I might add Iowa to the list of toss-ups. We won @Iowa 2 years ago and vsIowa in 2018, so I think somehow the Brohm/Ferentz matchup might be a little in our favor despite the talent differential. And with Iowa losing so much to graduation or the draft, I'm not sure what their team will look like next year.
The flipside is that I'd probably drop Minnesota from the list of wins to toss-ups. They seemed to turn a lot around late in the season, and they've got 9 returning starters on offense and 8 on defense, while Purdue will be replacing our QB and have a lot of questions at OL, particularly 4 games into the season. Their problem [defense] seemed to be fixed with the firing of their DC, and if they can carry that improvement into 2019, they might be disruptive to our offense like they were this year.
That would be 4-2-6. If we split the toss-ups evenly, it's 7-5. If the toss-ups mirror our home/away split and we go 4-2 in the toss-ups, that's an 8-4 result.
As I said, I think that's a fair expectation for where we'll be. I do think there's more "upside" potential in there than downside, so I'd consider 8-4 or 9-3 more likely than 6-6 or 5-7.