2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Ah, so Michigan is your Big Ten champs this year.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yeah, Purdue would be 18-8 against a double round robin, based on what I can tell from the post above. Projects to 13-7 against their actual schedule. They miss 5 projected wins and only 1 projected loss. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Yeah, Purdue would be 18-8 against a double round robin, based on what I can tell from the post above. Projects to 13-7 against their actual schedule. They miss 5 projected wins and only 1 projected loss.

Exactly, here is the whole thing:

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff	+Var	-Var	Var	Conf-W	Conf-L	OOC-W	OOC-L	ProjT-W	ProjT-L
M	UNL	tOSU	PU	IL	IA	RU	20	6	3	3	17	3	0.769	0.850	0.081	0	0	0	17	3	11	0	28	3
MSU	UMD	MN	NU	IL	PSU	UW	20	6	6	0	14	6	0.769	0.700	(0.069)	1	0	1	15	5	9	2	24	7
IU	UNL	tOSU	UW	UMD	MN	PSU	18	8	3	3	15	5	0.692	0.750	0.058	0	0	0	15	5	9	2	24	7
UW	MSU	PU	RU	IU	UNL	tOSU	18	8	4	2	14	6	0.692	0.700	0.008	1	(1)	0	14	6	8	3	22	9
UNL	NU	tOSU	UW	IU	M	RU	18	8	4	2	14	6	0.692	0.700	0.008	0	(1)	(1)	13	7	10	1	23	8
Purdue	IL	IA	RU	M	NU	UW	18	8	5	1	13	7	0.692	0.650	(0.042)	0	0	0	13	7	7	4	20	11
tOSU	MN	PSU	UW	IU	M	UNL	18	8	5	1	13	7	0.692	0.650	(0.042)	0	(1)	(1)	12	8	10	1	22	9
UMD	IL	IU	NU	IA	MSU	RU	13	13	3	3	10	10	0.500	0.500	-	0	0	0	10	10	9	2	19	12
Iowa	IL	UMD	M	MN	PSU	PU	13	13	4	2	9	11	0.500	0.450	(0.050)	0	(1)	(1)	8	12	11	0	19	12
Minny	IU	IA	PSU	MSU	NU	tOSU	6	20	1	5	5	15	0.231	0.250	0.019	2	0	2	7	13	10	1	17	14
NU	MN	PSU	PU	UMD	MSU	UNL	6	20	1	5	5	15	0.231	0.250	0.019	0	0	0	5	15	9	2	14	17
PSU	IU	IA	MSU	MN	NU	tOSU	6	20	2	4	4	16	0.231	0.200	(0.031)	0	0	0	4	16	7	4	11	20
ILL	M	MSU	RU	IA	UMD	PU	4	22	0	6	4	16	0.154	0.200	0.046	0	0	0	4	16	4	7	8	23
RU	UMD	M	UNL	IL	PU	UW	4	22	1	5	3	17	0.154	0.150	(0.004)	0	0	0	3	17	7	3	10	20

Purdue, for example, on a 26-game double-round-robin would lose eight games:

• At M
• At MSU
• At IU
• At UW
• At UNL
• At tOSU
• At UMD
• At Iowa

They only miss one of those (@IA) and they miss five projected wins (vM, vNU, vUW, @IL, @RU) so their 18-8 gets reduced to 13-7.  

[MichiFan87]

I admitted before the season that Michigan is fortunate to miss some tough away games (Ohio State, Purdue, Nebraska), but they also miss some easy home games (Rutgers, Illinois, Iowa being the road-only opponents), which I'm actually thankful for to keep the SOS higher.

Conversely, last year one could argue part of the reason they didn't win the BigTen is because they had all the other best teams on the road (MSU, OSU, NEB, UMD, PSU, PUR) while only playing some of the worst teams once at home (IND, MINN, RUT, ILL), while Purdue and Michigan State both had easier schedules.

[medinabuckeye1]

FYI I had replied to @Entropy who suggested that Nebraska was going to be tier-4. Suspect it was similar to my own statements earlier that Purdue was playing like a tier-3 team; i.e. as fans we are more negative about our own faults than our opponents'. 

My bad, I thought you were replying to my post.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I admitted before the season that Michigan is fortunate to miss some tough away games (Ohio State, Purdue, Nebraska), but they also miss some easy home games (Rutgers, Illinois, Iowa being the road-only opponents), which I'm actually thankful for to keep the SOS higher.

Conversely, last year one could argue part of the reason they didn't win the BigTen is because they had all the other best teams on the road (MSU, OSU, NEB, UMD, PSU, PUR) while only playing some of the worst teams once at home (IND, MINN, RUT, ILL), while Purdue and Michigan State both had easier schedules.

FWIW:
My comments on conference schedule are not meant to pick on a team.  I don't mean it like that at all.  The conference schedules are made by the conference not the school so it isn't a schools "fault" that they have an easy schedule.  I just lay out what it appears to be in terms of helpful/harmful.  

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (48 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

• Duke (1)
• Virginia (3)
• Gonzaga (2)
• MICHIGAN STATE (6)
• Tennessee (7)
• MICHIGAN (5)
• North Carolina (12)
• Kansas (4)
• Virginia Tech (11)
• Texas Tech (9)
• Auburn (10)
• Nevada (8)
• Oklahoma (14)
• Mississippi State (18)
• Iowa State (-)
• Houston (21)
• NC State (23)
• Kentucky (17)
• OHIO STATE (16)
• Florida State (15)
• NEBRASKA (13)
• TCU (20)
• PURDUE (-)
• Buffalo (-)
• WISCONSIN (19)

• 26. Maryland (34)
• 27. Indiana (24)
• 40. Iowa (38)
• 41. Minnesota (52)
• 56. Northwestern (53)
• 70. Penn State (66)
• 116. Rutgers (108)
• 128. Illinois (131)

[medinabuckeye1]

Massey composite rankings (48 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

• #4 MICHIGAN STATE (6)
• #6 MICHIGAN (5)
• #19 OHIO STATE (16)
• #21 NEBRASKA (13)
• #23 PURDUE (-)
• #25 WISCONSIN (19)

• 26. Maryland (34)
• 27. Indiana (24)
• 40. Iowa (38)
• 41. Minnesota (52)
• 56. Northwestern (53)
• 70. Penn State (66)
• 116. Rutgers (108)
• 128. Illinois (131)

The substantial gap between tier-1 (#4 and #6) and the top of tier-2 (#19) supports my earlier suggestion that we may need a blank "Tier-2" in between the Michigan Schools and everybody else.  I don't want to make that change just yet but there are four games in January that I will be watching to make that determination:

• MSU at UNL, 1/17
• M at UW, 1/19
• M at IU, 1/25
• MSU at PU, 1/27

If the Michigan Schools go even 2-2 in those along with MSU already owning a win in Columbus then I think it will be time to insert a blank tier between them and everybody else.  

Other than that the composite computer rankings seem to mostly mirror our current tiers with two exceptions:

• Per the composite computer rankings it appears that Maryland should move up to tier-2, and
• Per the composite computer rankings it appears that Minnesota should move up to tier-3.  

Minnesota is already at +2 based on their home win over UNL and their road win over UW so I will make that move with the next update unless they lose a game they shouldn't in the next week or so.  

Maryland I am less sure of.  They are at Minnesota tonight and they should lose that either way.  Then they host Indiana Friday and Wisconsin Monday.  Those two home games are games that they should win either way so it is more about scores.  Ie, if they get run out of the gym by Minnesota then barely beat IU and UW I think I'll leave them in tier-3.  OTOH, if they barely lose to Minnesota and run IU and UW out of the gym then I'll move them up.  The more likely scenario, of course, is something in between so we'll wait and see.  

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1082747453517033472?s=19

[betarhoalphadelta]

Vegas has MSU as 7 point favorites over Purdue.

I would have thought it would be higher than that. 

[ELA]

Langford out again.

Ahrens looks like he should be good to go though.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue started really well... 

...and then not so much. 

[ELA]

Both teams getting non stop second chance points

[ELA]

Team clearly needs the long upcoming Tuesday-Sunday gap.  Third game they've played since Purdues last game, and it's showing here big time second half.  Purdue all over the offensive glass.