Seemingly every year, partially due to their style of play, Michigan State seems to get a disproportionate number of one score games (2013 historical consistent domination year aside), and while you'd expect the results to even out over time, which they do, anecdotally they seem to all go one way or the other in a given year. This is appearing to be an "every bounce goes green" kind of year. Northwestern is probably the best team Michigan State has faced since upsetting Michigan, but as far as matchups go, they appear to be a better matchup than Indiana, who had playmakers on the outside who could expose Michigan State's young cornerbacks in single coverage. Northwestern, per usual, wants to establish the run, and that plays right into Michigan State's strength, where they are 2nd in the Big Ten in run defense in both yards per play and yards per game. Where this Spartan defense seems to be excelling where even the fairly talented 2014 and 2015 versions were not, is that they are limiting the big plays, which had always been their Achilles heel (again 2013 aside). Michigan State has only allowed three runs of 20 yards or more, fewer than all but two FBS teams; and only 17 runs of 10 yards or more, fewer than all but 3 FBS teams. Point being, if you want to score, you have to sustain drives. Teams have done that, most notable Michigan's opening drive, but eventually offenses get impatient. The Spartans' 29.5% opposing third down conversion rate is second to only Michigan in conference play. So if you don't allow big plays, and you get off the field on 3rd down, that adds up to success. Northwestern has probably the best QB-RB backfield Michigan State has seen since Notre Dame, but what the Irish have, that Northwestern doesn't, is an offensive line. Thorson and Jackson don't look like the same players as 2016, but they simply don't have the blocking they had a year ago. They've surrendered a Big Ten leading 16 sacks through 4 games and their running game is averaging 3.1 ypc, better only than Indiana. I'm not sure this is the game Michigan State's offense puts it together, but they've done a good job in Big Ten play of reversing the turnover trend from September, and in a big field position game, holding onto ball wil lbe important, and in terms of trench play, I think Michigan State's front seven has a bigger edge over Northwestern's offensive line, than the Wildcats' front has over Michigan State's line.
MICHIGAN STATE 24, NORTHWESTERN 17
