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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions

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rolltidefan

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #70 on: August 13, 2019, 05:15:21 PM »
it's not impossible. i mean, you have to go all the way back to... the last game for bama to get blown out. but seriously, aside from clemson, the last time bama just got their doors beat off was like 2001 or something ridiculous. that includes all of the shula years, btw. bama just doesn't get drummed often.
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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #71 on: August 13, 2019, 05:40:55 PM »
Ha typo.  31-30
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #72 on: August 13, 2019, 07:22:26 PM »
31-3 looks rational to me.  That probably is what UGA would be beating Bama by before they bring in their backup QB.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #73 on: August 13, 2019, 07:23:05 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2019, 04:30:03 PM
well, 9 of those 14 years there was a loss to FSU.

That was going to happen to most teams regardless of schedule
I think the point is that with the elite ending the year with 4 "big" games (rival, CG, Semi, NC), your champion becomes one of attrition, and not necessarily the best team playing its best.  
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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #74 on: August 13, 2019, 07:39:01 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2019, 07:23:05 PM
I think the point is that with the elite ending the year with 4 "big" games (rival, CG, Semi, NC), your champion becomes one of attrition, and not necessarily the best team playing its best. 
Eh, but looking at it another way, if the best teams are playing each other at the end, the team playing the best at the end wins.

Better than winning your big games early, and coasting through.  Maybe you get a midseason major injury, and it doesn't impact your conference title hopes.
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rolltidefan

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #75 on: August 13, 2019, 08:21:33 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 13, 2019, 05:40:55 PM
Ha typo.  31-30
Totally unbelievable. 
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #76 on: August 13, 2019, 08:29:44 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2019, 07:23:05 PM
I think the point is that with the elite ending the year with 4 "big" games (rival, CG, Semi, NC), your champion becomes one of attrition, and not necessarily the best team playing its best. 
I understand and I agree to an extent

13 of 14 seasons the Gators beat USCe & Vandy

7 & 7 in bowls - that's pretty good regardless
As I said, most of it was simply playing a dern fine Nole squad
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #77 on: August 13, 2019, 11:11:21 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 13, 2019, 07:39:01 PM
Eh, but looking at it another way, if the best teams are playing each other at the end, 

Right, but neither team is playing at its best. 


It's like 2 boxers in the 13th round rather than the 3rd round.  Not saying it's better or worse, but it's definitely different.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #78 on: August 13, 2019, 11:28:14 PM »
the conferences like to match up the best teams at the end for drama of the conference championship and the hope of a national title 

obviously, this is how the game became "the game"

Nebraska/Oklahoma was at the end of the season to decide the conference

Texas/Oklahoma was early because it was a non-con game

the SEC tries to be smart by scheduling non-con cupcakes late in the season

apparently the Big Ten would rather have great late season TV ratings between highly ranked teams
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #79 on: August 14, 2019, 08:08:50 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2019, 11:28:14 PM
the conferences like to match up the best teams at the end for drama of the conference championship and the hope of a national title

obviously, this is how the game became "the game"
I know tOSU/M have been playing in late November since the 40's,long before TV ratings factored in.At that time it wasn't a slam dunk tOSU was the 2nd best team in the conference,Minnestota and later Sparty had some stout squads who had National aspirations.Sprinkled in with Indiana,Purdue,Iowa,UW & the Illini
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #80 on: August 14, 2019, 09:35:39 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2019, 11:11:21 PM
Right, but neither team is playing at its best. 

It's like 2 boxers in the 13th round rather than the 3rd round.  Not saying it's better or worse, but it's definitely different.
Agreed.  

In addition, the two teams aren't necessarily in the same "round" so to speak.  Ie, Florida has scheduled themselves what is, for all intents and purposes, a 'bye' the week before rivalry week.  Thus, assuming a CG appearance and NC run, the NC Game is the fourth straight extremely intense game:
  • FSU
  • SECCG
  • CFP Semi-final
  • CFP NC

Suppose that Ohio State and Florida play in the CFP NC in 2025.  While Florida would be in their fourth straight extremely intense game, Ohio State could be in their sixth straight extremely intense game:
  • Penn State
  • Michigan State
  • Michigan
  • B1GCG
  • CFP Semi-final
  • CFP NC

I would see that as an advantage for Florida and it doesn't have to be that way.  Why give up that advantage willingly?  

Florida altered their schedule to get out of this exact problem and my contention is that what the Gators did was smart, we should copy them!  

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #81 on: August 14, 2019, 09:43:57 AM »
I still prefer that our game occupy the final weekend, but some argue Michigan would (currently) be better off with it mid-season. That argument goes something like this: OSU has been the better recruiter this decade, but this margin shows more clearly in the teams' depth charts than their September starter lists. So playing when banged up, which is most likely at the end of the year, activates alarm bells at a higher rate for Michigan than for OSU.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #82 on: August 14, 2019, 09:47:15 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 14, 2019, 08:08:50 AM
I know tOSU/M have been playing in late November since the 40's,long before TV ratings factored in.At that time it wasn't a slam dunk tOSU was the 2nd best team in the conference,Minnestota and later Sparty had some stout squads who had National aspirations.Sprinkled in with Indiana,Purdue,Iowa,UW & the Illini
It is even longer than that.  THE GAME was moved to the end of the season in 1935.  1934 appears to be a transitional year with THE GAME second to last for both teams before NU for Michigan and Iowa for Ohio State.  

From joining the Western Conference through 1934 Ohio State ended with:
  • 1913-1916:  Northwestern
  • 1917:  Camp Sherman (this was probably a late addition due to WWI)
  • 1918:  Michigan (another year with schedules altered by the war)
  • 1919-1930:  Illinois
  • 1931:  Minnesota
  • 1932-1933:  Illinois
  • 1934:  Iowa

From rejoining the Western Conference through 1934 Michigan ended with:
  • 1917:  Northwestern
  • 1918:  Ohio State
  • 1919-1923:  Minnesota
  • 1924:  Iowa
  • 1925-1927:  Minnesota
  • 1928-1929:  Iowa
  • 1930:  Chicago
  • 1931:  Wisconsin
  • 1932:  Minnesota
  • 1933-1934:  Northwestern

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #83 on: August 14, 2019, 09:51:09 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 14, 2019, 09:43:57 AM
I still prefer that our game occupy the final weekend, but some argue Michigan would (currently) be better off with it mid-season. That argument goes something like this: OSU has been the better recruiter this decade, but this margin shows more clearly in the teams' depth charts than their September starter lists. So playing when banged up, which is most likely at the end of the year, activates alarm bells at a higher rate for Michigan than for OSU.
Another thing about playing late in the year is that a lot of the big upsets in the series are far less shocking in retrospect than they were at the time.  Examples:
  • 2004:  Coming into the game tOSU looked mediocre (at best) while Michigan appeared to be MUCH better.  Going forward, however, the 2004 tOSU team was the core of a team that would go on a major run from 2005-2007.  
  • 2001:  Ohio State was somewhat mediocre in 2001 but that team formed the core of Ohio State's 2002 NC team.  
  • 1969:  Ohio State came in #1 and defending NC while Michigan had two losses.  However, that 1969 Michigan team was also the core of a team that lost only one game per year in both 1970 and 1971.  

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