPN
• Iowa at Michigan State, 2:30pm, FOX
• Northwestern at Rutgers, 5pm

Sunday:

• Michigan at Wisconsin, 1pm, CBS
• Nebraska at Penn State, 3pm, BTN
• Minnesota at Maryland, 7pm

For the first time in quite a while it actually looks like all 14 B1G teams are going to play a game this weekend.  They vary in stature, of course, but as this odd season begins to wind down these games are getting bigger for various reasons.  

CORRECTION:  I thought all 14 teams were playing because there are seven games but in fact Nebraska is playing twice (Fri/Sun) while Purdue is taking the weekend off).  

Illinois (#4 NET, #7 BPI) at Nebraska (#167 NET, 130 BPI):  
With Nebraska at 0-8 in the league this certainly looks like a mismatch but the Cornhuskers have been reasonably competitive at home.  In their four previous B1G home games they (most recent to earliest):

• Lost to Wisconsin by 13
• Lost to Indiana by 8
• Lost to Michigan State (pre-Spartan COVID pause) by 7
• Lost to Michigan by 11

Yes, they are all losses but those are some really good opponents and none of those losses were complete blowouts.  Illinois should win (and likely move to "lock" status but they shouldn't overlook the Cornhuskers.  

Indiana (#45 NET, #27 BPI) at Ohio State (#7 NET, #12 BPI):
In a quirky bit of scheduling, this is Ohio State's easiest remaining home game.  Other than this they have home games against the league's best teams (M, IA, IL) and road games against teams they probably should beat, but teams that are dangerous nonetheless (PSU, MSU).  The Buckeyes are on an absolute tear and in a little over a month they have gone from possible Tournament team to possible #1 seed by going 8-1 since losing in Minneapolis way back on January 3.  Those eight wins have included four road wins over ranked teams (#15 RU, #14 IL, #10 UW, #8 IA) which is the main reason that the Buckeyes are now in the mix for a #1 seed.  If they want to stay in that mix they most likely HAVE to win this game because there are tougher games ahead.  

From Indiana's perspective a win here would REALLY help their Tournament chances.  ESPN has them as a #10 seed right now, just on the right side of the bubble but they are an 11-8/6-6 team that just can't seem to stay on the right side of .500 in the league.  They started 0-2 in the league then won two to get to .500.  Since then they've lost a game or two to fall one or two below .500 then won the necessary one or two to get back to .500 then lost again.  Most recently they fell to 4-6 with back-to-back close losses to RU and IL at home then won back-to-back close games to get back to 6-6 where they are now.  

Of note, Indiana's last four games have all ben decided either in OT or by four or less points or both so at least Indiana fans are getting their entertainment dollar's worth!  


Iowa (#8 NET, #4 BPI) at Michigan State (#85 NET, #63 BPI):
I see this game as a potentially monumental turning point for both teams:
The Spartans looked abysmal coming out of their COVID pause.  Scheduling didn't help, but they got absolutely annihilated in Picastaway then lost soundly in Columbus but after that they put up a respectable fight against these Hawkeyes in Iowa City before winning two straight home games (UNL, PSU).  The question is whether or not Izzo's team can get a quality win.  They only have one Q1 win (Rutgers on 1/5/21).  That obviously isn't going to be enough to get them to the Tournament but they have LOTS of opportunities coming up:

• 2/13 vs IA, #8 NET, Q1
• 2/16 @ PU, #24 Q1
• 2/20 @ IU, #45 Q1
• 2/23 vs IL, #4 Q1
• 2/25 vs tOSU, #7 Q1
• 2/28 @ UMD, #43 Q1
• 3/7 vs M, #3 Q1

All seven games left on MSU's schedule (assuming none of the postponed games get rescheduled) are Q1 games.  That is a blessing and a curse, of course but if they are going to extend their (and Izzo's) remarkable stretch of NCAA Tournament appearances they are either going to have to do some serious damage in these games or else have a monster weekend in the BTT.  

Less than a month ago the Hawkeyes walked off the court in Evanston after their fifth straight league win.  The only league loss was an OT game in Minneapolis and their only other loss was a neutral site loss to the #1 team in the country.  The Hawkeyes were 12-2/6-1 and looked to be a probable #1 seed.  Since then they are 2-4.  What is worse is that their last six games, in theory, should have been relatively easy.  Four of them were at home where they went 2-2 while going 0-2 on the road.  Ie, they haven't won a road game since beating Northwestern on January 17.  Will this be a mid-season funk that they come roaring back from or is this a midseason fade that just keeps declining?  

Northwestern (#88 NET, #80 BPI) at Rutgers (#28 NET, #37 BPI):
Did you know that Northwestern started the conference season 3-0?  If that seems like a long time ago, it was.  They beat #4 MSU and #23 tOSU at home along with Indiana in Bloomington.  They had also gone 3-1 OOC with the only blemish a one-point loss to Pitt so things looked pretty good.  When they walked off the court the day after Christmas after beating the Buckeyes they were 6-1/3-0.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats that was 10 games and 10 losses ago.  Since then they have lost by blowout, they have lost by heartbreaker at the end, and they have lost in OT but the common thread is that they have lost.  Can they get off the mat a win a B1G game?  Well their last regular season game is at home against Nebraska so they probably can but they'd rather not wait that long.  

For their part, the Scarlet Knights are a lot like Indiana.  They just can't seem to break free of .500 in the league.  They started 3-1 but then lost five straight to drop to 3-6 before winning four straight (7-6) and in their most recent outing they lost in Iowa City to fall back to .500 at 7-7.  In theory Rutgers could make the Tournament even with a loss here but it would be a heck of a lot easier with a win here.  

Michigan (#3 NET, #8 BPI) at Wisconsin (#18 NET, #14 BPI):
The Wolverines haven't played a live game since January 22, that was three weeks ago as I am writing this and it will be 23 days by the time their game with Wisconsin tips off.  We all know that the Spartans set records for futility in their COVID return in Picastaway and frankly Madison is a tougher place to play and the Badgers are a better opponent.  OTOH, the Wolverines appear to be a better team than the Spartans.  I guess I should use the past tense "appeared" since nobody outside of Ann Arbor has seen a Wolverine play BB in nearly a month.  Who knows what they look like now?  

For the Badgers this game provides a much needed opportunity to get a quality win.  Wisconsin is just 3-4 in Q1 games.  The only B1G teams with less Q1 wins are the Spartans, Wildcats, and Cornhuskers.  That is not company you want to keep if you plan on going to the Tournament.  

Nebraska (#167 NET, #130 BPI) at Penn State (#31 NET, #47 BPI):
The Nittany Lions simply have to win this game.  The Worldwide leader currently lists them among the "next four out" and you can't move up from there by losing to non-tournament teams like Nebraska.  Penn State probably needs to pull off a few upsets to make it regardless but if they lose this they'll need multiple miracles down the stretch.  They just can't afford to lose.  

Minnesota (#49 NET, #56 BPI) at Maryland (#43 NET, #60 BPI):
The worldwide leader currently lists Minnesota as a #9 seed and Maryland as one of the next four out so they are both pretty close to the bubble.  Both teams have played brutal schedules.  The Terrapins are 4-10 in their 14 Q1 games while the Gophers are 4-6 in their 10.  Both have quality wins but too many losses.  Maryland is just 10-10 overall and 4-9 in the B1G while Minnesota is 13-7/6-7.  This will be an important win for the winner and a difficult loss for the loser either way because they both really need wins.  

[FearlessF]

Huskers actually looked like a basketball team tonight

improvement

[NickSmith4Three]

Thank God for Ayo.  Huskers put up a battle.

[bayareabadger]

Me earlier today: UW only winning by 15 in Nebraska seemed like a sign things are still off.

Me after seeing that score: This damn sport and league. 

[MaximumSam]

Buckeye and Hoosiers at noon.  I always circle this one because Buckeye fans really wanted Archie Miller and were mad at Gene Smith for slow playing moving on from Thad Matta.  Another strong center for the short guys to try and guard.