ELA 130 Team Countdown

[ELA]

75. Wyoming Cowboys

#4 in Mountain West

People were probably too bullish on Wyoming last year, due solely to the presence of Josh Allen, and are probably too down on them now, solely due to his departure.  Craig Bohl is trying to build a roster in one of the most difficult places to do so, and based on the recruiting rankings, he’s struggling.  If the thought was that Josh Allen becoming a household name would help, so far it hasn’t.  But he and his staff should get credit for developing what should be another top half Mountain West team, with everyone’s recruiting scraps.  Allen was never returning for his fourth season, but aside from quarterback, this is the most solid roster in Laramie, since at least 1998, and maybe since Tiller’s final team in 1996.  But that hole at quarterback is gaping, for a team that was up and down a year ago.  They did nothing in any of the marquee games that were supposed to put Allen in the Heisman race, losing 24-3 to Iowa, 49-13 to Oregon and 24-14 to Boise State.  They even lost to the worst team in the conference (San Jose State), and were taken to overtime by the second worst (Hawaii).  But some of that was bad luck with Allen’s tenure peaking with a rebuilding roster, and leaving before it could materialize in 2018.  Defensively, the Cowboys have a chance to be outstanding.  They had the top scoring defense in the Mountain West a year ago, giving up only 17.5 ppg, and lose only 3 starters.  Four of their five first or second team All-Conference defensive players are back, giving them more top end defensive talent than anyone in the conference.  Andrew Wingard, who probably could have declared for the draft, instead returns, as easily the best defensive back in the conference, and could work is way into some national award discussions.  As odd as it sounds, replacing the most recognizable player in school history, the offense has a change to get better.  Aside from Allen, only a fullback and guard were lost from the starting lineup.  Particularly the running game has to improve, with four starters returning, after playing two freshmen and a sophomore a year ago.  While freshman Trey Woods led the team in rushing, the conference’s worst rushing attack picked up a tick when they shifted more carries to Kellen Overstreet.  Both backs return for 2018.
Key Players

RB		Kellen Overstreet, Junior
WR		Austin Conway, Junior
T		Zach Wallace, Senior
	.
DE		Carl Granderson, Senior
DT		Youhanna Ghaifan, Junior
S		Andrew Wingard, Senior

[CatsbyAZ]

The Pac South's MTZ teams are basically there for USC and UCLA to pad their records.
Even with a paper tiger USC and a really down UCLA, those two teams went a combined 6-2 against the rest of the division.
Now you have Chip Kelly at UCLA, while RichRod is out at Arizona, and ASU has hired Herman Edwards....
Sure one of the MTZ quadruplets is going to win one here and there, but that division is going to go to the USC-UCLA winner most years.

You're relying on UCLA's brand too much. They only won the division once under Mora Jr, despite fielding the talent to win every year. The MTZ collective did better than that. Good news is that I'm betting on big things from Chipsters.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Yeah, all of this is imo, obviously. 

Insofar as my rooting interests, I prefer all four MTZ teams over the LA twins. 

So I hope I am wrong. 

[ELA]

74. SMU Mustangs

#7 in American

SMU fans had to pump the brakes on what had all the makings of a potential special season when not just Courtland Sutton went pro early, as expected, but Trey Quinn also.  Sutton, at 6’4”, is a likely first round pick, while Quinn, who had the better numbers of the two last year, is more of a fourth to sixth round guy.  Not many programs can lose a receiving duo who combined for 182 catches, 2,321 yards and 25 touchdowns, let alone a year early.  It would have been fun to watch them in Sonny Dykes system this year, not that Chad Morris was three yards and a cloud of dust.  Dykes’ offense may be undergoing some tweaks though, and not be the full air raid he’s known for.  The Mustangs threw the ball 37.5 times per game last year.  Only East Carolina threw more.  But for his offensive coordinator hire, Dykes went with UConn offensive coordinator, and Gus Malzahn disciple, Rhett Lashlee.  Lashlee helped the UConn offense make major strides last year, but he certainly is not an air raid guy.  That may work well considering the turnover at the receiver spot.  SMU does return Xavier Jones, the 1,000 yard back you’ve never heard of, so this change may cater to the strengths of this roster.  But it’s not just Jones, the Mustangs have a full stable of running backs, if not quite the Pony Express.  Braeden West is the home run threat, with 568 yards on nearly 8 ypc, and Ke’Mon Freeman got himself 10 carries per game as only the #3 back.  Expect a lot more looks with two of those guys on the field together.  Quarterback Ben Hicks returns after a strong 2017, but may not be the starter in 2018.  Lashlee likes designed quarterback runs, and that is not what Hicks brings.  Backup D.J. Gillins might be the best option.  He lacks accuracy, but has a strong arm, and is far more athletic.  Remember he transfered from Wisconsin to SMU (stopping at a JUCO in between) after Chryst wanted to move him from quarterback to receiver.  While his skill set didn’t match what Chryst wanted to run, it’s nearly perfect for what Lashlee does.
Key Players

QB		Ben Hicks, Junior
RB		Xavier Jones, Junior
T		Chad Pursley, Senior
	.
LB		Kyran Mitchell, Senior
CB		Jordan Wyatt, Senior
S		Mikial Onu, Junior

73. Tennessee Volunteers

#13 in SEC

While all of the helmets (except Ohio State) have had their rough years in the last two decades at some point, perhaps none have had times as troubling as Tennessee.  While the Vols had been stuck in a quagmire of mediocrity for a decade, it may have finally bottomed out last year with a 4-8 season, that included going winless in SEC play.  It was the first 8 loss season in school history, and the first time they had gone winless in conference play since an 0-4 campaign in the SoCon in 1924.  If that wasn’t enough, the offseason was marred by perhaps the most bunked up coaching search in college football history.  Oddly, at the end of it, I think they got a good coach.  They got a coach that would not have caused anyone to bat an eye had he simply been hired in the first place.  Now it’s roster building time, and he more or less gets a fresh start.  The biggest stars from the problematic 2017 campaign are mostly gone, including three early NFL Draft departures.  The diamond they did discover was Trey Smith, who earned all-SEC honors as a true freshman at guard, before moving over to left tackle in November.  He’s only going to get better, and he’s still less than a year removed from being on a high school campus.  His ceiling is scary high, but a medical condition holding him out of spring practice has to be concerning.  The Vols went to freshman quarterback Jarrett Guarantano late, with an eye to the future.  He didn’t exactly dazzle, but it’s unclear who could potentially unseat him.  Quinten Dormady transferred, and Stanford transfer Keller Chryst will arrive for fall practice and put himself in the mix, but he’s coming being benched in favor of a freshman himself last season.  While overall Tennessee put together a shockingly good recruiting class, considering they went from November 12 until December 7 without a coach, pulling in the #20 class nationally, there isn’t a quarterback who looks capable of coming in and playing this year.  It’s on Pruitt to sell the program now, and the way the coaching search went, unfairly to him, it may take a minute, with the fair or unfair perception that the guy leading them was no better than their 27th choice.

QB		Jarrett Guarantano, Sophomore
WR		Brandon Johnson, Junior
T		Trey Smith, Sophomore
	.
DE		Darrell Taylor, Junior
LB		Daniel Bituli, Junior
S		Nigel Warrior, Junior

[CatsbyAZ]

I don't follow Tennnessee closely (though I'm planning on attending one of their road games this coming season) but they must have suffered a lot of transfers and non-quals under Botch Jones because there's no way their roster should be as underwhelming as it is. Vols recruited well under Jones: 2018 #20, 2017 #17, 2016 #14, 2015 #4, 2014 #7.

[Cincydawg]

Coaching was pretty bad at Tennessee.  Pruitt should be a significant upgrade given time.  They were 0-8 last season in the SEC, the first time the program had 8 losses.  It's inconceivable really.  My impression is that the team was running Jones more than the other way around, and the team was in factions.  And that got worse with each loss.

The Vols could win 6-7 this season and may not be quite this bad, but we'll see.  They did lose some talent early.

Their ability to recruit Georgia has diminished over time and that is a factor for their decline.  They had a 5 star OL who was a "legacy player" who flipped and went to UGA instead.  They also have Alabama as their "lock" in the SEC West.  

That program could be amidst a serious decline to being a 6-7-8 win kind of team with 9-10 being a special season.

[Cincydawg]

I don't follow Tennnessee closely (though I'm planning on attending one of their road games this coming season) but they must have suffered a lot of transfers and non-quals under Botch Jones because there's no way their roster should be as underwhelming as it is. Vols recruited well under Jones: 2018 #20, 2017 #17, 2016 #14, 2015 #4, 2014 #7.

Those recruiting numbers of course put them in the middle of the SEC.  That means you might expect a 4-4 conference record leading to an 8-4 or 7-5 overall record.  Pruitt has his work cut out clearly to reestablish a level of toughness lost.

[847badgerfan]

I knew Tennessee was in big trouble when they hired Jones. He's not an SEC-type coach and did not attempt to coach SEC Football.

He'd probably do **OK** on the West Coast for some teams, or maybe even in the XII, in the right situation. But not in the SEC, that's for sure. He just didn't (couldn't?) place enough emphasis on the big uglies, on both sides of the line. Think RichRod at Michigan. Very similar outcomes - not good ones.

Maybe Saban will rub off on him.

[Cincydawg]

Yup, you were negative on him from the start.  There were credible stories he let the team get away from him.

Pruitt won't let that happen.

[betarhoalphadelta]

I suppose Purdue should be happy it "missed" on Butch Jones, if not for who we ended up with... 

[ELA]

It was also the first time he took over a situation that hadn't been improved prior to his arrival.  You get a head job one of two ways (aside from retirements).  Either the previous coach did such a good job, he got a better one.  Or he did such a bad job he got fired and left a mess.  Butch got his first two jobs the former way.  Brian Kelly set up CMU for him; and Dantonio and Kelly set up Cincinnati for him.  It does take skill to keep something going, but he had never had to galvanize a broken team.  It's a different skill set.

[ELA]

Day late on Sunday, Monday will come later

72. Buffalo Bulls

#4 in MAC

Buffalo has been chasing the two year run Turner Gill had in 2007 and 2008 for a decade now, peaking with an 8-5 season in 2013, that included a home loss to Bowling Green in the season finale that prevented a trip to Detroit.  The Bulls have a chance to get back there in 2018, with a two deep littered with experience from a 6-6 team that was snubbed on a bowl invite.  While they lost 6 games, one was in 7 overtimes, two were by a point, one was by 4, and one was a 10 point road loss at Minnesota.  Really only a 10 point loss at Miami(Ohio) was a subpar performance.  They also beat Ohio in the season finale, to keep them from a division title, and were the final team to beat Lane Kiffin's Florida Atlantic, before the Owls ran off a 10 game winning streak, 9 of which were by more than 2 scores.  After a 2-10 season in 2016, that was worse than a 2-10 record would even indicate, Buffalo made a 50 spot leap in the S&P+ rankings, and that was despite a midseason quarterback injury, where they went 1-3.  Tyree Jackson is back, and has tons of experience around him, led by receiver Anthony Johnson.  Johnson led the MAC in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, despite only playing 12 games.  In per game average, he had over 20 yards more per game than the second best.  That combo was why Buffalo had the best passing attack in the MAC.  And that was with Jackson missing a third of the season.  If he plays in 12 games, they should easily surpass 300 passing yards per game.  In terms of returning production on the offensive side of the ball, the Bulls rank #21 in the country, best in the MAC other than Ball State, who was terrible on that side of the ball.  Buffalo was 3rd in the MAC in total offense last year, despite starting 5 freshmen at one point.  The defense was nearly as green, and what determine whether Buffalo simply gets to a bowl, or whether they can compete for a title may depend on that side of the ball.  Demone and Chuck Harris formed a hell of a pass rushing duo on the edges, but with Demone Harris moving on, potentially as an NFL pick, Chuck Harris needs to elevate his game.  Even with Demone opposite him, the Bulls only tallied 19 sacks a year ago.  That was a major reason Buffalo struggled in big plays in the back end, with only 8 interceptions, and ranking 9th in the conference in pass efficiency defense, surrendering the second highest completion percentage in the MAC.  Lance Leipold has no problem getting into a shootout with the passing game he's got.  Hell, his last game as a D3 coach before taking the Buffalo job was a 43-34 win in the national championship game.  But he needs to get teams off the field when the opportunity presents itself, and that's what Buffalo couldn't do last year.  The schedule is backloaded with the division deciding games against Akron and Ohio, plus the tough crossover game at Toledo all taking place over the second half of the season.  With all of that returning talent, there is a chance Buffalo could be 6-0 at the midpoint.  A road game at Rutgers is the toughest one in the front half.
Key Players

QB		Tyree Jackson, Junior
WR		Anthony Johnson, Senior
C		James O'Hagan, Junior
	.
DE		Chuck Harris, Senior
LB		Khalil Hodge, Senior
LB		Jordan Collier, Senior

[ELA]

71. Arkansas Razorbacks

#12 in SEC

Arkansas has been all over the place looking for an offensive identity over the past decade.  They had Houston Nutt, and brought in Gus Malzahn to do his thing, except he never really was allowed to do his thing, it was still Houston Nutt's thing.  So in comes Bobby Petrino and Ryan Mallett and they throw it around the field.  But they replace him with Bret Bielema, who wanted to establish his brand of running game.  Now that that didn't work they are back to throwing it around by hiring Chad Morris from SMU.  Not that he is a air raid type coach, but he is going to spread the field with the pass to open up the run.  SMU actually ran a very balanced offense, an offense that was top 10 in the nation last year.  But while Arkansas returns 9 starters on offense, he might as well be starting fresh as far as how those guys fit his system.  While he left before Clemson's first national title game appearance, he deserves some credit for designing an offense around DeShaun Watson.  The other thing Morris brings is a Texas pipeline.  Arkansas has been recruiting Texas since the old SWC days, and with it now part of the SEC footprint, it's tough to imagine winning the SEC West without being able to pluck some Texas kids.  Bielema had signed 5 combined over his final 2 classes from the state.  Morris is a Texas boy, who played at Texas A&M, coached high school football in the state for 16 seasons, and then spent the last three at SMU.  I'm sure he's more than ok with the annual game against his alma mater being played at Jerry World.  In Year 1, Pig fans probably just at least want some excitement on offense.  Bielema's style can be fun when it's running like it frequently did in Madison.  But when it's not...that motorcycle ride with an intern doesn't look so bad anymore.  While the injuries to quarterback Austin Allen and top receiver Jared Cornelius hurt last year, it does give Morris a good deal of experience to cobble a passing game together from.  Cole Kelley played in 9 games, starting 4, as a freshman, and has the leg up to be the starter going into the season.  At 6'7" and 270 pounds he can be tricky to defend, but it remains to be seen how he goes from a play action passer who can look over the top of the rush, to a running up and down the field hurry-up, no-huddle guy.  That experience from 2017 should at least help with the no huddle part.  While it's his job to lose, he was recruited by a different staff, using a different system.  All eight receivers or tight ends who had at least 6 receptions a year ago return.  That's the exact opposite of a year ago when the Razorbacks lost six of their top 7 pass catchers, and then lost the seventh (Cornelius) to a season ending injury in September.  Morris might use a fairly easy opening schedule to figure out roles he likes, because things get tough in a hurry, with Auburn and Alabama both in the first three SEC games.  Johnathan Nance was the most consistent option, but Jordan Jones showed he might have the most upside.  The new style should help an offensive line that struggled in protection a year ago, and that was with Frank Ragnow, one of the best centers in the country.  SMU quietly produced a 1,000 yard rusher a season ago too, so Devwah Whaley won't be forgotten.  He looked primed for a breakout 2017, but just never got it together.  It wasn't for lack of a chance, he led the team in carries, and after a midseason dog house stint, had 12 carries in five straight games to finish.  David Williams is gone, so it's his backfield, but a 4.4 ypc won't keep it his for long.
Key Players

WR		Jonathan Nance, Senior
T		Colton Jackson, Junior
K		Connor Limpert, Junior
	.
LB		De'Jon Harris, Junior
LB		Dre Greenlaw, Senior
S		Santos Ramirez, Senior

[Kris61]

It was also the first time he took over a situation that hadn't been improved prior to his arrival.  You get a head job one of two ways (aside from retirements).  Either the previous coach did such a good job, he got a better one.  Or he did such a bad job he got fired and left a mess.  Butch got his first two jobs the former way.  Brian Kelly set up CMU for him; and Dantonio and Kelly set up Cincinnati for him.  It does take skill to keep something going, but he had never had to galvanize a broken team.  It's a different skill set.

Yeah, but before last year it looked like he  had  galvanized the program.  Back to back 9 win seasons and ranked finishes for the first time in a decade.  I don’t know what happened last year but I seem to remember they had a rash of injuries as well.
I’m not surprised he got fired but that was a case where I would have liked to have seen the administration buck the trend of firing coaches and exercise a little more patience and stick with him another year. I think he would have produced more 9 win seasons than 4 win seasons there.