ELA 130 Team Countdown

[Cincydawg]

The programs that could do better IMHO are Illinois, UNC, UVA, and Washington.  And yes, I know UDubb HAS done better.

I have concluded that coaching is important.  DUH.

Those first three are flagship schools in major states with populations sufficient to support the football program, at least to be DECENT.

A good coach at any of those three could at least approach what UDubb has managed, 8-9 win seasons anyway.

[TyphonInc]

Is UVA really the State Flagship School? It's a smaller elite public school. Tech is the BIG state school.
Same arguemnet in North Carolina. As an Outsider, I think UNC is; but taking 2 trips a year to NC, almost universally the resident say NC State is the flagship.

Illinois definitely is. I would also assert Washington is at least a step ahead of WSU in terms of State Flagship.

EDIT: Reading up on Flagship Universities, only University of Buffalo and Rutgers are flagships that don't contain the States Name.

[Cincydawg]

Usually, the "University of State" is the flagship, Ohio State being an obvious exception with LSU, Penn State, and Boise State.

It's not a term decided by enrollment.  These are programs that to me should be much better, and COULD be much better with a good coach.

I hear that Illinois just doesn't care about football, which is fine.  But Wisconsin does, and whatever Wisconsin "State" is is a forgotten team in foosball.

NC State is a kind of engineering school, sort of, but I could be biased.  They aren't near the academic tier of UNC.

Clemson is arguably the flagship of SC I would think, even academically.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Usually, the "University of State" is the flagship, Ohio State being an obvious exception with LSU, Penn State, and Boise State.

I'd argue that Purdue and Indiana are co-flagship schools, by design. The state has very deliberately split the emphasis of each university so that they are both the flagships within the state within their individual expertise. 

[ELA]

68. Temple Owls

#6 in American

Nobody wants to be the guy who follows the guy.  Yes, Matt Rhule was only at Temple for four seasons, but in those third and fourth seasons he guided the Owls to back to back 10 win seasons, back to back Conference Championship Game appearances, back to back bowl births, back to back season reaching the AP Top 25, and a 2016 conference title.  That may be a small window, but for a program that had only been to 4 bowls in program history, one of which was when Pop Warner was coaching them, and has only finished ranked once, 40 years ago, that was rarefied air.  But Geoff Collins got off to a particularly rough start, with a 3-5 start.  Then, starting quarterback Logan Marchi was lost for the season, and backup Frank Nutile took over, guiding the Owls to a 4-1 finish, with an improved completion percentage, yards per pass average, TD:INT ratio and QBR.  It's not like Nutile was some young gun who proved his worth, he was a fourth year player in the system, who had thrown only 5 career passes prior to 2017.  The difference was so drastic though that Marchi transferred to FCS Tennessee State rather than compete for his job back.  It might be unfair to Marchi to put everything on the quarterback change though.  In his final two games before injury, Marchi had his two best games, his two 300 yard games, and his two 60%+ completion percentage performances.  So it seems like maybe the team was just about to turn a corner anyway.  The offense isn't going anywhere without a drastically improved running game.  That was supposed to be a strength after Ryquell Armstead announced his presence as a sophomore in 2016, running for 919 yards on 5.9 ypc.  He was totally ineffective last year though, his ypc dropping by 2 full yards.  He didn't even lead the team in rushing.  That went to David Hood, who was slightly better, but not much.  The most effective runner was wideout Isaiah Wright, who had 1 carry total over the first four games, but got over 2 carries per game the rest of the way, averaging 7.5 ypc.  He was also third on the team in receiving, but with the graduations of both Adonis Jennings and Keith Kirkwood, Nutile needs him as a target.  Everything will be eased if Ventell Bryant can shake his 2017 funk.  Bryant led the team with 54 catches for 895 yards in 2016, but disappeared to 29 for 280 last year, and never found the end zone.  That's made even worse by his 7 catch, 79 yard performance in his first game against Villanova, meaning 22 for 201 the rest of the way.  He had almost that much in one game in 2016, with 168 yards against Tulane.  Defensively Temple fed off their pass rush.  The Owls led the conference, averaging 3 sacks per game, on the strength of three players finishing with 7 or more sacks on the season.  No other team in the conference had three players even reach five, and USF was the only team to have two players do so.  The problem now is the only one returning in Quincy Roche.  Roche, as a redshirt freshman last year benefited from rotating in for Sharif Finch and Jacob Martin, two all-conference players.  Now it's all him, and he has to prove he can handle both the workload, and the duties of an every down player.
Key Players

QB		Frank Nutile, Senior
WR		Isaiah Wright, Junior
C		Matt Hennessey, Sophomore
	.
DE		Quincy Roche, Sophomore
LB		Shaun Bradley, Junior
S		Delvon Randall, Senior

[ELA]

67. Indiana Hoosiers

#12 in Big Ten

Coming off of their first back-to-back bowl trips since 1990 and 1991, Indiana was finally getting some football buzz, until Kevin Wilson went and got himself fired.  The thought was that the Hoosiers could still compete in 2017, and they showed it in spurts.  They got blown out by Penn State and Wisconsin, but gave Ohio State all they wanted, but had a three game heartwrenching losing streak midseason to Michigan (in overtime), to Michigan State by 8 (in a game they led by 6 with 6 minutes left) and to Maryland by 3 (in a game they led in the 4th quarter).  They also lost a one score game to rival Purdue.  But the other side of that is aside from a solid road win at Virginia, their other 4 wins were against Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, Illinois and Rutgers.  Indiana had two competent quarterbacks, but seemed to hold each back by flipping back and forth.  Lagow had the better arm, but made bad decisions.  The freshman, Peyton Ramsey, made better decisions, and was a threat with his legs that Lagow wasn't, but also struggled to stretch the field vertically.  The graduation of Lagow should have meant the QB drama left with him, but instead Indiana decided to add grad transfer Brandon Dawkins from Arizona.  Dawkins was the starter is Tucson for all of 2016, and the beginning of 2017, before losing his job to freshman Khalil Tate.  I doubt Dawkins gave up being the backup in Tucson just to be the backup in Bloomington, so here we go again.  Ramsey is competent with his legs.  Dawkins can be downright scary.  He has 12 career 70 yards rushing games and 4 100 yard games.  Granted this isn't the RichRod offense, but he does bring a different dynamic.  The Hoosiers were middle of the pack in the Big Ten last year in the major defensive statistical categories.  But forgive Hoosier fans if they believe that is reason to gloat after fielding annually one of the most inept defenses in the Big Ten.  You put that simply adequate 2017 defense with some of the offenses Indiana rolled out over the past decade, and you may have had a Big Ten title contender.  The trouble now is that the defense was absolutely ravaged by graduations.  Only three starters return.  Six of the top 8 tacklers, gone.  Three of the four leaders in sacks, gone.  Jonathan Crawford's lone interception accounts for all of the interceptions among returning players.  Hoosier fans better hope 2017 was Xs and Os, and not Jimmys and Joes, or they could be in big trouble.
Key Players

QB		Peyton Ramsey, Sophomore
WR		Luke Timian, Senior
G		Wes Martin, Senior
	.
DT		Jacob Robinson, Senior
S		Jonathan Crawford, Senior
P		Haydon Whitehead, Junior

[847badgerfan]

I hear that Illinois just doesn't care about football, which is fine.  But Wisconsin does, and whatever Wisconsin "State" is is a forgotten team in foosball.

UW and Wisconsin State merged a long while ago - early '70's I think.

It is now the Wisconsin System, period.

[ELA]

UW and Wisconsin State merged a long while ago - early '70's I think.

It is now the Wisconsin System, period.

There were some changed to the management of the UW system as a whole that were passed last year that were somewhat controversial right?  Obviously I didn't pay super close attention, but something about centralizing power?  I imagine is was a cost cutting/efficiency improving change that universities tend to try and fight against.

[ELA]

Saturday

66. UCLA Bruins

#10 in Pac 12

When UCLA hired Jim Mora Jr., they hoped they were getting their Pete Carroll.  A guy with an NFL pedigree, who had some success at that level, but not quite enough to stay employed.  Instead they got Al Groh.  A guy who recruited well, sold his NFL background, but never turned it into wins.  He had a solid stream of quarterbacks, but it never equalled wins.  Now they bring in an unequivocal NFL bust, but a guy with an unquestioned NCAA background (aside from the compliance side) in Chip Kelly.  Kelly is essentially starting from scratch, but that’s fine.  His offense particularly is completely different from what UCLA was running, so a bunch of returning starters would have been of little use anyway.  He also is a big enough name, and UCLA is desperate enough for success, he knows he’ll be given time to build his program.  Just how desperate is he for 2018 though?  He took a grad transfer from Wilton Speight.  He took a guy who wasn’t good enough to be the 2018 starter for a program who seems to be a quarterback away, and is putting him in a system that will be an even worse fit.  If Kelly can even get this team into a bowl game, he deserves coach of the year consideration, and if he does it, it will be due to the defense taking major strides forward.  A young group last year was awful, last in the Pac 12, surrendering 483 ypg, mostly because of terrible play in the front, allowing 287 rushing yards per game.  That was second worst in the nation.  The scary thing is the line was the one part of the defense last year that had some experience.  The one positive note is that cornerback Darnay Holmes showed as a freshman that he is going to be a special player.  The good feels from landing Kelly should hold Bruins fans over for 2018.  That’s good, because not much on the field is going to help there.
Key Players

RB		Soso Jamabo, Senior
RB		Bolu Olorunfunmi, Senior
K		J.J. Molson, Senior
	.
CB		Darnay Holmes, Senior
CB		Nate Meadors, Senior
S		Adarius Pickett, Senior

65. Tulane Green Wave

#5 in American

Willie Fritz brought the triple option from Georgia Southern to Tulane, and has watched steady improvement over his first two seasons.  The Green Wave lost a heartbreaker in the season finale a year ago, squandering a 4th quarter lead against SMU that cost them bowl eligibility, for a program that has only been to one bowl game since 2002.  For 2018 just getting bowl eligible should be the floor.  Trusting his system, and bringing in the right guys to fit it, has left Fritz with 10 returning starters specifically recruited into the triple option system, that have spent two years learning it.  Just like we saw everything click last year offensively for Central Florida, I think the American will become just as frustrated with Fritz’s system this year, as they were with Frost’s last year.  So can Tulane run the table and claim a national title?  Well, they did go undefeated, and finish #7 in the polls in 1998, so it’s not totally unprecedented.  But, Central Florida has access to better talent, and they had a couple NFL guys on that defense.  Tulane’s defense could be their achilles heel.  Specifically, their defense against big plays.  The Green Wave had a middle of the road defense overall, and the best red zone defense in the American, both overall and in terms of touchdowns allowed.  45% of the touchdowns they allowed were outside the redzone, worst in the conference.  But that offense could be really fun to watch if it all comes together in Year 3.  Jonathan Banks seemed to really be starting to put it together at the end of last year, playing very well in Tulane’s final 3 games.  It’s not an offense that is going to be focused on the pass, but it doesn’t avoid the pass like Army or Navy does.  Banks had double digit carries in every game he was healthy, with over 20 twice.  But he also attempted at least 13 passes every game, and went over 30 once.  Terren Escalade is a weapon in the pass game, and could be as good as any receiver in the American.  So, no, don’t expect to see Tulane playing on New Years Day.  If for no other reason a killer early schedule that includes both Wake Forest and Ohio State, a de facto divisional championship game against Memphis,  plus a sneaky road trip to UAB, all before the calendar turns to October.  But Memphis can’t keep finding NFL quarterbacks, and that game is being played in New Orleans.  So playing in their first ever American Athletic Conference Championship is not a reach at all.
Key Players

QB		Jonathan Banks, Senior
WR		Terren Encalade, Senior
T		Tyler Johnson, Junior
	.
LB		Zachary Harris, Junior
CB		Donnie Lewis, Senior
S		Chase Kuerschen, Sophomore

[CatsbyAZ]

I've got high hopes for Chip Kelly at UCLA. There's enough raw talent on the roster that if they can get the fundamentals down, we can start seeing a newfound team by about mid season. Problem is the schedule down the stretch doesn't let up, as relatively unimpressive I expect the P12 to be this year.

[ELA]

64. North Texas Mean Green

#2 in Conference USA

Lost in the story of Lane Kiffin finding success again, and Florida Atlantic running roughshod over Conference USA was the story of who they beat in the conference championship game.  North Texas found some success in the early part of this century, winning three straight Sun Belt Conference championships from 2001-04.  But since, they had only had one winning season, and certainly hadn’t won a division, let alone a conference title.  Seth Littrell came in after being associate head coach at North Carolina, and got the Mean Green into a bowl game in his first year, albeit at only 5-7, thanks to not enough teams being bowl eligible.  But the foundation was laid, although little more was expected than maybe sneaking into a bowl again in 2017.  Instead, the Mean Green were a year ahead of schedule, going 9-3 to reach the Conference USA championship game.  They lost to Florida Atlantic, who also handed them their lone regular season conference loss.  But either way, the season was a rousing success, with North Texas reaching that title game still featuring a starting lineup of mostly underclassmen.  Mason Fine was the top signal caller in the conference a year ago as only a sophomore.  The combination of him and wideout Jalen Guyton is the top pass catching combo in the conference.  The problem is the next step up seems massive.  They won all 7 conference games against opponents not named Florida Atlantic.  But they lost those two games against Florida Atlantic by a combined 62 points.  So North Texas could be improved, which I think they are, but all it might mean is that they’ve somewhat closed the gap between #2 and #1 in the conference.  Granted, any given Saturday, anything could happen.  So from North Texas’ perspective, just win the division, and see what happens from there.
Key Players

QB		Mason Fine, Junior
WR		Jalen Guyton, Junior
T		Jordan Murray, Senior
	.
NT		Roderick Young, Senior
LB		E.J. Ejiva, Senior
S		Khairi Muhammad, Junior

[Brutus Buckeye]

Did North Texas officially change their name from the Eagles to the Mean Green? Or is it like the Black Knights/Cadets thing?

[ELA]

Did North Texas officially change their name from the Eagles to the Mean Green? Or is it like the Black Knights/Cadets thing?

They officially switched from Eagles to Mean Green.  Not sure what you mean about the other.  Army also officially changed from Cadets to Black Knights.

[ELA]

63. Minnesota Golden Gophers

#11 in Big Ten

Rowing the boat is all well and good, but without a coxswain, it ain't going to work.  Demry Croft certainly had his rough spots as a freshman, but also showed flashes of how good he could be.  When he joined the growing number of players leaving the program (which happens in a coaching transition), it left Minnesota entering 2018 without a quarterback who had attempted a college pass.  That said, perhaps P.J. Fleck likes his options, because one of the moves during spring ball was to convert Seth Green (the most highly recruited quarterback on the Gophers' roster) out to either tight end or receiver.  That leaves redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan as the presumptive favorite, but don't rule out JUCO transfer Vic Viramontes or true freshman Zack Annexstad either.  Viramontes is an interesting option as a top rated dual threat JUCO recruit in 2018.  He also has three years of eligibility remaining.  But it was Morgan who got the bulk of the first team reps in the spring.  The best plan is to run Rodney Smith into the ground behind a line that returns three starters.  Smith struggled early to regain his 2017 form, early last year, but was rounding into form late, with 5 of his 6 best games coming in the second half of the season.  They need to make an effort to get him more involved in the passing game, as he had been his prior two seasons, and showed early in the spring game with a touchdown reception on the opening drive.  If getting their own running game going is helpful, slowing down the opposing run game is necessary.  The Gophers allowed 4.9 ypc last year, second worst in the Big Ten.  That was with a pair of seniors (including a likely NFL Draft pick in Steven Richardson) anchoring the middle of the defensive line.  Minnesota only returns three in the front seven, but a couple have a chance to be special.  Thomas Barber was the only Gopher player on either side of the ball to earn anything more than Honorable Mention All-Big Ten stuts from either the coaches or the media.  But it's Carter Coughlin who the coaches really think could be special.  He was moved from outside linebacker to defensive end, and led the team in sacks, but they are allowing him to move to move of a hybrid position this year, and play situationally with his hand on the ground.  On paper it good looks like a good move for a defense that should start 7 freshmen or sophomores, and as of now has no seniors in the two deep.  The little experience you have, you have to allow to make plays while the kids around them grow up.
Key Players

RB		Rodney Smith, Senior
WR		Tyler Johnson, Junior
K		Emmit Carpenter, Senior
	.
LB		Thomas Barber, Junior
LB		Carter Coughlin, Junior
S		Jacob Huff, Senior