Chrome crashed and I lost a long post so I'm redoing it. Here is
the article it is from.
Allegedly the model being pushed by Petitti and that the committee is leaning towards is:
- 4 SEC
- 4 B1G
- 2 ACC
- 2 B12
- 1 G5
- 3 At-Large
- 16 Total
But it isn't a straight 1v16 . . .8v9 bracket because apparently that would be way too simple. Instead it is:
First round (basically a play-in):
- #13 vs #16 (at #13?)
- #14 vs #15 (at #14?)
Second round (#1 and #2 get a bye and I think it is more-or-less presumed that #1 and #2 will generally be the SEC and B1G Champions but this isn't a lock):
- #14/15 at #3
- #13/16 at #4
- #12 at #5
- #11 at #6
- #10 at #7
- #9 at #8
Quarter-Finals (traditional bowls):
- #1 vs 8/9
- #2 vs 7/10
- #3/14/15 vs 6/11
- #4/13/16 vs #5/12
Semi-Finals:
- #1/8/9 vs 4/13/16/5/12
- #2/7/10 vs 3/14/15/6/11
Then there is the caveat that apparently Petitti wants the B1G #3 through #6 to face each other on CCG weekend to determine the 3rd and 4th spots. I assume that the SEC would do the same thing.
So applying that to last year here is what you have going into CCG weekend:
- 12-0 Oregon is playing #3 Penn State in the B1GCG but both teams are guaranteed a spot. The winner gets a bye.
- 11-1 Texas is playing #5 Georgia in the SECCG. Texas is guaranteed a spot either way. With a win they get a bye.
- 11-1 Penn State is playing #1 Oregon in the B1GCG for a bye.
- 11-1 Notre Dame is done and will go to the playoff. In theory they could get a bye if Texas and PSU both lose but as a practical matter probably not because UGA would jump them by beating Texas (in practice this is exactly what happened last year. UGA jumped them for beating Texas while CCG losers Texas and PSU stayed ahead of them so ND actually dropped a spot).
- 10-2 UGA is playing #2 Texas in the SECCG likely for a bye.
- 10-2 tOSU is playing (hosting?) either IL or IA for the B1G's 3rd CFP spot.
- 10-2 Tennessee is playing either Bama, LSU, USCe, aTm, Ole Miss, or Mizzou for the SEC's 3rd CFP spot*.
- 11-1 SMU is playing #17 Clemson in the ACCCG. Both teams get CFP bids and neither has a shot at a bye. The loser of this game *MIGHT* drop toe the play-in round.
- 11-1 Indiana is playing (hosting?) either IL or IA for the B1G's 4th CFP spot.
- 11-1 Boise St is playing #20 UNLV with the G5 spot on the line.
- 9-3 Bama*
- 10-2 Miami is done.
- 9-3 Ole Miss*
- 9-3 USCe
- 10-2 ASU is playing #16 ISU in the B12CG. Both teams have a guaranteed spot in the CFP but the loser is likely relegated to the play-in round.
- 10-2 ISU is playing #15 ASU in the B12CG. See above for ASU, same applies.
- 9-3 Clemson is playing #8 SMU in the ACCCG. Both teams get CFP bids and neither has a shot at a bye but with a loss Clemson *MIGHT* be relegated to the play-in round.
*SEC
This is a convoluted mess because there is a logjam of six teams at 5-3 all tied for 4th place.
Texas was #1 at 7-1. Georgia and Tennessee were tied for 2nd at 6-2 and the Bulldogs beat the Volunteers so UGSA goes to the SECCG against Texas. 4th-9th are:
- 5-3 Bama
- 5-3 LSU
- 5-3 USCe
- 5-3 aTm
- 5-3 Ole Miss
- 5-3 Mizzou
For purposes of simplicity I'm going to solve this based on CFP rankings so:
- #4 is #11 Bama
- #5 is #13 Ole Miss
- #6 is #14 USCe
Thus the SEC games on CCG weekend are:
- UGA vs Texas, SECCG
- Tennessee vs USCe (at TN?)
- Bama vs Ole Miss (at Bama?)
Then based on results that actually happened for the games that actually happened and higher ranked team winning for the games that didn't, the CFP final rankings/seedings would be:
- 13-0 Oregon
- 11-2 Georgia
- 11-2 Texas
- 11-2 Penn State
- 11-1 Notre Dame
- 11-2 Ohio State (beat IA/IL in assumed game)
- 11-2 Tennessee (beat USCe in assumed game)
- 12-1 Indiana (beat IA/IL in assumed game)
- 12-1 Boise St
- 11-2 SMU
- 10-3 Bama (beat Ole Miss in assumed game)
- 11-2 ASU
- 10-2 Miami
- 10-3 Clemson
- ? ? ?
- 10-3 ISU
The #15 spot goes to an at-large team (the other at-large teams are Miami and Notre Dame). This could be:
- 9-4 Ole Miss loser to Bama in SEC 4th place game was #14 at 9-3
- 9-4 USCe loser to Tennessee in SEC 3rd place game was #15 at 9-3
- 10-2 BYU was #17.
I *THINK* this would go to BYU so thus the CFP is:
Play-in Round:
- #16 10-3 ISU at #13 10-2 Miami
- #15 10-2 BYU at #14 10-3 Clemson
Second round:
- Clemson/BYU at #3 11-2 Texas
- Miami/ISU at #4 11-2 Penn State
- #12 11-2 ASU at #5 11-1 Notre Dame
- #11 10-3 Bama at #6 11-2 Ohio State
- #10 11-2 SMU at #7 11-2 Tennessee
- #9 12-1 Boise at #8 12-1 Indiana
Quarter-Finals:
- #1 13-0 Oregon vs Boise/Indiana
- #2 11-2 Georgia vs Tennessee/SMU
- Texas/Clemson/BYU vs tOSU/Bama (tOSU/Texas actually happened)
- PSU/Miami/ISU vs Notre Dame/ASU (PSU/Notre Dame actually happened)
Semi-Finals:
- Oregon/Boise/IU vs PSU/Miami/ISU/ND/ASU
- Georgia/Tennessee/SMU vs Texas/Clemson/BYU/tOSU/Bama
