2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[MaximumSam]

Turned out it did

It did! K. Wesson had two fouls in the first three minutes and they struggled in the first half. But EJ Liddell and foul trouble for Illinois' bigs helped them out in the second half

[MichiFan87]

Ugly first half and great second half for Michigan tonight. Nebraska disclaimers aside, hopefully that brings their confidence back.

I'll be at the Maryland game on Sunday and am looking forward to it....

[medinabuckeye1]

You always want that. 

I'll wait until after tonight's games to tackle that.  Right now both teams still have two games left so there are a lot of possibilities.  After tonight it will be simpler. 

Right now it appears highly unlikely because tOSU is likely to end up at the #7 seed while Michigan is likely to end up in the 8/9 game so the only way they could play each other in the tournament would be if the both made it to the CG. 

I thought it would be simpler after tonight's games and it is but there are still a LOT of possibilities.

If Ohio State wins they finish 12-8. That would be behind the top three and ahead of the bottom seven.

It would either be behind Illinois and ahead of Iowa (if IL beats IA) or tied with both (if IA beats IL).

It would be ahead of PSU if they lose in Evanston or tied with them if they win.

So with a win Ohio State would finish either:

• Alone in fifth place (IA and PSU lose)
• Tied for 5th/6th with PSU (IA loses, PSU wins)
• Tied with IL and IA for 4th/5th/6th (IA wins, PSU loses)
• Tied with IL, IA, and PSU for 4th/5th/6th/7th (IA and PSU both win)

Seeds:

• #5, obviously.
• I think #6 but I'm not positive on that. The relevant tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc. That probably favors PSU and their 1-0 record against UMD but tOSU would be 1-0 against both MSU and IL.
• #5 seed because IA would be 3-0 H2H2H while tOSU would be 1-1 and IL would be 0-3.
• I think #5 but I'm not positive on that. The relevant tiebreaker is H2H2H2H. I think that would go 4-IA, 5-tOSU, 6-PSU, 7-IL.

If Ohio State loses they finish 11-9. That would be behind the top four and ahead of the bottom five. I'm not sure, but I think they would get the #7 seed.

[bayareabadger]

I'm late on this, but I appreciate y'all indulging me about 20 wins.

At some point in college, I decided 20 wins was a benchmark of sorts for UW. I figured in the Big 10 with the schedules teams play, that was a good solid number to comfortably make the dance. 

UW got to 20 yesterday. This year it was a little ragged, but since I got to school, UW has only finished below 20 twice. Sometimes it's taken a while, all the way to the second-to-last game of the season. Once it took all of 21 games. That's pretty cool.

This year's was special in its own way. This team is kinda inconsistent at just about every spot, and the only sorta consistent played is a bit of a liability on defense. This is honestly one of the most satisfying UW team's I've watched. I honestly think they could go 0-3 the rest of the way and the overall season would be a success. Granted, I'd prefer a conference title and/or NCAA  win or two. Anyway, I thought this team would scrape in, maybe get to 19 before Indy. Getting to 20 before Bloomington, it's a small gift, as is just about every 20-win season for me when it comes along. 

[847badgerfan]

21 and a championship banner might keep Gard safe for a year.

[NickSmith4Three]

Hard to beat a good team on the road with almost a 3:1 free throw disparity.  That said, Ayo was the only Illini that really had anything going last night.  OSU was able to limit him in the second half and no one else stepped up.  Feliz was pretty bad and boy I wish I knew what happened to Trent Frazier of years past.

[medinabuckeye1]

What series of outcomes down the stretch would lead to an early OSU-Michigan match up in the Big Ten Tourney?

The Buckeyes are currently 11-8 and tied for 5th/6th/7th with PSU and IA.  Those three teams are one game behind 4th place Illinois and one game ahead of M and RU which are tied for 8th/9th. 

Here are all of the possibilities for Ohio State if the Buckeyes win:

• Ohio State wins, Iowa (@IL) and PSU (@NU) lose, #5 seed.   
• Ohio State wins, Iowa (@IL) loses and PSU (@NU) wins, #5 of #6 seed depending on what happens with UMD and UW. 
• Ohio State wins, Iowa (@IL) wins and PSU (@NU) loses #5 seed. 
• Ohio State wins, Iowa (@IL) and PSU (@NU) also win #5 seed. 

What happens in each scenario:
#1 tOSU wins, IA and PSU lose:
Ohio State finishes alone in fifth place one game behind 4th place IL and one game ahead of 6th/7th place IA and PSU.  Ohio State gets the #5 seed in the BTT and plays the #12 MN vs #13 (NU or UNL) winner at 2:30pm on Thursday, March 12 in Indy. 

#2 tOSU wins, IA loses, PSU wins:
Ohio State finishes tied with PSU for 5th/6th one game behind 4th place IL and one game ahead of 7th place IA.  The first tiebreaker is H2H but tOSU and PSU split the season series so we move to record against the best team(s).  That could be:

• Maryland only:  PSU wins because they went 1-0 against UMD while tOSU was 1-1.  Thus PSU gets the #5 seed and tOSU gets the #6 seed.  They would play the #11/14 winner at 9pm on Thursday, March 12 in Indy. 
• Wisconsin only:  That is tied because tOSU was 0-2 against the Badgers while PSU was 0-1.  Thus we would move to record against the next best teams which would be UMD, MSU, and IL.  Ohio State would be 3-1.  PSU would be 2-2 so Ohio State would win thus getting the #5 seed and playing the MN/#13 winner on Thursday, March 12 at 230pm. 
• Maryland and Wisconsin:  PSU wins because they would be 1-1 (beat UMD, lost to UW) while tOSU would be 1-3 (split with UMD, swept by UW).  Thus tOSU would get the #6 seed and play the #11/14 winner at 9pm on Thursday, March 12 in Indy. 
• Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Illinois:  Ohio State would be 4-3 (split with UMD, swept by UW, beat MSU and IL once each).  PSU would be 2-3 (beat UMD, lost to UW, split with MSU, lost to IL).  Thus tOSU would get the #5 seed and play the MN/#13 winner at 230pm on Thursday, March 12 in Indy. 

#3 tOSU wins, Iowa wins, PSU loses:
Ohio State finishes tied with IA and IL for 4th/5th/6th.  The first tiebreaker is H2H2H.  Ohio State would be 1-1 (beat IL at home, lost to IA in Iowa City).  Iowa would be 3-0 (beat tOSU at home, swept IL).  Illinois would be 0-3 (lost in Columbus, swept by IA).  Thus, Ohio State would get the #5 seed and play the MN/#13 winner at 230pm on Thursday, March 12 in Indy. 

#4 Ohio State, Iowa, and PSU all win: 
Ohio State finishes tied with IL, IA, and PSU for 4th/5th/6th/7th.  The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

• 4-1 Iowa (Beat tOSU, swept IL, split with PSU), gets the #4 seed. 
• 2-2 tOSU (Beat IL in Columbus, lost to Iowa in Iowa City, split with PSU), gets the #5 seed and plays the MN/#13 winner at 230pm on Thursday, March 12 in Indy. 
• 2-3 PSU (Split with tOSU, split with IA, lost to IL), gets the #6 seed. 
• 1-3 IL (Lost to tOSU, swept by IA, beat PSU), gets the #7 seed. 

If Ohio State wins they get either the #5 or the #6 seed.  

[medinabuckeye1]

If the Buckeyes lose it is extremely complex.  There are 16 possibilities because four other teams are relevant (IA, PSU, M, RU).  The math is:

• Iowa can win or lose that is two possibilities.  
• Penn State can win or lose which is two possibilities multiplied by the two for Iowa makes 4.  
• Michigan can win or lose which is two possibilities multiplied by the four above makes 8.  
• Rutgers can win or lose which is two possibilities multiplied by the eight above makes 16.  

Short version (I'm not doing the long version):
Ohio State could either finish alone in 7th place (#7 seed obviously) or in a tie with Iowa (if they also lose) and/or PSU (if they also lose) and/or Michigan (if they win) and/or Rutgers (if they win).  In any tie the first tiebreaker is H2H . . . 2H.  Ohio State's H2H record against each of the four teams that they could end up tied with if they lose at MSU this weekend:

• 2-0 against Michigan
• 1-0 against Rutgers
• 1-1 against Penn State
• 0-1 against Iowa

I think that if the Buckeyes lose they almost certainly end up with the #7 seed because they would win a tie with M or RU or both and lose a tie with Iowa.  They would also lose a tie with PSU because the second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference and that would be MSU and possibly UMD and/or Wisconsin.  Ohio State would be 0-1 against MSU, 1-1 against UMD, and 0-2 against UW while PSU would be 1-1 against MSU, 1-0 against UMD, and 0-1 against UW.  Ohio State can't win that.  

The thing is that there might be some multi-team tie where the Buckeyes end up beating PSU but I'm just not going to run 16 different scenarios to figure that out.  

Now back to @Brutus Buckeye 's original question about tOSU facing M in the BTT.  I think it is pretty unlikely.  I *THINK* that Michigan has clinched no worse than the #9 seed because they swept RU, swept PU, and beat IU in their only meeting.  Thus, Michigan wins any tie with the teams behind them so they can do no worse than the #9 seed.  At the same time, they got swept by tOSU and lost their only meeting with PSU so it is pretty unlikely that they would win any tie involving the teams ahead of them so they might have already mathematically clinched a spot in the 8/9 game, I'm not sure.  


I am fairly certain that Michigan will be in the 8/9 game and that Ohio State will be either the #5 seed, the #6 seed, or the #7 seed:

• #5 would play 8/9 in the semi-final on Saturday if both got there.  
• #6 would play 8/9 in the Championship Game on Sunday if both got there.  
• #7 would play 8/9 in the Championship Game on Sunday if both got there.  

Ie, I think it is highly unlikely that Ohio State and Michigan will play in the BTT because I expect them to be on opposite sides of the bracket.  

[medinabuckeye1]

As you can see from the above, it is just WAY too complex for me to run every possible scenario.  Usually with just one game left for each team that isn't too difficult but this year with the teams so bunched up it creates way too many possible outcomes. 

What I will do instead is look at each team based on their projection and what happens if their last game goes the other way instead (Note that this assumes that the other six games all go as projected):

• 13-6 Michigan State is projected to beat tOSU at home to finish 14-6 and tied with UMD for the Championship.  If they lose instead they would drop into a three-way tie with IL and UW for 2nd/3rd/4th. 
• 13-6 Maryland is projected to beat Michigan at home to finish 14-6 and tied with MSU for the Championship.  If they lose instead they would drop into a three-way tie with IL and UW for 2nd/3rd/4th. 
• 13-6 Wisconsin is projected to lose at Indiana to finish 13-7 and tied with IL for 3rd/4th.  If they win instead they would move into a three-way tie with MSU and UMD for 1st/2nd/3rd. 
• 12-7 Illinois is projected to beat Iowa at home to finish 13-7 and tied with UW for 3rd/4th.  If they lose instead they would drop into a three-way tie with IA and PSU for 4th/5th/6th. 
• 11-8 Penn State is projected to win at Northwestern to finish 12-8 and alone in 5th place.  If they lose instead they would drop into a three-way tie with IA and tOSU for 5th/6th/7th. 
• 11-8 Iowa is projected to lose at Illinois to finish 11-9 and tied with tOSU for 6th/7th.  If they win instead they would finish in a three-way tie with IL and PSU for 4th/5th/6th. 
• 11-8 Ohio State is projected to lose at MSU to finish 11-9 and tied with IA for 6th/7th.  If they win instead they would finish tied with PSU for 5th/6th. 
• 10-9 Michigan is projected to lose at UMD to finish 10-10 and tied with RU, IU, and PU for 8th/9th/10th/11th.  If they win instead they would finish 11-9 and tied with IA and tOSU for 6th/7th/8th. 
• 10-9 Rutgers is projected to lose at PU to finish 10-10 and tied with M, IU, and PU for 8th/9th/10th/11th.  If they win instead they would finish 11-9 and tied with IA and tOSU for 6th/7th/8th. 
• 9-10 Indiana is projected to beat Wisconsin at home to finish 10-10 and tied with M, RU, and PU for 8th/9th/10th/11th.  If they lose instead they would finish 9-11 and alone in 11th place. 
• 9-10 Purdue is projected to beat Rutgers at home to finish 10-10 and tied with M, RU, and IU for 8th/9th/10th/11th.  If they lose instead they would finish 9-11 and alone in 11th place. 
• 7-12 Minnesota is projected to beat Nebraska at home to finish 8-12 and alone in 12th place where they would play 13th seeded Northwestern in the 12/13 game next Wednesday at 6pm in Indy.  If they lose instead they would finish 7-13.  That would still be alone in 12th place and most likely would get them a rematch with Nebraska next Wednesday at 6pm in Indy. 
• 2-17 Northwestern is projected to lose at home to Penn State to finish 2-18 and tied with UNL for 13th/14th.  If they win instead they would finish 3-17 and alone in 13th place.  They get the #13 seed either way unless they lose and Nebraska wins. 
• 2-17 Nebraska is projected to lose at Minnesota to finish 2-18 and tied with NU for 13th/14th.  If they win instead they would finish alone in 13th place and get another shot at Minnesota next Wednesday in Indy. 

[medinabuckeye1]

NCAA Tournament:

Lunardi's latest (updated today) has us getting 10 teams in with Indiana one of the last four in and Purdue now up to the fifth team out.  Here are the projected seeds for our 10 teams:

• n/a
• n/a
• Michigan State
• Wisconsin, Maryland
• Ohio State, Penn State
• Michigan, Iowa
• Illinois
• n/a
• n/a
• Rutgers
• Indiana (play in)

Assuming chalk for the rest of the bracket, here is who and where each team would play:

• #3 Michigan State:  Colgate then Colorado in Cleveland followed by Louisville then Gonzaga in Los Angeles.  
• #4 Wisconsin:  Stepehen F. Austin then BYU in Tampa followed by Kansas then Seton Hall in Indianapolis.  
• #4 Maryland:  Akron then Butler in Greensboro followed by SDSU then Dayton in NYC.  
• #5 Ohio State:  Vermont then Oregon in Spokane followed by Baylor then FSU in Houston.  
• #5 Penn State:  Liberty then Creighton in Sacramento followed by Gonzaga then Louisville in Los Angeles.  
• #6 Michigan:  ASU/Cincy then Kentucky in St. Louis followed by Seton Hall then Kansas in Indianapolis.  
• #6 Iowa:  Northern Iowa then Villanova in Albany followed by FSU then Baylor in Houston.  
• #7 Illinois:  Texas then Dayton in Cleveland followed by Dook then SDSU in NYC.  
• #10 Rutgers:  Zona then FSU in Tampa followed by Villanova then Baylor in Houston.  
• #11 Indiana:  Xavier in Dayton (play-in) followed by Colorado then MSU in Cleveland followed by Louisville then Gonzaga in Los Angeles.  

The good news for the conference is that with nobody left on the 8/9 lines  I think all of our teams would have at least a plausible chance to make it to the S16.  Based on past NCAA Tournament results (since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985) the expected results for those seeds would be:
A little better than six teams should make it to the R32:

• #3 MSU has an 85% chance
• #4 UW and UMD have a 79.28% chance each, adds to 158.57%
• #5 tOSU and PSU have a 64.29% chance each, adds to 128.57%
• #6 M and IA have a 62.86% chance each, adds to 125.71%
• #7 IL has a 60.71% chance
• #10 RU has a 39.29% chance
• #11 IU has a 50% chance to win the play-in and a 37.14% chance to win the 6/11 game if they do, adds to 18.57%
• 616.43% total which means that about six of our teams should make the R32

A little better than three teams should make the S16:

• #3 MSU has a 52.86% chance
• #4 UW and UMD have a 47.14% chance each, adds to 94.29%
• #5 tOSU and PSU have a 33.57% chance each, adds to 67.14%
• #6 M and IA have a 30% chance each, adds to 60%
• #7 IL has a 19.29% chance
• #10 RU has a 16.43% chance
• #11 IU has a 7.86% chance
• 317.86% total which means that about three of our teams should make the S16

A little better than one of our teams should make the E8:

• #3 MSU has a 25.71% chance
• #4 UW and UMD have a 15% chance each, adds to 30%
• #5 tOSU and PSU have a 6.43% chance each, adds to 12.86%
• #6 M and IA have a 10% chance each, adds to 20%
• #7 IL has a 7.14% chance
• #10 RU has a 5.71% chance
• #11 IU has a 2.86% chance
• 104.29% total which means that about one of our teams should make the E8

<1 of our teams should make the F4:

• #3 MSU has a 12.14% chance
• #4 UW and UMD have a 9.29% chance each, adds to 18.57%
• #5 tOSU and PSU have a 5% chance each, adds to 10%
• #6 M and IA have a 2.14% chance each, adds to 4.29%
• #7 IL has a 2.14% chance
• #10 RU has a 0.71% chance
• #11 IU has a 1.43% chance
• 49.29% total which means that, on average, this grouping of teams would produce a F4 team roughly every other year. 

We have around a one-in-five chance of putting a team in the NC Game:

• #3 MSU has a 7.86% chance
• #4 UW and UMD have a 2.14% chance each, adds to 4.29%
• #5 tOSU and PSU have a 2.14% chance each, adds to 4.29%
• #6 M and IA have a 1.43% chance each, adds to 2.86%
• #7 IL has a 0.71% chance
• #10 RU has a 0.00% chance
• #11 IU has a 0.00% chance

We have around one-in-fifteen or sixteen chance of winning an NC:

• #3 MSU has a 2.86% chance
• #4 UW and UMD have a 0.71% chance each, adds to 1.43%
• #5 tOSU and PSU have a 0.00% chance each
• #6 M and IA have a 0.71% chance each, adds to 1.43%
• #7 IL has a 0.71% chance
• 6.43% total which means that, on average, this grouping of teams would produce a NC roughly once every fifteen or sixteen years.  

[ELA]

My updated mock bracket going into the weekend

MIDWEST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 St. Francis(PA)/Prairie View A&M
• #8 RUTGERS vs. #9 Arizona
• #5 Kentucky vs. #12 Yale
• #4 PENN STATE vs. #13 Akron
• #3 Louisville vs. #14 Belmont
• #6 Butler vs. #11 Northern Iowa
• #7 Auburn vs. #10 Texas
• #2 MARYLAND vs. #15 Wright State

SOUTH

• #1 Baylor vs. #16 Siena/Norfolk State
• #8 Saint Mary's vs. #9 Wichita State
• #5 MICHIGAN vs. #12 Stephen F. Austin
• #4 Seton Hall vs. #13 Liberty
• #3 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #14 North Texas
• #6 West Virginia vs. #11 East Tennessee State
• #7 INDIANA vs. #10 Xavier
• #2 Florida State vs. #15 Texas State

WEST

• #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 UC Irvine
• #8 Colorado vs. #9 PURDUE
• #5 WISCONSIN vs. #12 Utah State/Providence
• #4 Oregon vs. #13 NM State
• #3 Creighton vs. #14 Northern Colorado
• #6 Houston vs. #11 USC
• #7 ILLINOIS vs. #10 LSU
• #2 Duke vs. #15 South Dakota State

EAST

• #1 San Diego State vs. #16 Winthrop
• #8 Marquette vs. #9 Oklahoma
• #5 BYU vs. #12 Richmond/Cincinnati
• #4 OHIO STATE vs. #13 Vermont
• #3 Villanova vs. #14 Colgate
• #6 IOWA vs. #11 Texas Tech
• #7 Virginia vs. #10 Florida
• #2 Dayton vs. #15 Hofstra

NIT
TEMPE

• #1 Arizona State vs. #8 Robert Morris
• #4 South Carolina vs. #5 Georgia Tech
• #3 Rhode Island vs. #6 TCU
• #2 Furman vs. #7 Boise State

PALO ALTO

• #1 Stanford vs. #8 Radford
• #4 Tulsa vs. #5 Clemson
• #3 Oklahoma State vs. #6 Duquesne
• #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 St. John's

FAYETTEVILLE

• #1 Arkansas vs. #8 Little Rock
• #4 UCLA vs. #5 Connecticut
• #3 Saint Louis vs. #6 Alabama
• #2 NC State vs. #7 SMU

MEMPHIS

• #1 Memphis vs. #8 North Dakota State
• #4 Notre Dame vs. #5 Georgetown
• #3 Tennessee vs. #6 UNC Greensboro
• #2 MINNESOTA vs. #7 Eastern Washington

[ELA]

ON the verge of the first potential bid steal.  #8 Drake up 16 on #1 Northern Iowa in the MVC quarterfinals.  UNI is #36 in the NET, and may get an at large bid anyway, which is the only way the MVC is a two bid league

[847badgerfan]

It's so cute to send the Badgers out West, especially with Oregon right next door. Ugh.

[mcwterps1]

Ugly first half and great second half for Michigan tonight. Nebraska disclaimers aside, hopefully that brings their confidence back.

I'll be at the Maryland game on Sunday and am looking forward to it....

Congrats on the win this coming Sunday. 
Turgeon will hand it to you "terrifically".