CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 11, 2019, 05:05:22 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-ranings-week-6/).
Votes through @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) , 16 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/yUfHfP8.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/2L3Okg4.png)
Graph of changes so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/iRJO5Fl.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/c8pg7nk.jpg)
Change so far this year, aka COTY prediction graph:
(https://i.imgur.com/5EzipgJ.jpg)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/58u6zSm.png)
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1. Wisc
I almost want to list OSU and Wisc tied at #1. Although I still think OSU will be favored when Wisc plays them later, you just can't ignore Wiscy's resume so far. 4 shutouts in 6 games. Big dominant wins against Mich and MSU.
2. OSU
3. PSU
4. Mich
5. Iowa
6. MSU
7. Minn
Impressive win over Nebby, but I am going to wait to see how they do against the big boys before I bump them higher. Unfortunately that will have to wait until November if they keep winning.
8. Indy
9. Pur
10. MD
11. Neb
12. NW
13. ILL
14. Rut
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1. Wisconsin: I keep flip flopping the top two, and so I do again. Wiscy demolished MSU and frankly looked much better than OSU did against them. The defense is lights out, Taylor is the best back in the country, and their QB was nearly perfect. We are in for a treat in a couple weeks.
2. Ohio State: A week off before they head to the mire that is Northwestern's defense.
3. Penn State: Not their prettiest effort but everyone will take a win at Kinnick no matter what it looks like.
4. Minnesota: What? Hey, they dominated a hapless Nebraska team, and it's tough to trust any of these other teams.
5. Michigan: Honestly, don't know what to make of them. Looked like they were sorting out their running game, and then the defense folded and the offense went back in the crapper.
6. Iowa: Making life difficult for the better teams.
7. Michigan State: Two blowout losses to the best teams in the conference. Let's see how they look against the not quite best teams.
8. Indiana: This team might be good, actually?
9. Northwestern: Really by default. Not good, but not totally bad.
10. Purdue: Nice win to get the season turned around.
11. Nebraska: Got run over.
12. Illinois: I mean, they scored some points against Michigan.
13. Maryland: This team makes no sense.
14. Rutgers: Unimaginably bad.
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1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Michigan State
8. Northwestern
9. Nebraska
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Minnesota
8. Northwestern
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Nebraska
13. Maryland
14.
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Minnesota
8. Northwestern
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Nebraska
13. Maryland
14.
you have this wrong if the Gophers beat the team then they are the bottom of the league Purdue and Illinois and Nebraska all just above Rutgers. you got Maryland and Indiana too low
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Purdue just put 40 on Maryland with a backup QB. Maryland is where they belong right now.
I probably do have Indiana low, but I think if they played Purdue tomorrow, Purdue would win.
I know I'm a broken record, but I really wish #14 would just withdraw. The experiment failed.
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1. Ohio State - Still the best in the league
2. Wisconsin - Still clearly 2nd best.
3. Penn State - I'm still skeptical, but they did win in Iowa City.
4. Minnesota - Now they're dominating bad teams. Can they beat a top 25 team?
5. Michigan - Aggravatingly inconsistent, but maybe they'll figure out soon....
6. Iowa - Their offensive struggles just don't make sense.
7. Michigan State - Can they beat any top 25 level teams? It doesn't look like it.
8. Indiana - Should finally be able to get to 6 wins this year.... Maybe more?....
9. Purdue - Didn't see the game, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt this week with a convincing win.
10. Nebraska - They're better than the rest, but I don't know what to think of this team.
11. Northwestern - If they can be competitive the next two weeks, they might be able to win out and get to 6-6 for a bowl game, but I'm skeptical.
12. Illinois - They looked really bad in the first half, but I'll give them some credit for almost coming back while Michigan tried to choke in the 3rd quarter.
13. Maryland - Fully vindicated for ranking them low before the season. Now I'm just curious how long it takes Maryland to realize what a terrible hire this was.
14. Rutgers - Obviously. Apparently they're in contention for the worst BigTen team ever by point differential with the Northwestern teams of the 70s/80s.
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1 Buckeyes
2 Badgers
3 Nittany Lions
4 Golden Gophers
5 Spartans
6 Wolverines
7 Hawkeyes
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8 Boilermakers
9 Hoosiers
10 Cornhuskers
11 Wildcats
12 Fighting Illini
13 Terapins
14 Scarlet(te) Knights
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1. Wisconsin Record: 6-0 AP Rank Win: 1 Shutout: 4 Scoring: 255 - 29
2. Penn State Record: 6-0 AP Rank Win: 1 Shutout: 1 Scoring: 252 - 49
3. Ohio State Record: 6-0 AP Rank Win: 1 Shutout: 1 Scoring: 296 - 53
4. Minnesota Record: 6-0 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 213 - 144
5. Michigan Record: 5-1 AP Rank Win: 1 Shutout: 1 Scoring: 182 - 105
6. Iowa Record: 4-2 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 1 Scoring: 149 - 61
7. Indiana Record: 4-2 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 2 Scoring: 200 - 118
8. MSU Record: 4-3 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 167 - 116
9. Nebraska Record: 4-3 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 203 - 206
10. NW Record: 1-4 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 72 - 99
11. Illinois Record: 2-4 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 184 - 184
12. Purdue Record: 2-4 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 164 - 189
13. Maryland Record: 3-3 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 1 Scoring: 159 - 126
14. Rutgers Record: 1-5 AP Rank Win: 0 Shutout: 0 Scoring: 71 - 216
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I don't understand where you are getting your ap rank win figure.
If it is based on when played then tOSU should have one for MSU.
If it is based on current rankings then tOSU should have one for Cincy.
Also, shouldn't Michigan have one for Iowa?
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1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Michigan State
8. Northwestern
9. Indiana
10. Nebraska
11. Maryland
12. Purdue
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
Minnesota is gaining momentum.
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14. Rutgers - Obviously. Apparently they're in contention for the worst BigTen team ever by point differential with the Northwestern teams of the 70s/80s.
You got me curious how bad some of those NW teams were. I am guessing the worst team was one of the teams from 79-82 that helped set the NCAA record for 34 straight losses.
Denny Green may have been coach of the year in 1982, but Denny Green's 0-11 first year at NW in 81 was pretty awful
Indy L 21-20
Arkansas L 38-7
Utah L 42-0
Iowa L 64-0
Minn L 25-23
Purdue L 35-0
Mich L 38-0
Wisc L 52-0
MSU L 61-14
OSU L 70-6
ILL L 49-12
So at least there was a couple close losses in there to Indy and Minn, but the rest of the schedule included being shut out 5 times and giving up more than 34 points in 9 games out of 11.
No wonder Denny Green won coach of year in 82. At that point it was considered a miracle to win any games. I also give NW credit in 81 for playing 9 conference games plus Arkansas & Utah.
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I just checked again and on the September 29th AP Ranking, MSU was not ranked. Sorry about missing Michigan. Corrected listing.
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The AP referred to MSU as #25 when Ohio State played them.
Honestly, I think ranking NOW is more important because, IMHO beating an unranked team that later became ranked is a lot more impressive to me than beating a ranked team that subsequently drops out.
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. . . Honestly, I think ranking NOW is more important because, IMHO beating an unranked team that later became ranked is a lot more impressive to me than beating a ranked team that subsequently drops out.
Yep. Beating preseason #1 on the first weekend of the season doesn't prove much when that team finishes 5-7.
OTOH, there is another side to the story. I'll quote from BCS computer "pollster" Richard Billingsley:
Accumulating Points- My system is the only one I am aware of that uses an “accumulating” value system. It was designed this way to emphasize a team’s most recent game as the AP and Coaches do. As a result, a team only gets credit for playing an opponent ONE TIME. Whatever happens to that opponent from that point forward is “water under the bridge.” Some would argue that not going back and “re-calculating” the opponent strength as the season progresses, and therefore not allowing for a more up to date opponent rank, is a mistake. I disagree. In order to balance out this potential issue a lower rate of value is given to teams as opponents in September. To give you an example, playing a #1 team as an opponent in September may be worth 7 points, whereas playing a #1 team in November may be worth 17 points. Using my method also prevents teams from being penalized later in the season if an opponent loses a star player to injury and falters greatly after being highly ranked. The greatest example I could ever use to defend this philosophy came in 2007 in a scenario involving Oregon. After beating #4 USC and #5 Arizona State on successive weekends the Ducks rose to #3 in the Billingsley Report (#3 AP, #3 Coaches), and USC, even in a loss received a high value for playing Oregon. But, after losing QB Dennis Dixon to injury, Oregon fell to Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State. Every time Oregon lost, USC suffered in some computer rankings because Oregon’s won loss record became mediocre. I don’t agree with that methodology. My contention is that the Trojans played an Oregon team that was playing some of the best football in the nation during those games and was truly a #3 team. Southern Cal should not have to suffer because of an injury that happened to Oregon after the fact. In my rankings it did not matter. USC went on to finish #3 in the Billingsley Report, #3 in the AP, and #3 in the Coaches Poll. Each week a team accumulates or “earns points” based on the current week’s opponent and nothing else. If a team has a bye week, their rating does not change, with two exceptions. A special rule is in place (in the head to head section) that allows an undefeated team to ALWAYS be ranked ahead of every opponent they have beaten, and allows any team experiencing a bye week to remain ahead of a team they had just beaten before their bye week. https://enc.cfrc.com/archives/ISO_08.htm (https://enc.cfrc.com/archives/ISO_08.htm)
But capturing that sort of thing takes more information than most AP Poll/Coaches Poll voters take into consideration.
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Okay I see that. Please do me a favor and do a search on AP ranking for Sep 29th which is when the polls came out for the first week of Oct. Not sure why I keep see a listing without MSU. Not that it's a big deal just not sure why there's a difference.
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Okay I see that. Please do me a favor and do a search on AP ranking for Sep 29th which is when the polls came out for the first week of Oct. Not sure why I keep see a listing without MSU. Not that it's a big deal just not sure why there's a difference.
I looked it up, on the attached USA Today picture MSU is not listed as a ranked team.
If you look at the "Others Receiving Votes" group, MSU is first with 147 points. Look closer though and #25 aTm also has 147 points so aTm and MSU are tied for 25th place.
So tOSU has one AP ranked win if measured when played (#25 MSU on 10/5) and one if measured now (#21 Cincy).
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Here is the attachment
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1. Ohio State - Idle
2. Wisconsin - Making a strong case to be #1
3. Michigan - Defense looks good, offense is improving. Too many people overreacted to the Wisconsin game.
4. Penn State - Beat Iowa at night. I am really shocked they were able to overcome that atmosphere. I'm still not convinced they are a top 10 team, however.
5. Minnesota - This team is starting to believe. You can actually see their confidence now. I don't think they are a top 10 team just yet, but their improvement from game to game is probably the best in the B1G right now.
6. Michigan State - For as easy as the Minnesota and Penn State schedules have been, MSU has had a brutal stretch. Ohio State and Iowa back to back will make anyone look bad.
7. Iowa - I don't know where to put this team at the moment. The defense looks very good, the offense doesn't look like they have improved over last year's version.
8. Indiana - This team is good enough to win their next 3 games. They could be 7-2 when they visit Penn State in 4 weeks. With the rise of Minnesota and Indiana, Penn State's upcoming schedule looks MUCH more difficult than it did earlier in the season.
9. Nebraska - A combination of a tough schedule, injuries, and a depleted roster are really starting to effect this team. They have a bye week, and they need it. Indiana is their next opponent, and could very well hand Nebraska another loss.
10. Purdue - I'm still impressed with all of the young talent they have. When healthy, they may have the best wide receivers in the B1G. If they finish strong, despite all of the injuries, they could make some noise next season.
11. Northwestern - Idle, but the competitive game against Nebraska loses some luster.
12. Illinois - The rare case of a team moving UP even though they lost. That stretch of 25 unanswered points against Michigan was REALLY impressive.
13. Maryland - This is the worst coached team in the B1G. They have REALLY good players on both sides of the ball, and yet the coaching is so bad...
14. Rutgers - I'm actually feeling pity for them right now.
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1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently.
2) Wisconsin: damn, it feels good to be a Badger.
3) Penn State: tough win on the road against a good team.
4) Michigan: honestly, that line shouldn't make Big Blue too happy.
5) Iowa: tough two losses, but still better than everyone else.
6) Michigan State: better or worse than Minnesota? Hard to say--have lost badly to two teams that are way better than anyone Minnesota has played.
7) Minnesota: two solid wins in a row, still unbeaten, and still untested.
8) Nebraska: so maybe this isn't their bounce-back year?
9) Northwestern: feels about right based on the last two weeks.
10) Indiana: playing Rutgers cures what ails you. Could still creep up a bit.
11) Purdue: Maryland must really suck. What does that say about Syracuse?
12) Maryland: still better than Rutgers.
13) Illinois: one decent rally in a loss isn't enough.
14) Rutgers: still gross.
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- OHIO STATE (1) - bye week
- WISCONSIN (2) - holy cow, that defense
- PENN STATE (3) - most impressive regular season win of the Franklin era?
- MICHIGAN (4) - a road night game in Happy Valley being a must win is not a fun situation to be in
- IOWA (5) - defense has surrendered 27 total points over the past 2 games and Iowa lost both, hits too close to home to me
- MINNESOTA (7) - and yet the computers are split on whether they are better than an undefeated Appalachian State
- MICHIGAN STATE (6) - the offensive coaches take the blame, but the players should be getting a lot more of it
- INDIANA (8) - Penix keeps rolling, but what can we ever learn against Rutgers?
- PURDUE (12) - #9 through #12 is a crapshoot, so I'll just go by how they looked this week
- NORTHWESTERN (11) - bye week
- NEBRASKA (10) - I didn't expect the massive step forward this season that some did, but I didn't think they'd be this bad
- MARYLAND (9) - getting curb stomped by Purdue's second team < getting curb stomped by your CFB bound Gophers
- ILLINOIS (13) - Brandon Peters probably never regains his job
- RUTGERS (14)
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SP+
1. OSU (1): Moved ahead of Alabama
2. Wisconsin (4)
3. PSU (6)
4. Michigan (13)
5. Minnesota (17)
6. Iowa (19)
7. Indiana (25)
8. Michigan St. (27)
9. Maryland (43)
10. Nebraska (44)
11. Purdue (51)
12. Northwestern (62)
13. Illinois (74)
14. Rutgers (97)
8 in the top 27. 3 in the top 6. Not bad.
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1. Ohio State - Bye week
2. Wisconsin - Making a case for the top spot
3. Penn State - A win in Iowa City is never a bad thing
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4. Michigan - Did they take their foot off the gas or is this something worse?
5. Minnesota - Time to start giving the Gophers some love
6. Iowa - Lost 2 games and only gave up 27 points total between the 2 of them.
7. Michigan State - Got annihilated by Wis. Is the offense that bad or were they beat up after the previous week?
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8. Indiana - When your having issues, play Rutgers.
9. Nebraska - Losing the Minn is not terrible, but getting blown off the field is another matter
10. Purdue - Is Maryland the new Rutgers?
11. Northwestern - Bye week
12. Maryland - What happened to that unstoppable offense?
13. Illinois - The 2nd half performance maybe should move them higher on this list
14. Rutgers - Still wanting to give this football thing a shot, although not sure why
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1. OSU
2. Wisconsin
3. PSU
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4. Michigan
5. MSU
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Nebraska
9. Northwestern
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Purdue
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13. Illinois
14. Rutger
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1) Ohio State (1)
2) Wisconsin (2)
3) Penn State (3)
4) Michigan (5)
5) Michigan State (4)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Minnesota (7)
8) Indiana (10)
9) Purdue (12)
10) Nebraska (9)
11) Maryland (8)
12) Northwestern (11)
13) Illinois (13)
14) Rutgers (14)
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1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Penn State
4) Michigan
5) Iowa
6) Minnesota
7) Michigan State
8) Indiana
9) Purdue
10) Northwestern
11) Nebraska
12) Maryland
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
Tempted to move my Gophers up....but I'd need to see them move the ball against a formidable defense before I completely buy in. The one good sign that I've noticed over the last couple weeks is that....our passing attack had Illinois and Nebraska taking notice after Purdue. 21/22 for about 400 yards and four touchdowns will do that. With the emphasis on slowing down the passing game....the Gophers have had two straight games with over 300 yards rushing.
Having Rodney Smith And Shannon Brooks both back and healthy has been great. And the defense has gelled as well. Ten points allowed in the past two games.
But like I said.....both Iowa and Michigan have played and beaten better teams than the Gophers have played thus far. And their defenses are tested....and are truly top notch.
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - It is very close with #2.
- Wisconsin - 2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - Impressive!
- Penn State - 3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - Road wins in Kinnick are tough!
- Michigan - 4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - It is still unclear to me exactly what happened in the ~20 minutes that Illinois dominated that game but give Michigan credit for dominating the other 40.
- Iowa - 5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - If only they had just a little bit of offense.
- Minnesota - 9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated and they finally blew somebody out and got a decent win in the process.
- Michigan State - 6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - Two blowout losses to the B1G's best teams.
- Northwestern - 7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - off.
- Purdue - 12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - They really needed that.
- Indiana - 11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - Isn't playing Rutgers fun?
- Nebraska - 8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - Ouch!
- Maryland - 10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - Got flattened.
- Illinois - 13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - For 20 minutes they completely dominated and outscored Michigan 25-0. Those other 40 minutes they looked like Illinois.
- Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.
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I'll do the compilation tomorrow but just a few notes for now:
Everyone except @Badger1969 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=67) agrees that tOSU and UW are our two best teams, he has PSU second and tOSU third.
Minnesota is an interesting case. It seems that most of us either buy in completely or not at all. Here are their votes so far:
- Fourth, 5 votes
- Fifth, 2 votes
- Sixth, 4 votes
- Seventh, 5 votes
I'm assuming the five voting them 4th place are unconcerned by their SoS while the five voting them seventh are seriously concerned with that.
All of us except @Badger1969 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=67) (again) agree on the top-half and bottom-half of the conference. The rest of us all have tOSU, UW, PSU, M, MSU, IA, and MN in the top-half and the other seven (UNL, MD, IU, NU, PU, IL, RU) in the bottom half. He has Indiana in the top half and MSU in the bottom half.
Looking at the standard deviations, our most glaring lack of consensus is wrt the following teams:
- Northwestern: Std Deviation of 1.42
- Purdue: 1.29
- Minnesota: 1.26
- Nebraska: 1.18
- Indiana: 1.13
- Maryland: 1.06
The rest are all <0.90.
Everybody agrees that Rutgers is the worst team in the conference.
Based on the votes, if we made tiers they would be:
- tOSU, UW
- PSU
- M
- MN, IA, MSU
- blank
- IU, NU, PU, UNL
- UMD, ILL
- RU
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Results posted, votes through @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) , 16 voters.
Changes this week:
- Ohio State spent the last couple of weeks as a pretty much consensus #1 but now they are splitting the #1 votes with Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are winning that split 11-5 but there IS a split where the last few weeks there wasn't.
- Minnesota is WAY up with their big win over Nebraska. The votes for the Gophers (see above) are split somewhat because their schedule is still shaky but they now have some votes as high as #4.
- Michigan State is down significantly after their loss to UW. That might be an overreaction, maybe UW is just THAT good?
- Indiana and Northwestern were up not so much because of anything they did as because Nebraska and Maryland were WAY down.
- Purdue is WAY up from being only barely ahead of Illinois for second-to-last to now being basically in a three-way tie with Northwestern and Nebraska for 9/10/11.
This week's match-ups do not offer a lot in terms of games between closely ranked teams:
- #1 Ohio State at #9 Northwestern
- #2 Wisconsin at #13 Illinois
- #3 Penn State vs #4 Michigan
- #5 Minnesota at #14 Rutgers
- #6 Iowa vs #11 Purdue
- #7 Michigan State is off
- #8 Indiana at #12 Maryland
- #10 Nebraska is off
Penn State Michigan is obviously huge but the rest are all separated by at least four spots so, in theory, those shouldn't be very competitive.
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Bowl positioning:
Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin each have six wins so they have clinched bowl eligibility.
Michigan has five wins so they only need one more. That shouldn't be a problem but it could take a few weeks. They will be underdogs at Penn State this weekend and probably again next weekend at home against Notre Dame. After that they finish up with @UMD, vMSU, @IU, and vtOSU.
Iowa, 4-2:
The Hawkeyes shouldn't have a problem but keep an eye on this Saturday's game against Purdue. The Boilermakers looked dead in the water then they went to College Park and annihilated the Terps. Has Purdue improved that much or has Maryland regressed that much or was that just one of those things that happens from time-to-time? The Hawkeyes host Illinois later so if they beat Purdue they will make it but the Illinois game is the only real "gimmie" left on their schedule so if Iowa loses to Purdue things get questionable.
Indiana, 4-2:
The Hoosiers' next three are key. They travel to Maryland and Nebraska then host Northwestern. They absolutely have to win one of them and two would be REALLY helpful because after that they finish up with @PSU, vMich, @PU.
Michigan State, 4-3:
The Spartans should make it. They only need two more wins and they host Illinois and Maryland along with visiting Rutgers.
Nebraska, 4-3:
As bad as the Cornhuskers have looked of late, I'm honestly shocked that they already have four wins. Part of that is already playing Illinois (won in Champaign by 4) and Northwestern (won at home by 3). They should beat Maryland but that game is in College Park. At this point it is hard to envision them beating Wisconsin or Iowa so they need two wins out of vIU, @PU, @UMD. It is probably more likely than not at this point but hardly a given.
Maryland, 3-3:
Remember a few weeks ago when Maryland was third in our Power Rankings and looked like a potential contender in the B1G-E? The way Maryland looked against Penn State and Purdue that might as well have been four decades ago rather than four weeks. What happened? They need to get it figured out quickly because if they lose to Indiana this weekend they can pretty much kiss their bowl aspirations goodbye.
Purdue, 2-4:
Purdue's bowl chances look a whole lot better this week than they did last week for two reasons. First, they got the win over Maryland. Second, and more importantly, they looked like a pretty good football team in the process which is something they hadn't really done prior to that this year. Unless they pull a major upset and win in either Kinnick or Camp Randall they are going to have to be a perfect 4-0 in their other remaining games (vIL, vUNL, @NU, vIU). Not impossible, but not easy.
Illinois, 2-4:
The Illini have almost zero chance of going 4-2 against UW, @PU, RU, @MSU, @IA, and vNU so this is not going to be their year.
Northwestern, 1-4:
We are all somewhat accustomed to slow starting Northwestern teams rounding into form but this time I think that they have dug themselves too deep of a hole. They need to go 5-2 in their remaining games (vtOSU, vIA, @IU, vPU, vUMASS, vMN, @IL) and I just don't see it.
Rutgers, 1-5:
The Scarlet Knights still have Liberty on the schedule so they have a good chance to get a second win. After that it gets tougher. I suppose they could knock off the Illini in Champaign and maybe Michigan State's offense will gift them four TD's in Picastaway and Minnesota will miss the flight and . . . Not happening.
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Iowa, 4-2:
The Hawkeyes shouldn't have a problem but keep an eye on this Saturday's game against Purdue. The Boilermakers looked dead in the water then they went to College Park and annihilated the Terps. Has Purdue improved that much or has Maryland regressed that much or was that just one of those things that happens from time-to-time? The Hawkeyes host Illinois later so if they beat Purdue they will make it but the Illinois game is the only real "gimmie" left on their schedule so if Iowa loses to Purdue things get questionable.
Purdue, 2-4:
Purdue's bowl chances look a whole lot better this week than they did last week for two reasons. First, they got the win over Maryland. Second, and more importantly, they looked like a pretty good football team in the process which is something they hadn't really done prior to that this year. Unless they pull a major upset and win in either Kinnick or Camp Randall they are going to have to be a perfect 4-0 in their other remaining games (vIL, vUNL, @NU, vIU). Not impossible, but not easy.
FYI the game was at Purdue. Maryland was the road team.
As for the game, I wouldn't actually take "annihilated" the Terps away from it as someone who watched nearly every snap.
Maryland got the ball first. They went 25 yards in 2 plays to midfield. They (2nd and 6) then threw a 50-yard TD pass to go up 6-0... But wait... Called back on a holding penalty. Now they're behind the sticks with 2nd and 17, can't move the ball, and have to punt.
It was a poor punt, Purdue got great field position, and scored 6 plays later. Got a 3-and-out, get the ball back, score again, and now they're up 13-0.
At this point Maryland has a decent little drive, but stalls after 34 yards. Purdue goes 3-and-out. Maryland has another nice little drive (10 plays, 48 yards), and is faced with 4th-and-3 at the Purdue 21. Instead of kicking the FG, they already feel like they're in catch-up mode PLUS had moved the ball well that drive, but fail to get the 4th down conversion. Purdue again goes 3-and-out and Maryland gets beautiful field position.
3 plays later (we're still early in the 2nd qtr) scores, on runs of 18 yards and then 21 for the TD, and it's 13-7 and we've got ourselves a ball game. (Although it could be 13-10 if MD had gone for the FG.)
Purdue answers 6 plays later with a bomb for a TD to go up 20-7. Maryland goes 70 yards in 4 plays the next drive to draw back within 20-14. Purdue marches right down the field, 65 yards in 11 plays, but stalls out and kicks a FG to go up 23-14. Right about this time, I was on the SOC thread talking about how this was clearly going to be a shootout.
Short drive from MD, followed by a 3-and-out from Purdue, and Maryland has the ball deep in their own territory with 46 seconds left looking to put points on the board, and every Purdue fan in the world--knowing our sieve of a defense--is scouring the internet trying to research every possible god to pray to that might stop MD. Well, apparently it worked, because Maryland throws a pick-6, Purdue goes up 30-14, and THAT right there was what blew the game open.
In the 3rd qtr Purdue had a missed FG followed by MD 3-and-out, a made FG followed by ending a promising MD drive with a pick in Purdue territory, a 75 yard drive to get into the 4th quarter resulting in a touchdown, and suddenly Maryland was down 40-14 with 13:05 to play. At that point Maryland is in desperation mode and goes 1-3 on 4th down conversions, turning the ball over on downs 2 more times.
It's easy to look at the box score and say Purdue annihilated Maryland. But absent that pick-6, the expectation is that with only 46 seconds left, Purdue goes into the half up only 23-14, and not necessarily firmly in control of momentum. The pick-6 basically sealed the game, and put Maryland firmly into "catch up" mode instead of being within their normal gameplan. And if that first Maryland TD hadn't been called back for a hold, it might have been Purdue in catch-up mode most of that first half. It's demoralizing to kick off and 3 plays later be down 7-0, and I don't know how this young team would have responded. The final score was more of a blowout than the game itself indicated.
I think Purdue is quickly improving as a team, and as I said in the 2019 Purdue Season thread, I think against teams without a strong pass rush, we have enough talent in Plummer and our receivers to make a game of anything. Iowa--unlike PSU who killed us--doesn't have a great pass rush, and doesn't have a dominant high-scoring offense. So I think that'll be closer than the 18 point spread. Not predicting a win, but I think that's going to be closer than advertised.
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Thank you @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) for the clarification. I have the PU/UMD game as being in West Lafayette on the Schedule/Performance chart but for some reason when I typed that I was thinking that it was in Maryland, my mistake. I honestly didn't watch the game so I was not aware that it was closer than that gaudy score made it appear.
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Updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 101 rankings (last week in parenthesis)
- OHIO STATE (1)
- Alabama (2)
- WISCONSIN (5)
- LSU (4)
- Clemson (3)
- PENN STATE (7)
- Oklahoma (9)
- Auburn (6)
- Oregon (11)
- Florida (10)
- Notre Dame (12)
- Boise State (21)
- Georgia (8)
- Baylor (14)
- Texas (13)
- Cincinnati (20)
- Missouri (18)
- MICHIGAN (16)
- Washington (23)
- Utah (-)
- SMU (17)
- Iowa State (-)
- MINNESOTA (-)
- IOWA (15)
- Appalachian State (-)
- 27. Michigan State (19)
- 54. Indiana (60)
- 65. Nebraska (55)
- 71. Maryland (52)
- 73. Purdue (91)
- 78. Northwestern (80)
- 107. Illinois (108)
- 123. Rutgers (121)
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So based on our own power rankings the bowl projections would work out something like this IF there are no upsets.
CFP bowl, OSU 13-0
ROSE, WISC 11-2
ORANGE, PSU 11-1
CITRUS, NO BIG TEN TEAM SINCE PSU IS IN THE ORANGE
OUTBACK, MICH 8-4
HOLIDAY, MINN 10-2
GATOR, IOWA 8-4
PINNSTRIPE, MSU 7-5
SANTA CLARA, INDY 8-4
DETROIT, NEB 7-5
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Thank you @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) for the clarification. I have the PU/UMD game as being in West Lafayette on the Schedule/Performance chart but for some reason when I typed that I was thinking that it was in Maryland, my mistake. I honestly didn't watch the game so I was not aware that it was closer than that gaudy score made it appear.
No worries. Pretty sure nobody that wasn't either a Maryland or Purdue fan watched this one. I'll bet even Big Ten fans outside of those fan bases were watching OU/Texas at the time.
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Bowl positioning:
Illinois, 2-4:
The Illini have almost zero chance of going 4-2 against UW, @PU, RU, @MSU, @IA, and vNU so this is not going to be their year.
Well that looks a little less daunting, all of a sudden.
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13. Maryland - Fully vindicated for ranking them low before the season. Now I'm just curious how long it takes Maryland to realize what a terrible hire this was.
Okay. Couple things.
-First year coaching staff.
-OL is not healthy, neither is the starting QB (although I think Piggy could be used better)
-As for the "hire", tell me what other coach was going to come into this shit show? A player died during the spring, a coach who isn't allowed to participate gets blamed for it, and the media blows it up because the reporter has beef with Maryland to begin with. Then, a report comes out saying that the student did not drink any of his water, did not eat any of his meals, and was on medication that overheats them.
"Atypical signs of heat stroke".
Locksley and McNair's father, are friends.
Any other hire world surely get more scrutiny, a definite legal battle that could snowball into a death penalty for the school.
Oh, and the higher ups wouldn't back you up regardless of the evidence.
So, who do we hire?