A key game I think is the opener with UCF. Presuming they won't hang with Auburn, an 0-2 start would be demoralizing obviously. At UVA also looks pivotal to me.
The rest are winnable games, though they could slip up if the injury bug hits or if they just have a couple bad games. Presuming a decent level of improvement over last year, 10-2 is not out of the realm of possibility, and 8-4 seems realistic, to me.