Iowa, 4-2:
The Hawkeyes shouldn't have a problem but keep an eye on this Saturday's game against Purdue. The Boilermakers looked dead in the water then they went to College Park and annihilated the Terps. Has Purdue improved that much or has Maryland regressed that much or was that just one of those things that happens from time-to-time? The Hawkeyes host Illinois later so if they beat Purdue they will make it but the Illinois game is the only real "gimmie" left on their schedule so if Iowa loses to Purdue things get questionable.
Purdue, 2-4:
Purdue's bowl chances look a whole lot better this week than they did last week for two reasons. First, they got the win over Maryland. Second, and more importantly, they looked like a pretty good football team in the process which is something they hadn't really done prior to that this year. Unless they pull a major upset and win in either Kinnick or Camp Randall they are going to have to be a perfect 4-0 in their other remaining games (vIL, vUNL, @NU, vIU). Not impossible, but not easy.
FYI the game was at Purdue. Maryland was the road team.
As for the game, I wouldn't actually take "annihilated" the Terps away from it as someone who watched nearly every snap.
Maryland got the ball first. They went 25 yards in 2 plays to midfield. They (2nd and 6) then threw a 50-yard TD pass to go up 6-0... But wait... Called back on a holding penalty. Now they're behind the sticks with 2nd and 17, can't move the ball, and have to punt.
It was a poor punt, Purdue got great field position, and scored 6 plays later. Got a 3-and-out, get the ball back, score again, and now they're up 13-0.
At this point Maryland has a decent little drive, but stalls after 34 yards. Purdue goes 3-and-out. Maryland has another nice little drive (10 plays, 48 yards), and is faced with 4th-and-3 at the Purdue 21. Instead of kicking the FG, they already feel like they're in catch-up mode PLUS had moved the ball well that drive,
but fail to get the 4th down conversion. Purdue again goes 3-and-out and Maryland gets beautiful field position.
3 plays later (we're still early in the 2nd qtr) scores, on runs of 18 yards and then 21 for the TD, and it's 13-7 and we've got ourselves a ball game. (Although it could be 13-10 if MD had gone for the FG.)
Purdue answers 6 plays later with a bomb for a TD to go up 20-7. Maryland goes 70 yards in 4 plays the next drive to draw back within 20-14. Purdue marches right down the field, 65 yards in 11 plays, but stalls out and kicks a FG to go up 23-14.
Right about this time, I was on the SOC thread talking about how this was clearly going to be a shootout. Short drive from MD, followed by a 3-and-out from Purdue, and Maryland has the ball deep in their own territory with 46 seconds left looking to put points on the board, and every Purdue fan in the world--knowing our sieve of a defense--is scouring the internet trying to research every possible god to pray to that might stop MD. Well, apparently it worked, because Maryland throws a pick-6, Purdue goes up 30-14,
and THAT right there was what blew the game open. In the 3rd qtr Purdue had a missed FG followed by MD 3-and-out, a made FG followed by ending a promising MD drive with a pick in Purdue territory, a 75 yard drive to get into the 4th quarter resulting in a touchdown, and suddenly Maryland was down 40-14 with 13:05 to play. At that point Maryland is in desperation mode and goes 1-3 on 4th down conversions, turning the ball over on downs 2 more times.
It's easy to look at the box score and say Purdue annihilated Maryland. But absent that pick-6, the expectation is that with only 46 seconds left, Purdue goes into the half up only 23-14, and not necessarily firmly in control of momentum. The pick-6 basically sealed the game, and put Maryland firmly into "catch up" mode instead of being within their normal gameplan. And if that first Maryland TD hadn't been called back for a hold, it might have been Purdue in catch-up mode most of that first half. It's demoralizing to kick off and 3 plays later be down 7-0, and I don't know how this young team would have responded. The final score was more of a blowout than the game itself indicated.
I think Purdue is quickly improving as a team, and as I said in the 2019 Purdue Season thread, I think against teams without a strong pass rush, we have enough talent in Plummer and our receivers to make a game of anything. Iowa--unlike PSU who killed us--doesn't have a great pass rush, and doesn't have a dominant high-scoring offense. So I think that'll be closer than the 18 point spread. Not predicting a win, but I think that's going to be closer than advertised.
