I think NET is meant to play pretty heavily into it, largely because NET is meant to distill a lot of those other things into its ranking.
Looking at Houston's team sheet, though, I do think Houston is unlikely to be a 1...
But when you look at the teams ahead of MSU/UM in NET, you see teams with pretty solid resumes as well. Gonzaga maybe doesn't have the SOS, but they have the wins and their only losses are to Tenn/UNC. The ACC teams have SOS and good road records. The SEC teams have less SOS but good road records as well. And neither the ACC team nor Tennessee has the same "bad" losses that MSU has with two losses to Indiana (one quad-1 and one quad-2) and the quad-2 loss to Illinois. Michigan has only quad 1 losses, but they're only 8-4 in quad 1 games which doesn't really differentiate them from the schools above them.
Kentucky is the weakest of the group above with quad-1 loss to Alabama and a quad-2 loss to Seton Hall. But with 9 quad-1 wins, they're right between UM (8) and MSU (10), not a big differentiator.
But I think right now you could easily see Gonzaga, two ACC teams, and whoever comes out better in the conference tourney between Tennessee and Kentucky getting the 1 seeds. I think you'd probably have to see two ACC teams and one SEC team slip HARD to finish the season for MSU/UM to leapfrog them.
(Adding a line because I got logged out and now it thinks I already posted this.)