ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions

[ELA]

November 12 Poll
1. Alabama (10-0)
2. OHIO STATE (10-0)
3. WISCONSIN (10-0)
4. Oklahoma State (10-0)
5. Stanford (9-1)
6. PENN STATE (9-1)
7. MICHIGAN (9-1)
8. Miami (9-1)
9. Colorado (10-1)
10. Florida State (8-2)
11. Washington State (10-1)
12. Florida (9-1)
13. Kansas State (9-1)
14. Clemson (8-2)
15. South Florida (10-0)
16. USC (9-2)
17. Washington (8-2)
18. LSU (8-2)
19. Louisville (8-2)
20. Auburn (8-2)
21. Georgia Tech (8-2)
22. Virginia Tech (8-2)
23. NORTHWESTERN (8-2)
24. Oklahoma (7-3)
25. Tennessee (7-3)

[ELA]

WEEK 12
Tuesday, November 14
Akron d. Ohio
Kent State d. Central Michigan

Wednesday, November 15
Miami(Ohio) d. Eastern Michigan
Toledo d. Bowling Green
Western Michigan d. Northern Illinois


Thursday, November 16
#15 South Florida d. Tulsa

Ball State d. Buffalo

Friday, November 17
New Mexico d. UNLV
Western Kentucky d. Middle Tennessee

Saturday, November 18
ESPN College Gameday, live from Madison, WI
#3 WISCONSIN 25, #7 MICHIGAN 17

#1 Alabama d. Mercer
#2 OHIO STATE d. ILLINOIS
#4 Oklahoma State d. #13 Kansas State
#5 Stanford d. California
#6 PENN STATE d. NEBRASKA
#8 Miami d. Virginia
#10 Florida State d. Delaware State
#12 Florida d. UAB
#14 Clemson d. The Citadel
#16 USC d. UCLA
#17 Washington d. Utah
#25 Tennessee d. #18 LSU
#19 Louisville d. Syracuse
#20 Auburn d. UL Monroe
#21 Georgia Tech d. Duke
#22 Virginia Tech d. Pittsburgh
#23 NORTHWESTERN d. MINNESOTA
#24 Oklahoma d. Kansas

Arkansas d. Mississippi State
Arkansas State d. Texas State
Army d. North Texas
Baylor d. Iowa State
Boise State d. Air Force
Boston College d. Connecticut
BYU d. Massachusetts
Cincinnati d. East Carolina
Colorado State d. San Jose State
Florida Atlantic d. FIU
Georgia d. Kentucky
Hawaii d. Utah State
Houston d. Tulane
Idaho d. Coastal Carolina
INDIANA d. RUTGERS
IOWA d. PURDUE
Louisiana d. NM State
Louisiana Tech d. UTEP
Memphis d. SMU
MICHIGAN STATE d. MARYLAND
North Carolina d. Western Carolina
Notre Dame d. Navy
Old Dominion d. Rice
Oregon d. Arizona
Oregon State d. Arizona State
San Diego State d. Nevada
South Alabama d. Georgia Southern
South Carolina d. Wofford
Southern Miss d. Charlotte
TCU d. Texas Tech
Temple d. Central Florida
Texas A&M d. Ole Miss
UTSA d. Marshall
Vanderbilt d. Missouri
Wake Forest d. NC State
West Virginia d. Texas
Wyoming d. Fresno State

[medinabuckeye1]

BIG TEN
EAST
Ohio State (7-0) 10-0
Michigan (6-1) 9-1
Penn State (6-1) 9-1
Maryland (2-5) 4-6
Indiana (1-6) 4-6
Michigan State (1-6) 2-8
Rutgers (1-6) 2-8

Heading into the final two games (per ELA's predictions) it would be down to the Big three as all of the others are long-since mathematically eliminated.  What each would need:
Ohio State:

• Beat Michigan.  With a win over the Wolverines the Buckeyes would finish no worse than tied with PSU and would win the tie. 
• Beat Illinois and lose to Michigan and Michigan loses to Wisconsin and Penn State loses to either Nebraska or Maryland.  It is obvously a long shot but in that scenario the Buckeyes would tie PSU and win that tie. 
• Lose to both Illinois and Michigan and get a whole lot of help.  Losing the last two the Buckeyes would need Michigan to lose their other game (@UW) and for Penn State to lose to Nebraska and beat Maryland.  All of that would create a three-way tie in which the tied teams were 1-1 against each other.  The three would also be 5-1 in the division with the second loss for each being to a B1G-W team (UW for Michigan, UNL for PSU, and ILL for tOSU).  That would be decided by random draw. 

Michigan:

• Win out and hope for a PSU loss or to win the Random Draw.  At 8-1 they would win a tie with Ohio State but lose a tie with Penn State so they would need either a PSU loss or for Ohio State to beat Illinois and then to win the random draw with all three at 8-1. 
• Lose to Wisconsin, beat Ohio State, and for PSU to lose at least one game, preferably to Maryland.  PSU's loss to Maryland would knock them out based on divisional record and Michigan would beat tOSU based on H2H. 

Penn State:

• Win out and hope for at least one Ohio State loss, preferably to Illinois. 

[medinabuckeye1]

BIG TEN
WEST
Wisconsin (7-0) 10-0
Northwestern (5-2) 8-2
Minnesota (5-2) 7-3
Iowa (3-4) 6-4
Nebraska (3-4) 5-5
Illinois (1-6) 2-8
Purdue (1-6) 2-8

Heading into the last two games the West would be down to just Wisconsin and Minnesota.  If you want to know why Northwestern is eliminated, here it is:

• In order to catch Wisconsin they have to win out.  That requires beating Minnesota and Illinois. 
• They also need Wisconsin to lose out (vM, @MN). 
• The problem is that Northwestern's win over Minnesota would knock Minnesota out of contention such that the best Northwestern could do is a two-way tie with Wisconsin and they lost to Wisconsin so they lose that tie. 

What each team needs:
Wisconsin:

• Either win one of their last two games (vM, @MN) or
• Minnesota to lose either of their last two games (@NU, vMN). 

Minnesota:

• Win out (@NU, vUW), AND
• Wisconsin to lose their other game (vM). 

[ELA]

ACC
ATLANTIC
Florida State (7-1) 9-2
Clemson (6-2) 9-2
Louisville (6-2) 9-2
NC State (3-4) 7-4
Wake Forest (3-4) 5-6
Boston College (1-6) 5-6
Syracuse (0-7) 3-8

COASTAL
Miami (6-1) 10-1
Georgia Tech (6-2) 9-2
Virginia Tech (5-2) 9-2
Pittsburgh (5-2) 7-4
North Carolina (2-5) 6-5
Duke (1-6) 4-7
Virginia (0-7) 2-9

BIG XII
Oklahoma State (8-0) 11-0
Kansas State (7-1) 9-2
Oklahoma (6-2) 8-3
TCU (5-3) 7-4
West Virginia (5-3) 7-4
Baylor (3-5) 5-6
Texas (3-5) 5-6
Texas Tech (2-6) 4-7
Iowa State (1-7) 3-8
Kansas (0-8) 1-10

BIG TEN
EAST
Ohio State (8-0) 11-0
Penn State (7-1) 10-1
Michigan (6-2) 9-2
Indiana (2-6) 5-6
Maryland (2-6) 4-7
Michigan State (2-6) 3-8
Rutgers (1-7) 2-9

WEST
Wisconsin (8-0) 11-0
Northwestern (6-2) 9-2
Minnesota (5-3) 7-4
Iowa (4-4) 7-4
Nebraska (3-5) 5-6
Illinois (1-7) 2-9
Purdue (1-7) 2-9

PAC 12
NORTH
Stanford (8-1) 10-1
Washington State (7-1) 10-1
Washington (6-2) 9-2
Oregon (3-5) 5-6
California (2-6) 4-7
Oregon State (2-6) 4-7

SOUTH
Colorado (7-1) 10-1
USC (7-2) 10-2
Utah (4-4) 6-5
UCLA (3-5) 4-7
Arizona (0-8) 2-9
Arizona State (0-8) 1-10

SEC
EAST
Florida (8-0) 10-1
Tennessee (5-2) 8-3
Georgia (5-3) 8-3
Kentucky (3-5) 6-5
South Carolina (3-5) 5-6
Vanderbilt (3-4) 7-4
Missouri (0-7) 4-7

WEST
Alabama (7-0) 11-0
Auburn (6-1) 9-2
LSU (4-3) 8-3
Texas A&M (4-3) 8-3
Arkansas (3-4) 7-4
Mississippi State (0-7) 4-7
Ole Miss (0-7) 3-8

AMERICAN
EAST
South Florida (7-0) 11-0
Temple (4-3) 7-4
Central Florida (3-4) 5-6
Cincinnati (3-4) 5-6
Connecticut (1-6) 2-9
East Carolina (0-7) 1-10

WEST
Tulsa (6-1) 8-3
Houston (5-2) 9-2
Memphis (5-2) 9-2
Navy (4-3) 6-4
SMU (2-5) 5-6
Tulane (2-5) 4-7

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
Old Dominion (7-0) 9-2
Western Kentucky (6-1) 9-2
Middle Tennessee (6-1) 7-4
FIU (4-3) 6-5
Florida Atlantic (3-4) 4-7
Charlotte (2-5) 4-7
Marshall (0-7) 1-10

WEST
Louisiana Tech (6-1) 8-3
Southern Miss (5-2) 6-5
UTSA (4-3) 6-5
North Texas (3-4) 4-7
UTEP (2-5) 2-9
UAB (1-6) 3-8
Rice (0-7) 0-11

MAC
EAST
Miami(Ohio) (5-2) 8-3
Ohio (5-2) 8-3
Akron (3-4) 4-7
Kent State (3-4) 4-7
Bowling Green (2-5) 3-8
Buffalo (1-6) 3-8

WEST
Western Michigan (7-0) 10-1
Toledo (6-1) 9-2
Northern Illinois (4-3) 5-6
Central Michigan (3-4) 5-6
Eastern Michigan (2-5) 4-7
Ball State (1-6) 3-8

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
Boise State (6-1) 8-3
Wyoming (5-2) 8-3
New Mexico (5-2) 7-4
Air Force (4-3) 6-5
Colorado State (4-4) 6-6
Utah State (0-7) 1-10

PACIFIC
San Diego State (6-1) 9-2
Hawaii (6-2) 7-4
Fresno State (2-5) 3-8
UNLV (2-5) 3-8
San Jose State (2-5) 3-9
Nevada (1-6) 2-9

SUN BELT
Appalachian State (6-0) 9-1
Troy (6-0) 8-2
Idaho (4-2) 6-4
South Alabama (4-3) 5-6
Arkansas State (3-3) 4-6
Georgia State (3-3) 4-6
Louisiana (3-3) 4-6
NM State (3-3) 4-6
UL Monroe (3-4) 4-7
Georgia Southern (2-4) 3-7
Texas State (1-6) 2-9
Coastal Carolina (0-7) 2-9

INDEPENDENTS
BYU (9-3)
Army (6-5)
Notre Dame (5-6)
Massachusetts (3-9)

[medinabuckeye1]

BIG TEN
EAST
Ohio State (8-0) 11-0
Penn State (7-1) 10-1
Michigan (6-2) 9-2
Indiana (2-6) 5-6
Maryland (2-6) 4-7
Michigan State (2-6) 3-8
Rutgers (1-7) 2-9

WEST
Wisconsin (8-0) 11-0
Northwestern (6-2) 9-2
Minnesota (5-3) 7-4
Iowa (4-4) 7-4
Nebraska (3-5) 5-6
Illinois (1-7) 2-9
Purdue (1-7) 2-9

Based on ELA's predictions the B1GCG would be set before the final week's games. 


In the East:
The worst Ohio State can do is a tie with PSU at 8-1 and the Buckeyes beat the Lions so the Buckeyes are headed for Indianapolis. 


In the West:
Wisconsin will be outright champions no matter what.  The worst they can do is 8-1 and no other team can match that. 

[ELA]

November 19 Poll
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. OHIO STATE (11-0)
3. WISCONSIN (11-0)
4. Oklahoma State (11-0)
5. Stanford (10-1)
6. PENN STATE (10-1)
7. Miami (10-1)
8. Colorado (10-1)
9. Florida State (9-2)
10. Washington State (10-1)
11. Florida (10-1)
12. MICHIGAN (9-2)
13. Clemson (9-2)
14. South Florida (11-0)
15. USC (10-2)
16. Washington (9-2)
17. Louisville (9-2)
18. Auburn (9-2)
19. Kansas State (9-2)
20. Georgia Tech (9-2)
21. Virginia Tech (9-2)
22. NORTHWESTERN (9-2)
23. Tennessee (8-3)
24. Oklahoma (8-3)
25. LSU (8-3)

[medinabuckeye1]

The other P5 CG's based on ELA's predictions:
ACC:
Florida State has clinched the Atlantic Division. 
The Coastal Division is MUCH more complicated:

• Miami (FL) has the inside track at 6-1 but they travel to Pittsburgh to play the Panthers in the last week. 
• If Miami wins, they face FSU in the ACCCG. 
• If Miami loses they, Pitt, and GaTech will all finish 6-2.  Additionally, VaTech will also finish 6-2 if they beat Virginia (should be easy).  Thus, if Miami loses there will be either a three-way or a four-way tie atop the ACC-Coastal.  The first tiebreaker is H2H2H (or H2H2H2H) as the case may be.  In the four-way tie Miami would be 2-1 (wins over GaTech and VaTech, loss to Pitt).  I didn't check the rest. 

Big12:
There are no divisions in the Big12, instead the top two teams go to the CG.  Oklahoma State would already have clinched as they could do no worse than a tie for first.  Kansas State would already have clinched the second spot because they could do no worse than a tie for second with Oklahoma at 7-2 and back in week-8 ELA predicted that Kansas State would beat Oklahoma. 


PAC 12:
North:
Stanford would already have clinched because they could do no worse than a tie with WSU and ELA predicted that Stanford would beat WSU. 


South:
Colorado would already have clinched because they could do no worse than a tie with USC and ELA predicted that Colorado would beat USC. 
SEC:
East:
Florida would already have clinched. 


West:
Alabama and Auburn would be playing for the SEC-W berth in the SECCG.  This could get really interesting because if Bama were to lose to Auburn they would be in a similar situation to what Ohio State was in last year.  They would finish 11-1 and a co-Division Champion but with no CG.  They would also have a win over an ACC Divisional Champion and potential ACC Champ (FSU) much like Ohio State, last year, had a win over a P5 Champion (Oklahoma).  Additionally, if Bama were to lose to Auburn it would be on the road and, like Penn State last year, the Tigers would have both an OOC loss (@Clemson) and a conference loss (@LSU). 


The CFP implications get really interesting:
Alabama (@Auburn) and Florida (vFSU) would essentially be playing 1/8th finals for the NC because for either of them the path to the NC is very clear:

• Beat rival (Auburn/FSU) "1/8th final"
• Win SECCG "quarterfinal"
• Win CFP semi-final
• Win CFP Championship

However, if Florida and Bama were both to lose the SEC's playoff hopes would be somewhat tenuous.  Alabama would finish with the best record (11-1/7-1) but the Florida/Auburn winner would be the SEC Champion with a record of 11-2.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles picking up a HUGE quality win on the road against the Gators would bolster their chances but they'd still be a two-loss team. 

[847badgerfan]

FSU vs. Miami for the ACC title??


Who woulda thunk it back in 2003?

[medinabuckeye1]

CFP view heading into the final week based on ELA's predictions:

• Bama is in good shape, but they would need a LOT of help if they lost to Auburn and a not insignificant amount of help if they lost the SECCG to Florida. 
• Ohio State could probably afford a loss to Michigan so long as they went on to win the B1GCG.  Losing to Wisconsin, however, would knock the Buckeyes out. 
• Wisconsin, much like Ohio State, could probably afford a loss to Minnesota so long as they went on to win the B1GCG.  Wisconsin's case would be marginally weaker because their best OOC win would be BYU which is probably not as good as Ohio State's OOC win over Oklahoma.  Additionally, Wisconsin would not play Penn State while Ohio State would. 
• Oklahoma State:  The Cowboy's OOC of Tulsa, SoBama, and Pitt doesn't afford them much room for error.  They would probably need to win out (vKU, B12CG) to get to the CFP. 
• Stanford is in good shape because either #2 or #3 will have to lose.  So long as Stanford wins out (vND, P12CG) they are in. 
• Penn State is in a tough spot.  I can't see how they could pass the B1G Champion.  Even if Ohio State (@M) and Wisconsin (vMN) both lose their final game the tOSU/UW winner would still have a better record than PSU, a Championship, and (if it is Ohio State) a H2H win. 
• Miami may seem out of it here but they most certainly are not.  If they were to win out (@Pitt, vFSU in ACCCG) they would finish 12-1 with an ACC Championship.  That easily gets them ahead of PSU and the tOSU/UW loser.  At that point all they need is for Bama, OkSU, or Stanford to lose and they are likely in. 
• Colorado is still very much alive.  If they were to win out (@Utah, vStanford in P12CG) that would at least get them ahead of PSU, Stanford, and the tOSU/UW loser.  Then all they need is for Bama, OkSU, or Miami to lose and they are likely in. 
• Florida State could be alive, it depends.  They would likely get a lot of credit for the OOC loss to Bama especially if they balanced it out by beating the other SEC Divisional Champion in their regular season finale.  Two losses hurts but it helps to have highly ranked opponents (#1 Bama, #7 Miami (probably twice), #11 Florida, #13 Clemson, #17 LVille).  That would be a LOT of SoS credit. 
• Washington State is effectively out because they can't get to the P12CG and I can't see a PAC12 non-Champion leap-frogging enough teams to get there. 
• Florida is very much alive.  Per ELA's predictions the Gators started out with a loss to (now) #12 Michigan and they are now on a 10-game winning streak.  What really gives them a chance is that their last two games are v#9FSU and (likely) v#1Bama.  If they close out their season with back-to-back top-10 wins, 12 straight wins, and an SEC Championship they are absolutely in. 
• Michigan is effectively out because they can't get to their CG and a 2-loss non-Champion is not going to the CFP. 
• Clemson, see Michigan. 
• USF, not happening in a year like what ELA has predicted here where there are still four P5 undefeated teams and an additional six 1-loss P5 teams this late in the season. 
• USC, see Michigan. 
• Washington, see Michigan. 
• Louisville, see Michigan. 
• Auburn is interesting.  At #18 and with two losses they seem hopeless but if they win out (v#1Bama, v#11Florida) they would be in the mix, particularly if Florida took out FSU before losing to the Tigers.  As an 11-2 SEC Champion with back-to-back wins over Bama and Florida they would move up a LOT.  I think they would still need help though and their biggest problem might be Bama.  I'm not sure that they would pass Bama.  Even with a loss to Auburn the Tide would still have a better record, a MUCH stronger OOC win and, unlike Auburn no OOC losses.  That sounds familiar from somewhere . . .
• KSU can win the B12 but they can't make the CFP. 
• GaTech might have a mathematical shot at the ACC Championship but they don't have a practical chance at the CFP. 
• VaTech, see GaTech. 
• Northwestern, see Michigan. 
• Tennessee, see Michigan only with an additional loss. 
• Oklahoma, see Tennessee. 
• LSU, see Tennessee. 

[ELA]

WEEK 13
Tuesday, November 21
Akron d. Kent State
Eastern Michigan d. Bowling Green
Miami(Ohio) d. Ball State

Thanksgiving
Mississippi State d. Ole Miss

Friday, November 24
#7 Miami d. Pittsburgh
#14 South Florida d. Central Florida
#21 Virginia Tech d. Virginia

Arkansas d. Missouri
Central Michigan d. Northern Illinois
Houston d. Navy
NEBRASKA d. IOWA
Ohio d. Buffalo
San Diego State d. New Mexico
TCU d. Baylor
Texas d. Texas Tech
Toledo d. Western Michigan
Troy d. Texas State
UCLA d. California
Western Kentucky d. FIU

Saturday, November 25
ESPN College Gameday, live from Auburn, AL
#18 Auburn 24, #1 Alabama 23

#12 MICHIGAN d. #2 OHIO STATE
#3 WISCONSIN d. MINNESOTA
#4 Oklahoma State d. Kansas
#5 Stanford d. Notre Dame
#6 PENN STATE d. MARYLAND
#8 Colorado d. Utah
#11 Florida d. #9 Florida State
#16 Washington d. #10 Washington State
#13 Clemson d. South Carolina
#17 Louisville d. Kentucky
#19 Kansas State d. Iowa State
#20 Georgia Tech d. Georgia
#22 NORTHWESTERN d. ILLINOIS
#23 Tennessee d. Vanderbilt
#24 Oklahoma d. West Virginia
#25 LSU d. Texas A&M

Air Force d. Utah State
Appalachian State d. Georgia State
Arizona State d. Arizona
Boise State d. Fresno State
Boston College d. Syracuse
Charlotte d. Florida Atlantic
Cincinnati d. Connecticut
Hawaii d. BYU
Idaho d. NM State
INDIANA d. PURDUE
Louisiana d. Georgia Southern
Louisiana Tech d. UTSA
Memphis d. East Carolina
MICHIGAN STATE d. RUTGERS
NC State d. North Carolina
Nevada d. UNLV
Old Dominion d. Middle Tennessee
Oregon d. Oregon State
Rice d. North Texas
SMU d. Tulane
Southern Miss d. Marshall
Tulsa d. Temple
UAB d. UTEP
UL Monroe d. Arkansas State
Wake Forest d. Duke
Wyoming d. San Jose State

[medinabuckeye1]

WEEK 13
Saturday, November 25
ESPN College Gameday, live from Auburn, AL
#18 Auburn 24, #1 Alabama 23
#12 MICHIGAN d. #2 OHIO STATE

It is interesting that I think Alabama's loss is MUCH more devastating than Ohio State's.  The CG's based on these predictions:
ACC:
Miami (11-1) v Florida State (9-3)


Big12:
Oklahoma State (12-0) v Kansas State (10-2)


B1G:
Ohio State (11-1) v Wisconsin (12-0)


Pac12:
Stanford (11-1) v Colorado (11-1)


SEC:
Florida (11-1) v Auburn (10-2)

[medinabuckeye1]

Playoff spots:
IMHO, the surest bets are the potential undefeated P5 Champions:

• If Wisconsin wins the B1GCG they finish 13-0 and obviously in. 
• If OkSU wins the B12CG they finish 13-0 and obviously in. 

The next best bets are the potential 1-loss P5 Champions:

• If Miami wins the ACCCG they are 12-1
• If Ohio State wins the B1GCG they are 12-1 (this would also prevent Wisconsin from finishing 13-0)
• The Stanford/Colorado winner will be 12-1
• If Florida wins the SECCG they are 12-1

Because Ohio State and Wisconsin play each other, only five of those six things can happen.  However, five is one more than the four available playoff spots so there is still a possibility that a 12-1 P5 Champion could be left out. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Medina's theory of what happens if we do end up with five undefeated or one-loss P5 Champions:


First, in order for this to happen:

• OkSU needs to beat KSU in the B12CG, and
• Miami needs to beat FSU in the ACCCG, and
• Florida needs to beat Auburn in the SECCG

Second, I am further assuming that Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the B1GCG.  The reason for this assumption is simply because it makes the question more interesting.  A 13-0 Wisconsin is in no questions asked.  A 12-1 Ohio State is in the discussion. 


Thus, the P5 Champions would be:

• ACC:  12-1 Miami
• B12:  13-0 Oklahoma State
• B1G:  12-1 Ohio State
• Pac12:  12-1 either Colorado or Stanford
• SEC:  12-1 Florida

IMHO, OkSU is obviously in.  They have a relatively weak OOC, but they are the only undefeated team. 


That leaves four 12-1 P5 Champions for three spots.  IMHO, the team left out would be either Colorado or Miami and I'm basing that almost solely on OOC SoS:

• Miami's OOC is Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas State, Toledo
• Ohio State's is UNLV, Army, Oklahoma
• Colorado's is Colorado State, Texas State, Northern Colorado
• Stanford's is Rice, SDSU, Notre Dame
• Florida's is UAB, Northern Colorado, Michigan

Ohio State (Oklahoma), Florida (Michigan), and Stanford (Notre Dame) each have one reasonably respectable OOC opponent.  Miami and Colorado do not.