ELA 130 Team Countdown

[FearlessF]

well, to finish in the top 20, a team can only afford 4 losses

[Brutus Buckeye]

Iowa gets their tight ends from a cyborg factory. '

[FearlessF]

got Noah from Omaha

I blame ex-Coach Riley

[Hawkinole]

ELA, nice write-up on Iowa. They will be weak in linebacking, having graduated all three starters. The secondary lost the best CB in the Big Ten, but more are in the bin, including a couple guys who have started. Manny Rugamba (Jr.), started some last year but lost his starting job; he played quite a bit as a freshman, and he is very good. But Rugamba is listed in the Spring 2-deeps as 2nd team to Michael Ojemudia, who also has starting experience at CB. And Matt Hankins is at the other CB. The secondary is strong. The D-Line looks strong.
Iowa's reserve RBs from last year are pretty good. I just don't trust the offensive line, and you didn't write about the O-Line, and it is nothing to write about. There are reports of speed at WR, and we have not read about speed in that group at Iowa in years.
As I see it the defense will be as good as any in the Big Ten, and the offense will not be in "ultimate driving machine" mode, unless they solve O-Line issues. The O-Line issues are more troubling because although the QB has a strong arm, and quick release, he is also immobile.
I would be more comfortable ranking Iowa about 30-32. But they could win the West. Most likely Iowa finishes 2nd to Wisconsin in the West.

[fezzador]

I'm actually optimistic about the tackles.  I think Wirfs and Jackson will shine this season.  The Paulsen boys may end up being pretty good at RG.  Jury's still out on LG and (especially) C though - seniors start at both positions, but they're first-time starters.  I'd feel much better if J. Daniels came back for one last go-around.  Ike and Boone were serviceable and solid starters, but they weren't killers like Bulaga or Gallery.

[ELA]

19. Northwestern Wildcats

#6 in Big Ten

There are four teams in my Top 20 who didn't lose a player early to the NFL Draft.  Three of them are Big Ten schools, starting with Northwestern, which is a big reason I'm bullish on the conference following up a fantastic bowl season, with their best overall season in close to two decades.  First things first, the Wildcats need to make sure a key returning piece is returning 100%, in starting quarterback Clayton Thorson.  Thorson is being listed in some places as a top 5 overall pick in the NFL Draft next year, but after suffering a torn ACL in the Wildcats' Music City Bowl win over Kentucky, it's unclear exactly when he'll be ready to start 2018.  He'll be needed with the graduation of Justin Jackson, perhaps the most underappreciated football player in Big Ten history.  Jackson wound up his career last year with 5,440 rushing yards, #11 in NCAA history, and 2nd in Big Ten history.  You might win some bar bets with the question of the 2nd leading rusher in Big Ten history.  But aside from Jackson, there is returning talent all around, starting with 4 offensive linemen, and the two leading receivers from an offense that finished fourth in the conference in both scoring offense and total offense.  They add Solomon Vault back into the mix as well after missing all of 2017 with an injury.  Vault had 190 yards of offense in 2016, but more importantly he has 4 career return touchdowns, and has twice been named all-Big Ten as a returner.  He relieves a lot of field position issues after Northwestern had the fewest kick return yards a year ago, and finished in the bottom half in punt return yardage too.  Jackson's replacement, rising sophomore Jeremy Larkin, looks like another star in the making, actually rushing for more yards per carry than Jackson.  He really came on late last season, rushing for 329 yards over the Wildcats' final five games (including the bowl), on a whopping 9.7 ypc.  That's on 34 carries, so while it's not a massive sample size, it's not insignificant either.  Defensively, the front seven looks to be very good, led by Paddy Fisher who stepped in as quarterback of the defense as just a redshirt freshman a season ago, and wound up being named second team all-Big Ten.  Joined by Nate Hall to his outside, with Joe Gaziano and Sam Miller as the ends up front, Northwestern should be able to put relentless pressure up front.  They'll have to because the secondary is far from as certain.  Northwestern gave up a league worst 250 ypg through the air last season, but were also picked on the most.  Montre Hartage benefited from teams throwing away from Kyle Queiro last year, but now he is the most experienced player in the back end, and needs to be a lot better.  The development of the secondary will determine if the defense is an overall plus or not, the front seven looks plenty fine.  But really it all comes down to the health of Thorson.  Jackson can be replaced, as weird as that sounds, if Larkin is what he looks like, and they have a top 5 NFL Draft pick at quarterback.  But few schools, let alone Northwestern could take the hit of losing both Jackson and Thorson and be ok.
Key Players

QB		Clayton Thorson, Senior
G		Tommy Doles, Senior
K		Charlie Kuhbander, Sophomore
	.
DE		Joe Gaziano, Junior
LB		Paddy Fisher, Senior
LB		Nate Hall, Senior

[Hawkinole]

I agree with you about it coming down to Thorson. But if he does start, which I think is likely, after a couple games are played, will he truly be ready? 

I hate to see a senior put in this position to play his final season and possibly still be recovering from and injury, which makes re-injury, more likely.

[TyphonInc]

How last season ended, based on average composite computer ranking

1. ACC - Atlantic (32.571)
2. SEC - West (35.000)
3. Big Ten - East (39.857)
4. Big XII (47.000)
5. Big Ten - West (48.000)
6. Pac 12 - North (50.333)
7. ACC - Coastal (50.714)
8. Pac 12 - South (51.833)
9. SEC - East (54.571)

The bane of the B1G, it seems like for every excellent team, there is a basement dweller dragging that ranking down. Did any division have 4 teams ranked higher than the B1G East? And did any division have 3 teams so low? Smash that together you get an above average ranking
Whoever wins the East, and if they can survive the Wisconsin Invitational, are prolly worthy of playoff bid.
I still have trouble grasping how the ACC Atlantic is so good. Clemson, FSU, and Lamar Jackson are all great, but what else?

[FearlessF]

the SEC east is horrid

[bamajoe]

Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech are all solid teams and the author of this thread thinks BC is good. The ACC is more than Clemson. FSU, and Louisville.

[Cincydawg]

The SEC East has two top 20 teams, which is not horrid.  The other 5 teams, though, ....

Maybe Florida is OK?

[FearlessF]

5. Big Ten - West (48.000)
6. Pac 12 - North (50.333)
7. ACC - Coastal (50.714)
8. Pac 12 - South (51.833)
9. SEC - East (54.571)

well, looking at the numbers:  not only are they last, but almost a 3 point drop below the PAC 12 south

[CatsbyAZ]

Other than Georgia, what other SEC East Team doesn't have substantial flaws? Maybe South Carolina is well rounded? Nothing horrible, but nothing great. To remember when the SEC East was undoubtedly the toughest division with Florida and Tennessee living in the Top 5 every year...

[Entropy]

got Noah from Omaha

I blame ex-Coach Riley

I'll blame Riley for a lot.. but in this case, he never wanted to go to UNL.   For whatever reason, he had limited interest.  So did his dad..