I know that we already have a tOSU/M thread but that is for general tOSU/M hate stuff, this game deserves it's own thread.
So Ohio State comes in undefeated and a near-double-digit favorite but if that sounds familiar it should because it has happened a few times recently and the results have not been as expected.
Michigan, of course, has won the last four and hasn't lost since before the pandemic but that comes with two big caveats:
- They didn't lose in 2020 because their dirtbag coach faked a covid outbreak to duck his beating, and
- The wins in 2021, 2022, and 2023 were aided by the same dirtbag coach's cheating scheme (we can debate the extent to which the cheating helped but that it happened and helped is factual and not subject to valid disagreement).
I think the biggest story here is the status of Ohio State's injured players. With Smith and Tate the Buckeyes have the best WR corps this side of the NFL but without them Ohio State's WR corps is merely good rather than out-freaking-standing and the other guys are a bit lacking in experience due to playing behind Smith and Tate. There are also a couple of questions for tOSU defenders.
My take is that if Smith and Tate are 100% and provided that the tOSU coaching staff coaches to their team's abilities and strengths instead of trying to prove their toughness by playing into Michigan's strengths the whole freaking game like last year, Ohio State should win comfortably and Michigan would need a near-perfect game plus probably some turnover luck to pull off the upset. OTOH, if Smith and Tate can't go then I think things get dicey fast. The Ohio State running game is clearly the weakness of the offense. The last few games it has looked decent but against absolutely terrible opposition so I don't think that says much. Realistically, the only way Ohio State is going to run effectively on Michigan is if the Wolverines have to be concerned with covering Smith and Tate outside. If that goes away, Ohio State's running game goes with it.
Even if Smith and Tate can't go, I *THINK* that Ohio State's defense is good enough to keep them in the game, WR3 and WR4 have a few games experience, and the TE's (mostly Klare) have been phenomenal so I wouldn't automatically assume a Michigan win if Smith and Tate are out but I do think that the evil cheaters would have a better than 50/50 shot.
What say you?