ELA 130 Team Countdown

[Cincydawg]

Not a good summary for LSU at all.

I should say it is a good analysis but not good for LSU.

[Brutus Buckeye]

So Ela's top 40 will officially have twice as many Acc teams as Sec teams. Ten to five. 

[bamajoe]

The idea that ten ACC teams including such stalwarts as Wake Forest, Syracuse, Duke, BC, and Virginia are better than LSU challenges credulity. LSU may be down and is no longer a challenger for the SEC West, they are still loaded from a personnel stand point and should be around 20th place. They did lose their bowl game to Notre Dame thanks to a miracle play at the end, but they were competitive and they did beat Auburn. They should be much higher than 40.

[847badgerfan]

They lost a ton of playmakers, are entertaining a transfer QB (not Russell Wilson), they ran off a top offensive coordinator and they have a doofus head coach. 

The main positive is Dave Aranda.

40 might be generous.

[Cincydawg]

So, LSU will be an interesting team to watch this year, coupled with the fact the Dawgs face them in Red Stick.

Purdue will be interesting and perhaps WVU merits some attention.  Some teams I think appear to have a very wide margin of possible outcomes, low predictability, perhaps.  Michigan is also interesting for somewhat different reasons as they have a tough slate and COULD lose 5 games again.

Alabama is the most boring team out there.

[ELA]

The idea that ten ACC teams including such stalwarts as Wake Forest, Syracuse, Duke, BC, and Virginia are better than LSU challenges credulity. LSU may be down and is no longer a challenger for the SEC West, they are still loaded from a personnel stand point and should be around 20th place. They did lose their bowl game to Notre Dame thanks to a miracle play at the end, but they were competitive and they did beat Auburn. They should be much higher than 40.

Syracuse was #55 and Virginia was #69

[ELA]

40. Washington State Cougars

#6 in Pac 12

After a 12-25 start to his career on the Palouse, the Washington State brass was awarded for their patience as Mike Leach went 26-13 over his past three years, including 19-8 in conference play.  That ties a school record for conference wins over a 3 year period, and is only the second time they've had three straight winning Pac 8/10/12 seasons.  That said, Cougar fans can't help but feeling a little empty after last year.  Coming off a Friday night win over #5 USC, and a blowout win over Oregon in Eugene, Washington State reached #8 in the rankings, before a stunning home blowout loss to Cal, followed two weeks later by a blowout loss to Arizona.  So they picked up wins over ranked teams in USC and Stanford, beat Boise State, beat Oregon and Utah on the road.  But those two upset losses to Cal and Arizona derailed the season.  Losing to Washington and Michigan State is entirely forgivable.  Now it's time to rebuild.  The fact that I have Washington State still in the top 40 in a rebuild year tells you where Leach has elevated this program to.  They knew all along they were going to lose Luke Falk to graduation, but losing three players early to the NFL Draft was a surprise, and something that you don't plan around at schools like Washington State.  Something no program can plan around is what happened during the offseason when presumed starting quarterback Tyler Hilinsky took his own life.  It feels callous to even attempt to discuss that from a football angle, but that's what this is, so that's what I'll try to do.  Falk was going to be tough to replace, but he had his faults, he was way too turnover prone, particularly for a 5th year senior.  He was benched on two separate occasions for Hilinski, who also started the bowl game.  So while there was probably going to be a dropoff, on at least two separate occasions Leach thought last year that Hilinski may be the better option.  So the Falk graduation was looking like maybe a wash.  Now the quarterback position is in flux.  The fortunate thing is by this point lots of quarterbacks would like to play for Mike Leach.  He added Gardner Minshew as a grad transfer from East Carolina, who was down to Washington State or Alabama.  He also has 4* Cammon Cooper coming in, although in a rare twist for high profile quarterback recruits, particularly ones with a great shot at winning the job right away, Cooper did not enroll early.  He didn't turn down offers from schools like Georgia, Tennessee and Louisville to go sit on the bench in Pullman though.  Whatever quarterback "competition" occurred in the spring felt fake, the two best quarterbacks on the roster won't be there until the fall.  So while they lack experience in the system, there's actually a chance LEach will have two quarterbacks on the roster more talented than the two he lost.  Ideally Minshew wins the job and Cooper gets some seasoning and takes over in 2019.  Whoever gets the job has a ton of weapons to work with.  Losing top receiver Tavares Martin to the draft hurts a bit, but the air raid offense, maybe aside from one year with Michael Crabtree, is always going to spread the ball around, and the Cougars return six players who had over 300 receiving yards a year ago.  While the season ending thuds against Washington and Michigan State were disappointing, they may have found a new stud receiver in rising sophomore Tay Martin, who had 12 catches for 121 yards and 3 touchdown over the two games.  
Key Players

RB		James Williams, Junior
WR		Kyle Sweet, Senior
T		Andre Dillard, Senior
	.
LB		Jahad Woods, Sophomore
LB		Jalen Thompson, Junior
S		Hunter Dale, Senior

[TyphonInc]

They lost a ton of playmakers, are entertaining a transfer QB (not Russell Wilson), they ran off a top offensive coordinator and they have a doofus head coach.

The main positive is Dave Aranda.

40 might be generous.

eSECpn has LSU preseason hyped at 18. But on their FPI they have them slated to lose 6 games.
Projected losses: (N)Miami, @Auburn, @Florida, Georgia, Miss St, Alabama, & @Texas A&M
Projected wins: Southeastern Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, @Ark, & Rice
Seems like top 20 material to me. 

[bamajoe]

To start with they could lose all those games and finish 6-6, which they haven't done in 20 years, and there still will not be ten ACC teams better than them. That is ridiculous. I seriously doubt they will lose to Miami and Texas A&M hasn't beaten LSU since they joined the conference. Mississippi State and Florida are toss ups. I am not so hung up on the final record which I think will be 7-5 or 8-4, but the asininity that teams like Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Duke are better when LSU has more and better athletes at virtually every position.

[ELA]

To start with they could lose all those games and finish 6-6, which they haven't done in 20 years, and there still will not be ten ACC teams better than them. That is ridiculous. I seriously doubt they will lose to Miami and Texas A&M hasn't beaten LSU since they joined the conference. Mississippi State and Florida are toss ups. I am not so hung up on the final record which I think will be 7-5 or 8-4, but the asininity that teams like Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Duke are better when LSU has more and better athletes at virtually every position.

That makes three teams you have now named that I don't actually have ahead of them

[CatsbyAZ]

To start with they could lose all those games and finish 6-6, which they haven't done in 20 years, and there still will not be ten ACC teams better than them. That is ridiculous. I seriously doubt they will lose to Miami and Texas A&M hasn't beaten LSU since they joined the conference. Mississippi State and Florida are toss ups. I am not so hung up on the final record which I think will be 7-5 or 8-4, but the asininity that teams like Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Duke are better when LSU has more and better athletes at virtually every position.

It's likely LSU is worse than even projected here. Their heavy personnel losses can be overlooked to a point, because LSU holds such strong tendency to reload no matter what, but I have zero faith in the current coaching staff. And I predict Miami will handle them easy enough on mainly their coaching advantage.

[ELA]

They added Joe Burrow today.  So at least they have a QB now.  Maybe one day they'll start a QB who isn't a Big Ten backup, but I guess they are sticking with that strategy.

[Cincydawg]

Is Burrow a grad transfer?

He probably could help them if he is, I suspect, relative to the alternatives.

It is interesting how they can go so long without a decent QB.

[Brutus Buckeye]

A grad transfer with two years of eligibility.