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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
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ELA · « **Reply #112 on:** August 15, 2019, 06:15:09 PM »

OCTOBER 20

Georgia (7-0)
Clemson (6-1)
Syracuse (7-0)
Alabama (6-1)
WISCONSIN (7-0)
Texas (6-1)
Oklahoma (6-1)
Texas A&M (6-1)
Notre Dame (5-1)
OHIO STATE (6-1)
Utah (7-0)
Washington (7-1)
Oregon (6-1)
Mississippi State (6-1)
LSU (5-2)
Missouri (7-0) 17
Boston College (7-0)
Fresno State (6-0)
PENN STATE (6-1)
Florida (5-2)
MICHIGAN (5-2)
West Virginia (5-2)
Iowa State (6-1)
Oklahoma State (5-2)
IOWA (5-2)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #113 on:** August 15, 2019, 06:20:05 PM »

Not many undefeateds left.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #114 on:** August 16, 2019, 10:32:40 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2019, 06:20:05 PM

Not many undefeateds left.

I noticed the same thing. The total number of potential undefeated teams is even lower:

#1 Georga or #16 Mizzou
#3 Syracuse or #17 Boston College
#5 Wisconsin (only remaining B1G undefeated)
#11 Utah (only remaining PAC undefeated)

That is it for P5 undefeated teams. Additionally:

UGA and Mizzou are both in the SEC-E and play on 11-9 in Athens. The SEC has three 1-loss teams (Bama, aTm, MissSt). Bama and MissSt play on 11/16, aTm and MissSt play on 10/26.
Syracuse and Boston College are in the same ACC Division and play 11/2 in Syracuse.
Thus, by 11/9 there can only possibly be four P5 undefeateds (either UGA or Mizzou from the SEC, either Cuse or BC from the ACC, Wisconsin from the B1G, and Utah from the PAC).
Clemson, Boston College, and Syracuse are in the same ACC Division (Atlantic, I had to look it up) so while the Tigers are ranked #2 in @ELA 's simulation they have a big problem. They can't make the ACCCG without Syracuse losing at least two ACC games. They might get in anyway as a 1-loss non-Champion but it could be tricky especially if Syracuse wins the ACC with zero or one loss. One would assume that, in that case, the Orange would get in ahead of Clemson and a 1-loss non-champion Clemson would not get in ahead of an undefeated or 1-loss SEC Champ or a potential undefeated Wisconsin.

fezzador · « **Reply #115 on:** August 16, 2019, 10:44:57 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2019, 05:05:44 PM

That's a P5/G5 matchup.

Let the Big 12 poach CSU and BYU. CSU has the bones to be competitive (with a shiny new stadium), and BYU is already a de facto P5 program. Also, I think the Big 12 is a better fit for BYU culturally than the PAC, as the Big 12 is far more religious as a whole, and will almost certainly honor BYU's desire to sit out on Sundays.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #116 on:** August 16, 2019, 11:05:36 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 15, 2019, 05:48:27 PM

This will create a MAJOR shakeup in the top-25:
For #2 tOSU and #4 Oregon this is their first loss so they should probably only slide to about #10ish.
For #6 LSU, #13 Michigan, and #15 WVU this is their second loss so this should probably drop them to about #20ish.
#16 Washington has a huge win and a bunch of fortuitous losses in front of them so they should climb into the top-10.
#21 Penn State and #22 MissSt have big wins and will move up considerably.
#23 Baylor and #25 Purdue drop out.

So my guess is:
Georgia
Syracuse
Clemson
Alabama
Washington
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Texas
aTm
ND
Oregon
Ohio State
Mississippi State
Penn State
Utah
Missouri
Fresno State
Boston College
Florida
LSU
Michigan
Iowa State
Iowa
Northwestern
OkSU

i know it's after ela already posted, but no way #6 lsu drops to 20 after losing to a top 25 team, even with 2 loses. i think 15-16 is more reasonable.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #117 on:** August 16, 2019, 11:12:10 AM »

It is fun to play out a hypothetical ahead of time, thanks for doing this. I doubt we'd have this few undefeateds at this point. Often by week 8-9 or so folks gnash molars about how MANY are left and what a crisis it will be, and then Upset Saturday hits. Last year was unusual/atypical.

I think the mean is about 2 undefeateds left among the P5s after 13 games, often one.

I think ELA will have UF beating UGA, bbut Mizzou is about to get clipped, I suspect.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #118 on:** August 16, 2019, 11:38:24 AM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on August 16, 2019, 11:05:36 AM

i know it's after ela already posted, but no way #6 lsu drops to 20 after losing to a top 25 team, even with 2 loses. i think 15-16 is more reasonable.

I could see it. ELA has Michigan at 21, with their losses being only to top teams (#5 and #19).

rolltidefan · « **Reply #119 on:** August 16, 2019, 11:47:49 AM »

# of undefeateds looks normal to me.

currently has 9 total, 6 p5, 3 g5.

at this time during last 10 years we had these undefeateds:

2018 - 5 total - 3 p5, 2 g5
2017 -8 total, 6 p5, 2 g5
2016 - 9 total, 7 p5, 2 g5
2015 - 12 total, 8 p5, 4 g5
2014 - 4 total, 3 p5, 1 g5
2013 - 10 total, 8 p5, 2 g5
2012 - 11 total, 10 p5, 1 g5
2011 - 8 total, 7 p5, 1 g5
2010 - 7 total, 6 p5, 1 g5
2009 - 7 total, 4 p5, 3 g5

(i might have missed on p5/g5 breakdown, couldn't remember exactly when utah/tcu/etc changed to p5 confs)

maybe it's just cause it's a lot of new faces with 0 losses so far. bc, cuse, mizzou replaced bama, clemson, osu, etc.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #120 on:** August 16, 2019, 11:55:49 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2019, 11:38:24 AM

I could see it. ELA has Michigan at 21, with their losses being only to top teams (#5 and #19).

yes, but mich was #13 at time of 2nd loss. i'd expect both to drop about 8-10 spots, which they both did. and would put lsu in the 14-16 range, and mich in the 21-23 range.

wouldn't be unheard of for lsu to drop that much, but it'd be unexpected imo. would need a massive blowout.

ELA · « **Reply #121 on:** August 16, 2019, 04:53:30 PM »

WEEK 9
Thursday, October 24
Houston d. SMU

Friday, October 25

Colorado d. USC

Saturday, October 26
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
#10 OHIO STATE 38, #5 WISCONSIN 26

#2 Clemson d. #17 Boston College
#3 Syracuse d. Florida State
#4 Alabama d. Arkansas
#6 Texas d. TCU
#7 Oklahoma d. Kansas State
#8 Texas A&M d. #14 Mississippi State
#21 MICHIGAN d. #9 Notre Dame
#11 Utah d. California
#13 Oregon d. Washington State
#15 LSU d. Auburn
Kentucky d. #16 Missouri
#18 Fresno State d. Colorado State
#19 PENN STATE d. MICHIGAN STATE
#23 Iowa State d. #24 Oklahoma State
#25 IOWA d. NORTHWESTERN

Appalachian State d. South Alabama
Arizona State d. UCLA
Arkansas State d. Texas State
Army d. San Jose State
Buffalo d. Central Michigan
Central Florida d. Temple
Duke d. North Carolina
FIU d. Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic d. Old Dominion
Georgia Southern d. NM State
Hawaii d. New Mexico
Kent State d. Miami(Ohio)
Louisiana Tech d. UTEP
Marshall d. Western Kentucky
Massachusetts d. Connecticut
Memphis d. Tulsa
Miami d. Pittsburgh
MINNESOTA d. MARYLAND
NEBRASKA d. INDIANA
North Texas d. Charlotte
Northern Illinois d. Akron
Ohio d. Ball State
PURDUE d. ILLINOIS
RUTGERS d. Liberty
South Florida d. East Carolina
Southern Miss d. Rice
Stanford d. Arizona
Tennessee d. South Carolina
Texas Tech d. Kansas
Toledo d. Eastern Michigan
Troy d. Georgia State
Tulane d. Navy
UNLV d. San Diego State
Utah State d. Air Force
Virginia d. Louisville
Western Michigan d. Bowling Green
Wyoming d. Nevada

ELA · « **Reply #122 on:** August 16, 2019, 06:08:07 PM »

ACC
ATLANTIC

Syracuse (4-0) 8-0
Clemson (5-1) 7-1
Boston College (4-1) 7-1
Wake Forest (2-2) 5-2
Florida State (3-3) 5-3
NC State (0-3) 3-4
Louisville (0-5) 2-6

COASTAL

Miami (5-0) 7-1
Duke (3-2) 5-3
Virginia (3-2) 5-3
Virginia Tech (2-2) 5-2
Georgia Tech (1-3) 3-4
Pittsburgh (1-3) 3-5
North Carolina (0-6) 0-8

BIG XII

Iowa State (4-1) 7-1
Oklahoma (4-1) 7-1
Texas (4-1) 7-1
West Virginia (3-1) 5-2
Baylor (2-2) 5-2
TCU (2-2) 4-3
Oklahoma State (2-3) 5-3
Texas Tech (2-3) 4-4
Kansas State (0-4) 2-5
Kansas (0-5) 2-6

BIG TEN
EAST

Ohio State (4-1) 7-1
Penn State (4-1) 7-1
Michigan (3-2) 6-2
Maryland (2-3) 3-5
Indiana (1-4) 4-4
Michigan State (1-4) 4-4
Rutgers (0-5) 2-6

WEST

Wisconsin (4-1) 7-1
Iowa (4-1) 6-2
Minnesota (4-1) 6-2
Purdue (3-2) 6-2
Northwestern (3-2) 4-3
Nebraska (2-3) 5-3
Illinois (0-5) 3-5

PAC 12
NORTH

Oregon (4-1) 7-1
Washington (4-1) 7-1
Stanford (4-2) 5-3
California (2-3) 5-3
Washington State (2-3) 5-3
Oregon State (0-4) 1-6

SOUTH

Utah (5-0) 8-0
Arizona State (3-2) 5-3
Colorado (2-3) 4-4
USC (2-3) 2-6
Arizona (1-4) 3-5
UCLA (1-4) 2-6

SEC
EAST

Georgia (4-0) 7-0
Missouri (3-1) 7-1
Florida (3-2) 6-2
Kentucky (3-3) 5-3
Vanderbilt (1-3) 3-4
Tennessee (1-4) 4-4
South Carolina (1-5) 3-5

WEST

Texas A&M (5-0) 7-1
Alabama (4-1) 7-1
LSU (3-1) 6-2
Mississippi State (3-2) 6-2
Auburn (2-3) 4-4
Ole Miss (1-4) 2-6
Arkansas (0-5) 3-5

AMERICAN
EAST

South Florida (4-0) 6-2
Cincinnati (3-0) 6-1
Central Florida (3-1) 7-1
Temple (3-1) 6-2
East Carolina (0-4) 3-5
Connecticut (0-4) 1-7

WEST

Memphis (3-1) 6-2
Tulane (3-1) 5-3
Houston (2-2) 3-5
SMU (1-3) 3-5
Tulsa (1-3) 2-6
Navy (1-4) 3-4

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

Florida Atlantic (4-0) 5-3
FIU (4-1) 6-2
Marshall (2-2) 4-4
Western Kentucky (2-3) 3-5
Middle Tennessee (1-3) 2-6
Charlotte (0-4) 2-6
Old Dominion (0-4) 1-7

WEST

UAB (4-0) 7-0
Louisiana Tech (4-0) 6-2
North Texas (3-1) 5-3
Southern Miss (3-1) 4-4
UTEP (1-3) 2-5
UTSA (1-3) 2-5
Rice (0-4) 0-8

MID-AMERICAN
EAST

Buffalo (4-0) 7-1
Ohio (3-1) 5-3
Kent State (2-2) 3-5
Bowling Green (1-3) 2-6
Akron (1-3) 1-7
Miami(Ohio) (0-4) 1-7

WEST

Western Michigan (4-1) 6-3
Toledo (3-1) 5-3
Northern Illinois (3-1) 4-4
Central Michigan (2-3) 4-5
Ball State (1-3) 3-5
Eastern Michigan (1-3) 2-6

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

Utah State (4-0) 5-2
Boise State (3-0) 6-1
Wyoming (3-1) 5-3
New Mexico (1-3) 3-5
Air Force (1-4) 2-6
Colorado State (0-4) 1-7

WEST

Fresno State (3-0) 7-0
Hawaii (3-1) 6-2
San Jose State (2-2) 4-4
San Diego State (2-3) 4-4
Nevada (1-3) 3-5
UNLV (1-3) 3-5

SUN BELT
EAST

Appalachian State (4-0) 7-0
Troy (3-0) 6-1
Georgia Southern (3-0) 5-2
Coastal Carolina (1-2) 4-3
Georgia State (0-4) 1-7

WEST

Arkansas State (3-1) 5-3
UL Monroe (2-1) 4-3
Texas State (1-2) 2-5
UL Lafayette (0-3) 2-5
South Alabama (0-4) 1-7

INDEPENDENTS

Army (7-1)
Notre Dame (5-2)
Liberty (3-5)
Massachusetts (3-5)
BYU (2-5)
NM State (1-7)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #123 on:** August 16, 2019, 06:21:27 PM »

I just noticed UNC is 0-8. Folks in Chapel Hill are not expecting that (duh).

ELA · « **Reply #124 on:** August 16, 2019, 06:26:33 PM »

OCTOBER 27

Georgia (7-0)
Syracuse (8-0)
Clemson (7-1)
Alabama (7-1)
Texas (7-1)
Oklahoma (7-1)
Texas A&M (7-1)
OHIO STATE (7-1)
Utah (8-0)
WISCONSIN (7-1)
Washington (7-1)
Oregon (7-1)
LSU (6-2)
PENN STATE (7-1)
Florida (5-2)
MICHIGAN (6-2)
Notre Dame (5-2)
Fresno State (7-0)
Mississippi State (6-2)
Missouri (7-1)
West Virginia (5-2)
Iowa State (7-1)
Boston College (7-1)
IOWA (6-2)
Miami (7-1)

FearlessF · « **Reply #125 on:** August 16, 2019, 08:43:29 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 16, 2019, 06:21:27 PM

I just noticed UNC is 0-8. Folks in Chapel Hill are not expecting that (duh).

Horns fans might

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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions

ELA

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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fezzador

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rolltidefan

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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rolltidefan

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ELA

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ELA

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Cincydawg

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ELA

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FearlessF

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