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Rutgers has won 2 straight home games, MSU has lost 2 straight road games; and it's not like the road wins over Minnesota and Michigan prior to that were overly convincing.

I think MSU can win, but they need to prove it away from East Lansing, and presumably lock up a New Years Day Bowl.

Michigan State looked like they had put the previous week in the rear view mirror in a hurry.  They scored touchdowns on two of their three first quarter drives, totaling 154 yards, and were inside the 1 on their fourth drive, looking to take a commanding 21-0 lead, on pace for over 600 yards of offense.  Then the fumble, and the ship never righted.  The Spartans never found the end zone again,  and only had 135 more yards of offense the rest of the game.  The defense was largely up to the task, holding Maryland to 66 yards and 3 first downs through three quarters, until they decided to employ the same garbage prevent defense that nearly cost them the Minnesota game too.  While Mark Dantonio will likely win Big Ten Coach of the Year for Michigan State flipping 3-9 to possibly 9-3, but don't overlook the job Chris Ash has done, even if it ends at 4-8.  This wasn't just the worst team in the Big Ten a year ago, they were 49-0 worse than Michigan State, the next worst team.  They aren't setting the world on fire, but they have won three Big Ten games, been more or less competitive, and have a very good shot to finish .500 in the conference, returning home where they've played good ball.  The road has continued to be a struggle, but Rutgers is riding a two game home winning streak.  Michigan State has had all sorts of problems on the road.  Really, aside from the win in Ann Arbor, they've been bad on the road, losing to Northwestern, getting crushed by Ohio State, and nearly blowing a big lead at Minnesota.  The question is whether Rutgers can do anything against a Michigan State defense that has largely been great.  When they've struggled, they've struggled badly; against Notre Dame, Ohio State and Northwestern.  Three teams that spread the Spartans out and exploited athletic mismatches.  Rutgers can't do that at all.  Janarion Grant is a mismatch for any defense, but they simply can't get him the ball.  Against Michigan they resorted to running the wildcat, and while he did break one 65 yard touchdown, he was held to 1.5 ypc on his other carries.  They have to get the ball to him, but he's much more dangerous out in the open in one on one, than trying to make something happen behind the line.  Unless the Rutgers passing attack,  averaging a Big Ten worst 95 ypg can flip something, it's tough to see them moving the ball with any consistency, or hitting enough big plays to compensate.
MICHIGAN STATE 31, RUTGERS 12