ELA 130 Team Countdown

[Cincydawg]

Michigan is in a LOT better shape than UF or Tenn.  Tenn is a mess, and UF needs a QB.  I think UF might be an 8-5 kind of team.  They are not bereft of talent, they just need to beat the teams less talented than they are.

Tenn has systemic issues I think, which will take a couple of years to correct.  Both programs have "wasted talent".

Mizzou could be an interesting team in 2018.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

Michigan is in a LOT better shape than UF or Tenn.  I think UF might be an 8-5 kind of team.  

Didn't Michigan go 8-5 last year? 

[FearlessF]

but, Michigan is a LOT better this year

they have a QB

[ELA]

Didn't Michigan go 8-5 last year?

Yes, and Florida went 4-7.  So Florida needs a 4 game improvement just to reach the level of Michigan's disappointing 2017.  If Michigan also has a 4 game improvement, they'll be in really good shape.

[Brutus Buckeye]

but, Michigan is a LOT better this year

they have a QB

.

I don't edit the rankings once I finalize them, because it leads to too many inconsistencies, so no.

.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Yes, and Florida went 4-7.  So Florida needs a 4 game improvement just to reach the level of Michigan's disappointing 2017.  If Michigan also has a 4 game improvement, they'll be in really good shape.

A four game improvement?
I suppose that they could win the bowl game this year, sure, but they have to play all four of the other teams that beat them; each of which has been much better than Michigan as of late.
MSU, PSU, OSU, Wisconsin... those are all teams that have been right on the doorstep of the playoffs, and have been TCB vs the Wolverines.
They might steal one of those four. Maybe even two. But three?
Toss in the fact that they'd also have to beat the Domers, and a four game improvement seems extremely improbable, imho.

[ELA]

A four game improvement?
I suppose that they could win the bowl game this year, sure, but they have to play all four of the other teams that beat them; each of which has been much better than Michigan as of late.
MSU, PSU, OSU, Wisconsin... those are all teams that have been right on the doorstep of the playoffs, and have been TCB vs the Wolverines.
They might steal one of those four. Maybe even two. But three?
Toss in the fact that they'd also have to beat the Domers, and a four game improvement seems extremely improbable, imho.

That's not the point.  He said Michigan is in better shape than Florida, and you said Michigan went 8-5 last year.  My only point was that Florida would need a 4 win improvement just to get to that level.  And then my Michigan example was that if Michigan improved by the amount Florida would have to just to be 2017 Michigan, then Michigan would be in really good shape.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Solid point. 

Florida had to cancel a game vs an FCS opponent, so that's one automatic win right there that they got hosed out of. 

The Gators also dropped a couple of WTF games, whereas Michigan won all of the games that they were supposed to win, and lost to all of the teams that were better. 

Of course Michigan beat Florida pretty bad when they played each other on a neutral field. So that would probably be the most sound Michigan > Florida argument available at present. 
(Even though they both got beat by the Gamecocks by similar margins, late in the season) 

[ELA]

50. South Florida Bulls

#3 in American

The only thing more sickening than not fulfilling expectations was watching rival Central Florida have their magical 2017 run.  That was supposed to be the Bulls up there.  A senior laden team, coming off an 11-2 season, the program's first ever finish in the AP Top 25, and a preseason #19 ranking to open 2017.  While a 10-2 season, with another Top 25 finish wasn't a total bust, it felt like everything was supposed to come together last year, and not only didn't it, it did for their biggest rivals, and now South Florida enters a rebuilding cycle after 9 of the 10 players who garnered some measure of postseason all-conference honors having graduated.  Their starting quarterback, three leading rushers, and leading receiver are all gone.  It's on a pair of receivers to carry the offense, if they can figure out who will throw them the ball.  Tyre McCants is the more proven of the two, but Darnell Salomon may have the biggest upside.  After having a combined 7 catches for 100 yards over his first season and a half of eligibility, Salomon took off over the second half of last season, with 26 catches for 373 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He was remarkably steady, with multiple catches every week, including at least 4 in five of seven games, and had over 40 yards each week, including a 139 yard explosion, capped by an 83 yard touchdown, against Central Florida.  The answer at quarterback may be grad transfer Blake Barnett.  He has a blue chip pedigree, but after not being able to win the starting job at Alabama or Arizona State, he's now on his third school.  At some point his starz are just a distant memory.  The situation under center after the graduation of Quinton Flowers is dire enough, that Bulls fans have to hope he can reclaim his Friday night glory.  While the South Florida offense was no slouch, it was on the defensive side of the ball where the Bulls really stood out, and where there is probably more cause for concern.  The turnaround on the side of the ball in Year 1 under Charlie Strong was remarkable.  South Florida went from dead last in the conference in 2016, allowing 482 ypg, to best in the conference in 2017, allowing just under 360 ypg.  Six starters, including all of the leaders, have moved on, so Strong will have another tough task ahead of him in Year 2.  South Florida should still be able to recruit at a higher level than any other school in the conference, save maybe give or take a Houston.  So the talent is still too high to expect a massive drop.  But it is going to be rocky as the core of what built the best two year run in program history, all moves on.  The Bulls miss Memphis and Navy as crossovers, and so still could well be in a position to control their own destiny when they host Central Florida in the season finale.  By that point, some of the younger talent may look much different than it will in September.
Key Players

WR		Tyre McCants, Senior
WR		Darnell Salomon, Junior
T		Marcus Norman, Junior
	.
LB		Nico Sawtelle, Junior
LB		Greg Reaves, Junior
CB		Ronnie Hoggins, Senior

[847badgerfan]

but, Michigan is a LOT better this year

they have a QB

As they do every year. Development has been the issue. Plenty of 4* talent in the house.

[FearlessF]

plenty of hype in the house every year

[ELA]

49. Kentucky Wildcats

#9 in SEC

Kentucky was 3-0, coming off a road win at South Carolina, and had Florida beat, to both slaughter their demon, and take control of the SEC East.  They inexplicably (aside from the fact that they simply cannot beat Florida ever) squandered that game, but won their next two to set themselves up for an easy stretch.  A blowout loss to Mississippi State and an upset loss to Ole Miss, as part of a 2-5 finish, culminating is a bowl loss to Northwestern, who was without their starting quarterback, seems to sum up Kentucky football.  To take the next step in 2018, they'll have to win a way that the Wildcats are not accustomed to, with defense and the running game.  The passing game was completely gutted, but the makings are there for the running game to be among the best in the SEC, if not the country.  Benny Snell is the leading returning rusher in the SEC, after putting up 1,318 yards a season ago.  He really turned it on late, averaging 155.4 ypg on 6.3 ypc over Kentucky's final five regular season games, being 4 SEC games, plus Louisville.  He gets to work behind an offensive line that spent the first half of last season shuffling guys around, and experimenting with underclassmen, but now returns four starters.  Snell was injured in the bowl game, and they don't want to repeat last season, where he was 9th in the nation in carries, with no other back getting more than 5.5 carries per game.  They may have found their answer in the spring game in sophomore A.J. Rose, who was the star, with 134 yards on 11 carries and 3 touchdowns.  If he can be a real 2nd option to Snell, Kentucky may be able to get away with a limited passing attack.  If nothing else they are probably the best running ROOMMATE tandem in the nation.  It's whether the defense can rise to the occasion which is more uncertain.  The Wildcats planned on returning 10 starters, but then Denzil Ware, who was 2nd on the team in both sacks and tackles for loss, shocked the coaches by announcing he would be transferring for his senior season.  Ware was suspended for an unspecified violation of team rules for the bowl game, but had been fully reinstated in the spring.  He has not yet announced a destination.  Beyond that, it's a defense that finished 12th in the SEC in total defense, 13th per play, and seemed to get worse as the season progressed.  They gave up 37 or more points 4 times in their final 6 games, their best performance over the second half being holding a terrible Vanderbilt team to "only" 21 points.  With some experience, they should be better, but how much?  And as good as Kentucky's running game could be, it's questionable whether they can do anything to prevent loaded SEC defenses from loading up the box.  Another 7-5ish season, with a mid tier bowl seems to be their destiny. 
Key Players

RB		Benny Snell, Junior
T		George Asafo-Adjei, Senior
T		Landon Young, Junior
	.
LB		Josh Allen, Senior
S		Mike Edwards, Senior
S		Darius West, Senior

[CatsbyAZ]

Great write up on UK. Seeing Mark Stoops coach reminds me a lot of his brother's time with the other Wildcat program in Tucson. Both recruit above the tradition of their program, or at least start their tenures that way, and both exercise a lot creativity in rounding out a roster with transfers and a coaching staff with purely Xs&Os talents, but something is always amiss and keeps them from breaking through. Granted Georgia turned out to be REALLY good, but last year was the year for UK to really break through with the type of 9-3 or 10-2 season they've been waiting for but they couldn't get out of their own way. 8-4/7-5 is about the best Mike could consistently do in Tucson and signs don't point to it being any better for Mark.

[Cincydawg]

When Florida goes 4-7, it's pretty singular, but then Tenn went 4-8 (0-8), which was unprecedented.

And yeah, a 4-7 team has more issues than an 8-5 team as a very general statement.  Florida should be back to some level in another year though.

Just trying to be specific.