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Topic: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

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ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1022 on: February 09, 2021, 09:28:29 AM »
Home stretch KenPom

1. Michigan (3)
2. Illinois (4)
3. Iowa (5)
4. OSU (7)
5. Wisconsin (11)
6. Purdue (22)
7. Rutgers (24)
8. Indiana (26)
9. Penn State (30)
10. Minnesota (40)
11. Maryland (44)
12. MSU (62)
13. Northwestern (72)
14. Nebraska (128)
If there's ever been a year to scrap the auto-bids and just allow the 68 best teams in, I've never seen it.  We need to be flexible

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1023 on: February 09, 2021, 10:04:45 AM »
If there's ever been a year to scrap the auto-bids and just allow the 68 best teams in, I've never seen it.  We need to be flexible
LOL I dig it.

How many spots will the B1G get?  Maryland, MSU, Penn State, and Indiana are hovering around .500 overall and probably need a couple games over that line to get consideration for an at large bid.

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1024 on: February 09, 2021, 11:50:50 AM »
LOL I dig it.

How many spots will the B1G get?  Maryland, MSU, Penn State, and Indiana are hovering around .500 overall and probably need a couple games over that line to get consideration for an at large bid.
I've generally seen 9-11 being a mark for being in the mix

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1025 on: February 09, 2021, 01:09:13 PM »
If there's ever been a year to scrap the auto-bids and just allow the 68 best teams in, I've never seen it.  We need to be flexible
The phrasing of this makes me think you are saying this would be a chance to scrap auto bids, but I'm not 100 percent sure. 

(I'm strongly against scrapping them, but that's another matter)

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1026 on: February 09, 2021, 01:13:35 PM »
The phrasing of this makes me think you are saying this would be a chance to scrap auto bids, but I'm not 100 percent sure.

(I'm strongly against scrapping them, but that's another matter)
It was a joke, because MSU is #62

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1027 on: February 09, 2021, 01:29:09 PM »
The phrasing of this makes me think you are saying this would be a chance to scrap auto bids, but I'm not 100 percent sure.

(I'm strongly against scrapping them, but that's another matter)
I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.

 Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).

I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1028 on: February 09, 2021, 01:40:39 PM »
It was a joke, because MSU is #62
And now I’m the dummy. This week has been sluggish. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1029 on: February 09, 2021, 01:45:20 PM »
I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.

 Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).

I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
Eh. No team below an 8 seed has ever won the whole thing. 

I don't see the benefit to mediocre P5 teams. They're not going to win the whole thing, while at best they might give a few top seeds a slightly more competitive game before exiting stage left. 

If you want to scrap auto-bids entirely, that's one thing. Those tallest midgets, much like the mediocre P5 teams, aren't going to win it. But I don't see any advantage to expanding the field to give more mediocre P5 teams a bid. 

IMHO it's more meaningful for those auto-bid leagues to get to at least come in and get curb-stomped in the R64--or maybe grab a pelt before getting curbstomped in the R32--than it is for some mediocre P5 team to get that bid. At least they won their conference tournament. A mediocre P5 team that might be <.500 in conference play and narrowly above .500 overall doesn't deserve that reward.  

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1030 on: February 09, 2021, 02:17:21 PM »
I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.

 Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).

I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
This invokes some byes? Interesting. When I get a bit I’ll lay out my thoughts in a more structured way.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1031 on: February 09, 2021, 02:25:27 PM »
This invokes some byes? Interesting. When I get a bit I’ll lay out my thoughts in a more structured way.
It does, and in my opinion that is a subsidiary benefit. For the first weekend instead of having Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday sites with the two busiest days being weekdays when most people are at work I would have Thursday/Saturday/Monday and Friday/Sunday/Tuesday sites with the two busiest days being Saturday and Sunday as follows:
  • Thursday/Friday: Two games per site, eight games per day, 16 games total to get down to 64 teams.
  • Saturday/Sunday: Four games per site, 16 games per day, 32 games total to get down to 32 teams.
  • Monday/Tuesday: Two games per site, eight games per day, 16 games total to get down to 16 teams.


As a fan you could watch nearly all of these games without needing to take any time off work.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1032 on: February 09, 2021, 02:31:02 PM »
Eh. No team below an 8 seed has ever won the whole thing.
This is true, but there is a substantial drop-off in performance right at the 12/13 line approximately where the committee is forced to switch from taking the next best team to being forced to take the next least short midget. 

I'll go into more detail later but there is a reason everyone filling out a bracket at least considers a 5/12 upset but almost nobody projects a 4/13 or greater upset. Additionally, I can prove that it is NOT because 4's are dramatically better than 5's (they aren't), but rather because 13's are dramatically worse than 12's. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1033 on: February 09, 2021, 02:34:09 PM »
I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.

 Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).

I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
So, this is the way I kinda approach it. Rather than say, this is a field of 64 which must be more inclusive, what if it instead is actually a field of about 44" 

I did the math on the 2019 NCAA tournament. If you're a team in the top seven league, you had like a 45 percent chance of getting in (that might be a little muddled because 22-13 Oregon was an auto bid). This, this seems fair. If you're in a better league, you've got a 60-65 percent chance. If you're in the Pac-12 or something, less than 25.

So you assemble your field with like six non-top-7 league teams in that top 44 (Belmont was a generous add). You have four leagues that snuck in second teams, maybe one as a non-bid thief. This feels right. I don't know that I need 17-15 IU. 

Now, if we just went small boat, we have some byes, get to 32, then go from there. But instead of byes, we get byes were you have to play someone bad. It turns byes into TV content. Some of it isn't good, but occasionally it is. If you got a bye and didn't win, well that's on you. You give two thirds of the sport a feeling of having a seat at the table. You create some other questions of unfairness, but in the end "I went to a school where being slightly above mediocrity gets me in" and not making it, the unfairness toward that group is not so concerning, at least to me. (On the mid-major side, you have those rare, two good enough team small conferences or one powerhouse squeezing out some solid 8-seed type strength team)

If those kids or their coaches wanted to take advantage of the lower level of competition offered at mid-majors, they likely had the option and still could have the option. It just all kind of fits. 

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1034 on: February 09, 2021, 03:21:36 PM »

Now, if we just went small boat, we have some byes, get to 32, then go from there. But instead of byes, we get byes were you have to play someone bad. It turns byes into TV content. Some of it isn't good, but occasionally it is. If you got a bye and didn't win, well that's on you. You give two thirds of the sport a feeling of having a seat at the table. You create some other questions of unfairness, but in the end "I went to a school where being slightly above mediocrity gets me in" and not making it, the unfairness toward that group is not so concerning, at least to me. (On the mid-major side, you have those rare, two good enough team small conferences or one powerhouse squeezing out some solid 8-seed type strength team)
That's my feeling.

I certainly don't want to see even worse P5 schools getting in.  So if it's between actual byes and de facto byes, with a slim chance of fun, I'll take Option B.

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1035 on: February 09, 2021, 03:54:07 PM »
The NCAA Tourney is one of the greatest creations in sports history and I'm still annoyed they changed it to 68 teams from 64. Every team has a chance to earn their way into it. It's uber fair. It's the fairest. It's also the most fun. When you have the most fair and most fun postseason in sports, you don't go around changing things.

 

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