B1G Bubble Watch:
According to Lunardi the B1G has three bubble teams. Ohio State and Minnesota are both listed among his "last four byes" as a #9 (tOSU) and #10 (MN) seeds while Indiana is barely out and included among his "first four out". However, that has not been updated since February 8 which was prior to Ohio State's win in Bloomington so it is a safe bet that when it gets updated the Buckeyes will have a bit more breathing room and the Hoosiers will be further out.
That said, I agree with Lunardi's assessment of B1G teams on the bubble. IMHO, the top-6 in the B1G standings (M, PU, MSU, UW, UMD, and IA) are all either locks (M) or "should be in" (the others). Conversely, PSU, UNL, NU, RU, and IL are all either in "need to win BTT" territory or "need a miraculous finish" territory.
Barring an unexpected collapse by one of our top teams or a spectacular finish by one of our bottom teams it appears to me that our bubble teams are the aforementioned Buckeyes, Gophers, and Hoosiers.
Ohio State 6-6/16-7 projected to finish 11-9/21-10:
The Buckeyes look a LOT better with the win in Bloomington than they looked before that. Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
- vNU
- vIL
- @NU
- vIA
- vUW
- @UMD
- @MSU
- @PU
As I see it, the Buckeyes should win the first two (a loss in either would be surprising/shocking) and go at least 2-1 in #3-#5. If they do that, they will hit the BTT at 10-10/20-11 and probably in or at most just needing to win their first game to avoid a bad loss. The major problem for the Buckeyes, as I see it, is that #6-8 are very difficult and thus extremely unlikely for the Buckeyes to win. Consequently, an unexpected loss would be troubling because it would be VERY difficult to make up for it.
Minnesota 6-7/16-8 projected to finish 7-13/17-14:
The problem for the Gophers is that their remaining schedule is rough. Note that we project them to go just 1-6 in these last seven games. The good news is that a number of those projected losses are winnable games. The bad news is that they'll need to win a bunch of them because 7-13/17-14 obviously would not be enough. Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
While we only project them to win #1, I consider #2-#4 to be "winnable" games while even #5 and #6 aren't impossible (because they are at home).
Indiana 4-9/13-11 projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
Much like Minnesota, the Hoosiers have a difficult remaining schedule. Indiana is in worse shape though because they have a worse record now. With nine conference losses already the Hoosiers have almost zero margin for error in their remaining seven games. Those remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
I'm having trouble seeing a plausible path to an at-large berth for the Hoosiers.