I will state it more simply. Iowa has a better defense than Michigan. Iowa has an adequate offense, which I believe is in equipoise with Michigan.
I don't think Iowa has had a turnover this year. Certainly, no interceptions. Michigan has turned it over.
If it comes down to the kicking game . . . I don't think Iowa has had a kicking game this good since 1985 with Reggie Roby and Rob Houghtlin. We know how that Michigan-Iowa game turned out. A superior kicking game probably makes about 3-5 points difference. It was the difference between a win and a loss for Iowa, over Iowa State.
Still, this is a dangerous game. Michigan is looking for a big win, something that has proven elusive. And, unlike the game they played against the Badgers, this one is at home.