B1G Bubble Watch:
In Lunardi's latest bracketology there isn't much change for the B1G's best teams. Wisconsin moves down to a #5 seed but otherwise the top six teams remain the same:
- #2 seeds: Michigan, Michigan State
- #3 seed: Purdue
- #5 seed: Wisconsin
- #6 seeds: Iowa, Maryland
After that, Lunardi still has Ohio State as a #9 seed while Minnesota is one of his "last four byes" with a #12 seed and Indiana is one of his "last four in" playing Oklahoma in Dayton for a #13 seed.
Lets talk about the bottom eight teams in the B1G:
6-7/16-8 Ohio State, projected to finish 8-12/18-13:The Buckeyes' loss last night at home to Illinois is, by far, their worst of the season but their overall profile can absorb that. That loss did, however, significantly narrow Ohio State's path. The projected 8-12/18-13 finish would, at best, mean that the Buckeyes would need to make a run in the United Center. Ohio State has two games left against Northwestern and they badly need to win both. They also have three long-shots (@PU, @UMD, @MSU) and two games that could go either way (vIA, vUW). To get to .500 they'll have to win all the winnable games. Anything less than that and they'll have work to do in Chicago.
6-8/16-9 Minnesota, projected to finish 7-13/17-14:The Gophers' loss in Lincoln is problematic because it narrows their path. IMHO their game against Indiana in Minneapolis on Saturday is close to a "must win". In theory they could lose at home to Indiana and make it anyway but in practice that would require winning tougher games later.
4-9/13-11 Indiana, projected to finish 5-15/14-17:The game in Minneapolis is important for the Hoosiers as well. IMHO, the loser (either way) is in major trouble.
6-8/10-15 Illinois, projected to finish 10-10/14-17:The Illini are an interesting case. IIRC, their 15 losses would be the most ever for an at-large team but they have some really good wins and a strong overall SoS. If they finish REALLY well I could see them getting in with 16 losses but that would require winning out to the BTT. Could they get in with 17 losses?
5-9/12-12 Rutgers, projected to finish 7-13/14-16:I do think that Rutgers has improved but not enough. They had a REALLY LONG way to go. They would need a miraculous finish involving winning nearly all of their remaining games.
4-10/14-11 Nebraska, projected to finish 5-15/15-16:Ever since the injury this just has not been a good team. They need a miracle.
3-10/12-12 Northwestern, projected to finish 5-15/14-17:IMHO, this is the worst team in the league right now and I just don't see them changing that. They need a miracle.
2-11/9-15 Penn State, projected to finish 3-17/10-21:The Nittany Lions have been close plenty of times and pulled off a nice upset over Michigan but they just have too many losses. They need a miracle.