2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[MaximumSam]

This is really just the universe conspiring for Sparty to kick the hell out of OSU this weekend

[ELA]

Izzo committed to taking Loyer/Kithier over Duane Washington/Trayveon Williams


https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1354959218164568073?s=19

[ELA]

This is really just the universe conspiring for Sparty to kick the hell out of OSU this weekend

Take the name off the front of the jersey.  Nebraska is the only team in the Big Ten worse than MSU

[Brutus Buckeye]

I just can't believe that the Knights held the Spartans under 40. 

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/Wil__Hunter/status/1355178625310597120?s=19

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm trying to make sense of the standings given the highly variable B1G schedules that have been played so far.  Here is what I have:

The .500+ and sub .500 teams are self-explanatory.  For this purpose the top-10 includes Michigan down through 3-7 Maryland but does NOT include 3-7 Northwestern.  I'm making a distinction between the two 3-7 teams on the basis of conference SoS.  Maryland's 3-7 record came in eight games against the .500+ teams (2-6) and all 10 against the top-10 (3-7) while Northwestern has played only seven .500+ teams (1-6) and only eight against the top-10 (2-6).  

Maryland and Minnesota appear to be better than their records because they have only played two games each against the sub .500 teams and Minnesota has only played one of the bottom-4 while Maryland hasn't played any.  

It seems odd that Iowa has managed to play eight conference games while only playing once against the .500+ teams.  Every other team has at least two such games and some other teams have a LOT more:  Maryland has eight, Minnesota and Northwestern have seven, Rutgers has six, etc.  

Wisconsin I am not so sure about.  They are REALLY good against the bad teams.  They are undefeated against the bottom-4 which puts them in good company with Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, and Purdue and they have the best record in the league against the sub .500 teams at 7-1 but their 0-2 record against the .500+ teams is concerning and their 4-3 record against the top-10 is a step below the Wolverines and Hawkeyes, tied with Ohio State.  

BPI and KenPom apparently like PSU better than Maryland but at least within the league I just don't see it.  Maryland has a better record (3-7 vs 2-6) and did it against better opposition.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Standings and games through Thursday of next week:

• 8-1 Michigan:  
• 6-2 Iowa:  @IL, vsMSU, vstOSU
• 7-3 Wisconsin:  @PSU, vsPSU
• 6-3 Illinois:  vsIA, @IU
• 7-4 Ohio State:  vsMSU, @IA
• 6-4 Purdue:  vsMN, @UMD
• 5-6 Rutgers:  @NU, vsMN
• 4-5 Minnesota:  @PU, @RU
• 4-5 Indiana:  vsIL
• 3-7 Maryland:  vsPU
• 3-7 Northwestern: vsRU 
• 2-5 Michigan State:  @tOSU, @IA, vsUNL
• 2-6 Penn State:  vsUW, @UW
• 0-5 Nebraska:  @MSU

Iowa and Michigan State each have some seriously quick turnarounds coming up:

• Friday, 1/29:  Iowa visits Illinois
• Sunday, 1/31:  Michigan State visits Ohio State
• Tuesday, 2/2:  Iowa hosts Michigan State
• Thursday, 2/4:  Iowa hosts Ohio State

That could be a factor in Ohio State's game in Iowa City on Thursday.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Race for the top-4 slots (and a bye into Friday of the BTT):
Michigan is a pretty sure bet at this point.  That could change, obviously, but right now they are two games ahead of 5th place Ohio State and 2.5 games ahead of sixth place Purdue.  

Iowa would get the #2 seed if the Tournament started today but their situation is fairly tenuous.  They would win a tie with Purdue based on their H2H Home win over the Boilermakers but, as noted upthread, that is Iowa's only game so far against a team better than .500 in the B1G.  They still have to travel to Ann Arbor, Madison, Champaign, and Columbus and they also host the Buckeyes so things could change quickly for the Hawkeyes.  

Wisconsin would get the #3 seed if the Tournament started today but they are 0-2 against .500+ teams so they would lose any tie.  They still have to travel to Iowa City, Champaign, and West Lafayette as well as host the Wolverines, Hawkeyes, and Illini so things could change quickly for the Badgers as well.  

If the Tournament started today the Illini would get the #4 seed but they are only 1/2 game ahead of the Boilermakers and less than 1/2 game ahead of the Buckeyes.  Ties:

• Illinois would win a tie with Purdue based on their home win over the Boilermakers and lose a tie with tOSU based on their home loss to the Buckeyes.  They visit Columbus at the end of the regular season.  
• Ohio State would win a tie with Illinois based on their win in Champaign but they play Illinois again in March.  The Buckeyes would lose a tie with Purdue based on being swept by the Boilermakers.  
• Purdue would win a tie with tOSU based on their sweep of the Buckeyes and lose a tie with Illinois based on their road loss to the Illini.  

After Purdue there is a 1.5 game dropoff to the 7th place Scarlet Knights so for right now I would say that Michigan looks solid for one of the top-4 seeds (probably #1) while Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, and Purdue are a five-team scramble for the other three.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated Bracketology from the Worldwide leader:

• #1 Michigan
• #2 Iowa
• #3 Ohio State, Wisconsin
• #4 Illinois
• #6 Minnesota
• #7 Purdue
• #10 Indiana (last four byes)
• #11 Rutgers (last four byes)
• #12 Maryland (last four in)

We no longer have any teams among the first or next four out so our bubble teams are down to just IU and RU among the last four byes and UMD among the last four in.  

FWIW, those seeds would typically yield:

• 6.6 R32 teams
• 3.91 S16 teams
• 2.1 E8 teams
• 1.0 F4 teams
• 0.53 NCG teams
• 0.27 National Champions

If you want to see the math behind that, I can show it.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

The positive for Purdue is their remaining schedule at this point is significantly easier than their first half conference schedule.

• One game against 0-5 Nebraska
• One game against 2-6 Penn State
• Two games against 2-5 Michigan State
• One game against 3-7 Northwestern
• One game against 3-7 Maryland 
• One game against 4-5 Indiana (home)
• Two games against #21 4-5 Minnesota (home & away, obv)
• One game against #14 7-3 Wisconsin (home)

Obviously I think Minnesota is better than their record, but that means only one game in the next 10 for the Boilers against a team that is currently >.500 in the conference, and that's at home. 

I do worry that two of the next four are against Minnesota, and Sasha Stefanovich's return is TBD. That's hard because we're without Sasha for tomorrow's game at home, and then when we have him back it'll be on the road. Very easy to go 0-2 against Minnesota given that split, and the fact that they've knocked off some big names. Purdue will be hoping that their inconsistency at least allows us to split against them. 

But I think Purdue should be looking at the rest of the schedule and think that going 5-5 from here would be about the low point, with 7-3 or 8-2 not out of the realm of possibility. 

Even 5-5 would be 11-9 in conference, and IMHO still solidly in the tourney. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Even 5-5 would be 11-9 in conference, and IMHO still solidly in the tourney.

That would be EASILY in the tournament IMHO.  

If you look at the Bracketology post that I did above, per the worldwide leader all of the teams from Purdue (6-4) up are in without even being on the bubble.  The Bubble teams are all sub .500 in the league:

• 5-6 Rutgers
• 4-5 Indiana
• 3-7 Maryland

Given the strength of the league I would think that anything over .500 in the league will be easily in with teams at or a little below .500 on the bubble.  

I'm analyzing my team about the same way that you are analyzing yours, currently 7-4:

• One game against 2-6 PSU (away):  In theory this should be easy but the Buckeyes just barely beat them at home so who knows.  
• Two games against 2-5 MSU:  Based on MSU's performance against RU, these should be easy wins but I am certainly not confident that Izzo will not get this team together.  
• One game against 3-7 Maryland (away):  I think that Maryland is better than their record but oddly the Terps seem to be better away from home so who knows.  
• One game against 4-5 Indiana (home):  This should probably be a win but not easy.  
• One game against 6-3 Illinois (home):  The Buckeyes beat them at their place so they *SHOULD* get the sweep.  
• Two games against 6-2 Iowa:  I'm not convinced that the Hawkeyes are as good as their record, but they are a really good team even if not.  Still, the road game will catch Iowa on short rest due to COVID rescheduling so that might help, we'll see.  
• One game against 8-1 Michigan (home):  This will obviously be a tough game but at least it is at home.  It would be great to upset the rivals in such a great season for them.  

The Buckeyes *SHOULD* finish at least 4-5 and that would equate to a final B1G record of 11-9.  I am hoping for one of the top-4 seeds which will probably require more like a 6-3 finish for a 13-7 final record or better.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Standings and games through Thursday of next week:

• 8-1 Michigan: 
• 6-2 Iowa:  @IL, vsMSU, vstOSU
• 7-3 Wisconsin:  @PSU, vsPSU
• 6-3 Illinois:  vsIA, @IU
• 7-4 Ohio State:  vsMSU, @IA
• 6-4 Purdue:  vsMN, @UMD
• 5-6 Rutgers:  @NU, vsMN
• 4-5 Minnesota:  @PU, @RU
• 4-5 Indiana:  vsIL
• 3-7 Maryland:  vsPU
• 3-7 Northwestern: vsRU
• 2-5 Michigan State:  @tOSU, @IA, vsUNL
• 2-6 Penn State:  vsUW, @UW
• 0-5 Nebraska:  @MSU

Looking at each of the teams and what they have coming up:
Iowa:
I noted above that Iowa has only played one .500+ B1G team.  That is about to change quickly.  They are at Illinois (6-3) tonight and host tOSU (7-4) on Thursday with MSU (2-5) in between on Tuesday night.  I have no idea what to expect.  Honestly I feel like neither 3-0 nor 0-3 are completely out of the question and there is a HUMONGOUS difference between 9-2, second place, and likely Michigan's only serious contender vs 6-5 and in 5th or 6th place.  

Wisconsin/Penn State:
Due to COVID issues these two have an unusual set of back-to-back games against each other.  Wisconsin's specialty has been beating the not-so-good teams (they are tops in the league against the sub .500 teams) and they need to keep it up to keep on the pace with Michigan and (possibly) Iowa.  For Penn State, we are getting to make-or-break time.  The computers seem to still kinda like the Nittany Lions but they have fallen to 2-6 in the league, their only wins were home games against RU and NU, and they are ahead of only Nebraska in the standings.  Somehow, someway they need to find some more wins if they want to get to the bubble.  

Illinois:
The Illini are 1-1 in their two games against the B1G's .500+ teams with the win coming at home over Purdue almost a month ago.  Between postponements (UNL, MSU), losses (vs UMD, vs tOSU), and non-quality opponents (@NU, vs PSU) the Illini haven't experienced a quality win in almost a month.  Iowa is probably a better team but it is at home.  Indiana is probably an inferior team but it is on the road.  Considering that, I could see anything from 0-2 to 2-0.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes have won five of their last six and with the way MSU looked last night and the fact that Iowa will be on a short-turnaround I could see them winning both of these to move to 9-4, into the top-4, and close to locking up a bid.  OTOH, the Buckeyes barely survived PSU at home last time out and last I checked Izzo was still coaching in East Lansing so they could also lose both.  

Purdue:
The Boilermakers' next two games are against sub .500 teams but these are some odd sub .500 teams who each own some pretty impressive wins so I hardly consider this an easy week for them.  Just like Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State I don't think that either 0-2 nor 2-0 is outside the realm of realisitc.  

Rutgers:
Bracketologists generally concur that Rutgers is very close to the knife edge of the bubble (either barely in or barely out) so every game is critical.  A loss to Northwestern would knock them out for now while a win over Minnesota would shore up their status for now.  1-1 moves them on another week at the edge.  

Minnesota:
As I noted upthread the Gophers have played a brutal schedule and it doesn't get any easier with a pair of road games against probable (PU) and possible (RU) tournament teams.  

Indiana:
Much like Rutgers, the Hoosiers are barely in or barely out depending on who you ask so every game is critical.  A win over Illinois would certainly help!

Maryland:
The Terps are about to play their NINTH game against .500+ B1G teams.  Compare that to Iowa who has only played one or M, UW, IL, and MSU who have only played two each.  That is a tough schedule which explains why they are a 3-7 team that is apparently on the bubble.  The problem is that they can't get too far below .500 themselves.  

Northwestern:
Once upon a time the Wildcats were 3-0 and in first place in the B1G with wins over MSU, IU, and tOSU.  Back then things looked good for them.  Since then . . . seven straight losses.  Can they get off the mat?  

Michigan State:
The Spartans went 6-0 OOC including impressive (at the time) wins over ND and at Dook but then started league play 0-3 (@NU, vsUW, @MN).  Then they rebounded to win two straight (@UNL, vsRU) in early January.  Then they suffered a close loss at home to Purdue (55-54) on January 8 to fall to 8-4/2-4 then they were off for almost three weeks due to COVID.  Last night they came back and it was ugly.  Rutgers got their first ever win over MSU and allowed the fewest points they have EVER allowed in a B1G game by beating MSU 67-37.  That was also Rutgers' largest ever MOV in a B1G game.  Obviously being that "other team" for somebody else's records is never good.  Following that up with two more road games in Columbus and Iowa City could be a rough road for Izzo's team.  

Nebraska:
Earlier I had written that Nebraska was travelling to East Lansing next week but it appears that is off due to COVID so it looks like Nebraska will not play again until at least next weekend.  

[medinabuckeye1]

With Illinois' win over Iowa the first place Wolverines now have a 1.5 game lead over second place.

Symmetrically, seventh place Rutgers is 1.5 games behind sixth place. 

Between the first place Wolverines and the seventh place Scarlet Knights there are five teams all within one game of each other for second through sixth place.

[bayareabadger]

If UW could go ahead and sweep PSU, I'd be appreciative.

Badgers are No. 1 in the conference in remaining SOS by a hair over MSU (sorry ELA). Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota are on the other end there.