ELA 130 Team Countdown

[Brutus Buckeye]

So three levels of D1? 

Or are we merging the G5 with FCS in this hypothetical? 

[847badgerfan]

Need a different thread to continue the discussion so we don't poop all over this one...

[ELA]

First, Sunday

112. UNLV Rebels

#9 in Mountain West

If what you are looking for is progress, no matter how incremental, Tony Sanchez is delivering, taking over a team that won 2 games overall, and 1 in the Mountain West, and winning 3, then 4, then 5; including 2, then 3, then 4 in Mountain West play.  But that breakthrough seems elusive.  Going into the season finale last year, they were 5-6, just needing to beat 2-9 Nevada to get bowl eligible and likely make their first bowl trip since 2013, and only their second this millennium.  Instead they squandered a 13-9 3rd quarter lead, and lost 23-16, mustering a lone 2nd half field goal against the Mountain West Conference’s second worst scoring defense.  In sort of an odd twist UNLV added JUCO transfer QB Max Gilliam, who was formerly at Cal, giving UNLV two quarterbacks who at one time were simultaneously committed to Cal.  But it’s not Gilliam, but Armani Rogers who this team clearly belongs to.  The Mountain West Freshman of the Year certainly had his ups and downs, but if the bowl drought is going to end, it will be on his shoulders, and arm.  The key word there being arm.  Nobody doubts Rogers running ability.  He was 6th in the Mountain West last year with 78 rushing yards per game, with 148 against Air Force and 193 against New Mexico.  But much like Khalil Tate at Arizona, the next step in his development is forcing teams to respect his arm.  Nevada sold out against the run in the finale, and held him to only 49 yards on 23 carries.  He has to throw teams out of that defense this year.  Granted, between Rogers and tailback Lexington Thomas, the Rebels will have two of the three leading returning rushers in the conference, from a team that was 2nd in ypc a year ago.  So maybe they’ll just try and run teams to death.

Key Players

QB		Armani Rogers, Sophomore
RB		Lexington Thomas, Senior
T		Nathan Jacobson, Senior
	-
DE		Jameer Outsey, Senior
CB		Jericho Flowers, Junior
S		Dalton Baker, Senior

[ELA]

Then, today's

111. Georgia Southern Eagles

#5 in Sun Belt

The question isn't whether you can win at Georgia Southern, it's can you win without the triple option.  The school for the second time in modern history tried to veer away from the scheme they are known for, and for the second time, it didn't work.  Things got so bad under Tyson Summers, that merely closing out the year 2-4 was enough for the university to think Chad Lunsford should be promoted from interim to full head coach.  Lunsford seems to be all in on the mentality that nothing was broken though.  In fairness Georgia Southern was arguably the youngest team in the nation last year, and only graduates one starter from each side of the ball.  You look for certain stats to automatically improve with a team like that, things like penalties, turnovers, 3rd downs, but really Georgia Southern was fine in all of those areas last year.  The problem might not have been youth.  At least Lunsford noted the offense had to be fixed.  You can't attempt to run the triple option while picking up the fewest first downs in the SUn Belt, and finishing 10th in 3rd down conversions.  You are knowingly sacrificing explosiveness for consistency, so the one thing you can't do is lack consistency.  So out as Offensive Coordinator is Bryan Cook, who learned the triple option under Paul Johnson, and in comes Bob DeBesse, whose modified triple option offense at New Mexico worked swimmingly...until it didn't last year.  Freshman quarterback Shai Werts seemed to take his game up a level after the coaching change as well.  Werts' four best rushing games came during the 6 games Lunsford coached.  They'd like him to take fewer hits, which New Mexico's quarterbacks did, for a triple option team.  Lunsford also made a change at DC, bringing over the co-DC from Appalachian State.  It will be interesting to see if he brings the Mountaineers' 3-4 with him, or sticks with the 4-3, which better fits his current personnel.  Logan Hunt was one of the best interior linemen in the conference a year ago, but at 6'2" 270, there's no way he can play nose tackle, and will probably shift outside.  Likewise, Raymond Johnson, who earned All-Conference USA honors as a freshman, would be asked to stand up.  For him, as only 225 pounds, that may be a better fit anyway, and should help him really build on the 4 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries he got a year ago.    

Key Players

QB		Shai Werts, Sophomore
RB		Wesley Field, Senior
C		Curtis Rainey, Senior
	-
DE		Raymond Johnson, Sophomore
DT		Logan Hunt, Senior
CB		Monquavion Brinson, Junior

[Brutus Buckeye]

There aren't going to be very many Sunbelt teams in the top 100. 

[ELA]

There aren't going to be very many Sunbelt teams in the top 100.

For comparison purposes, in the final composite computer rankings last year there were 5, but #4 and #5 were #98 and #99.  So there were only 3 in the top 97.

[ELA]

110. Southern Miss Eagles

#8 in Conference USA

It's hard to imagine a team returning 435 passing attempts, over 3,100 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions having a quarterback conundrum, but that's where Southern Miss is.  Kwadra Griggs played in 10 games a year ago, completing 56% of his passes for 1,879 yards, 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions; while Keon Howard played in 9, completed 57%, for 1,199 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Kind of makes you wonder why Jack Abraham, the #3 rated JUCO QB, and Neil McLaurin, the #10 rated JUCO QB, threw their hats in the ring.  The only sure thing is that true freshman Tate Whatley, who will also miss all of spring ball with an injury, will redshirt.  Jay Hopson may just want to play two quarterbacks at a time, when he sees what happened to the rest of his skill position players.  Ito Smith, who earned 1st team All-Conference USA honors, rushing for 1,415 yards, while tallying 69% of the team's carries.  He also was 3rd on the team with 40 catches, totaling over 22 touches per game.  That job now likely falls to a pair of rising seniors to split, Tez Parks and T-Rod Daniels.  Daniels is intriguing as a small, explosive guy.  He averaged over 7 yards a carry on 21 carries a year ago.  But how many hits can his 5'9", 170 pound frame take.  The 6'1", 210 lbs. Parks figures to get more of the split.  Two of the starting receivers were seniors, and the third, Korey Robertson, is taking his 1,106 yard season right to the NFL a year early.  Quez Watkins is the only returning non-running back with more than 8 catches a year ago.  Tez Parks, the backup running back, is 2nd among returning players, with 11 catches for 83 yards.  Tight end Jay'Shawn Washington may have a bigger role in the offense this year out of necessity.  It's not just at the skill positions though.  Fifteen Southern Miss players earned some sort of 1st, 2nd or Honorable Mention All-Conference recognition last year, 10 either graduated or left for the NFL, and one of the 5 returning is a kicker.  That's why, while 8-4 with an Independence Bowl game against Florida State was nice, but it was conference title or bust for the program in 2017.  2018 looks to be a rebuilding year.  It's a good thing they signed arguably the best class in the conference in 2017, because a lot of those true sophomores/redshirt freshmen, are going to be relied upon in 2018.

Key Players

T		Drake Dorbeck, Junior
G		Arvin Fletcher, Sophomore
K		Parker Shaunfield, Senior
	-
DE		LaDarius Harris, Senior
LB		Paxton Schrimsher, Junior
LB		Racheem Boothe, Sophomore

[ELA]

109. FIU Panthers

#7 in Conference USA

That collective groan from Miami was the sound of jealousy as their rivals 60 miles to the north, became the mid-major du jour in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin, while another in state mid-major, Central Florida, had a major breakthrough, reaching the New Years Six, and beating Auburn once they got there to cap an undefeated season.  When is it going to be their turn?  Under Mario Cristobal, the Panthers won 7 of their final 9, won their only ever conference championship.  They built on that into 2011 with T.Y. Hilton, with a 3-0 start, which included a road win at Louisville.  They broke home attendance records in back to back weeks.  But they lost at home to UL Lafayette, stumbled to the finish, and did even make it back to a bowl game until last year.  Butch Davis is a really good coach.  FIU is lucky to have him.  He'll probably have the Panthers competing for bowl bids as long as he's in town.  Maybe they are happy with that.  But seeing what Florida Atlantic and Central Florida accomplished last year, I doubt it.  They have to aim big, and be willing to miss big.  Don't grab a formerly great coach at the end of his career, take a risk on a young OC like Scott Frost.  No matter who is coaching, just getting those 6 wins this year is going to be a battle.  FIU gets a chance to make a statement quickly, with a home game to open the season against a Power 5 school in Indiana.  They had a similar shot two years ago, opening with Indiana and Maryland at home, but lost both, by a combined 75-27.  The only proven defensive star on the roster is Ferrin Silva, who racked up 7 sacks and 14 tackles for loss, top 5 in Conference USA for both.  He leads a defense that is going to have to shoulder the load early.  The front is going to have to generate a ton of disruption, and they very well could, returning all four starters (including the top sack duo in the conference) and adding two 4* JUCO transfers who were ranked among the top 10 overall JUCO recruits in the nation.  Let's just say Conference USA linemen aren't used to having to block 6'5", 350 pound interior tackles, like what Tayland Humphrey brings to the table, unless it's a paycheck game at Alabama.  Perhaps that's why he had offers from Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee and Texas A&M.  He's the type of recruit FIU simply isn't used to landing.  Offensively, the line should be about the only certainty, as the starting quarterback, leading rusher, leading receiver and starting tight end all graduated.  Napoleon Maxwell has a chance to be a star if he can handle the increased workload at running back.

Key Players

WR		Anthony Gaiter, Junior
T		Daquane Wilkie, Senior
K		Jose Borregales, Sophomore
	-
DE		Fermin Silva, Senior
DT		Anthony Johnson, Senior
LB		Sage Lewis, Junior

[ELA]

108. New Mexico State Aggies

Independent

Much like Idaho went to their third bowl in program history, the same year they announced they were leaving the Sun Belt for the FCS, New Mexico State qualified for their first bowl game in over half a century a year after the Sun Belt announced their membership would not be renewed.  Personally, I think it makes all the sense in the world for New Mexico State to drop back as well.  They actually have a pretty solid basketball program that is underserved in the WAC.  They might be better off going FCS, and trying to get a basketball only membership to the WCC.  But I digress.  On the gridiron their 7 wins were not eye popping, but for a school whose last bowl game was the 1960 Sun Bowl, you can't get picky.  And while they didn't win the games, they only lost by 6 at Arizona State and only lost by 3 to a pretty decent Sun Belt champion Troy team.  The Aggies did it by passing the ball all over the yard, and by getting after the quarterback relentlessly.  Unfortunately the Rogers to Scott connection graduated.  Tyler Rogers led the Sun Belt at 335 passing ypg, and Scott was 2nd at 83 receiving yards per game.  There is more in the tank at wideout, with 2/3 of the Aggies All-Conference receiving corps returning.  Doug Martin remains cautiously optimistic about his replacement for Rogers too.  Nick Jeanty got mop up duty in one game last year, but saw extensive time in two others, when Rogers got hurt against UL Lafayette, and then missed all of the Idaho game, completing 67% of his passes.  The issue is not going downfield enough, a drop of 1.7 ypa versus Rogers, and for a guy seemingly making the safer throws, he threw way too many interceptions, 4 in only 72 attempts, 1 per 18, compared to 1 per 31 for Rogers.  Jeanty does present more of a running threat, one that they actually let go against Idago, running 9 times for 43 yards.  Those 43 yards alone were enough to make him the team's 3rd leading rusher.  Expect the pressure to stay dialed up defensively, with 9 starters returning, including the entire defensive line and six of the front seven.  The Aggies led the conference in sacks, and three of the four leading returning players in the conference in terms of sacks, play for New Mexico State, in Cedric Wilcots (9.5), Terrill Hanks (7) and Malik Demby (6.5).

Key Players

WR		O.J. Clark, Junior
WR		Anthony Muse, Junior
T		Isaac McClain, Senior
	-
DE		Cedric Wilcots, Junior
CB		Shamad Lomax, Junior
S		Ron LaForce, Senior

[Brutus Buckeye]

Idaho didn't "want" to go FCS. They just didn't have much of a choice. The MWC didn't want them. They were willing to join the Sunbelt in the opposite corner of the country, but the Sunbelt revoked their membership. Their two geographic rivals, Wazzou and Boise, were unwilling to play the Vandals on the road going forward; so Independence wasn't a viable option. Since they would've been pretty hard pressed to come up with the minimum five home games per season, they did what they had to. Crawl back to the Big Sky. 

NMSU's situation isn't quite as dire. Sure, they were also booted from the Belt. To make matters worse New Mexico is blocking them from joining the MWC and UTep is blocking them from joining CUSA. But... New Mexico and UTep are both at least willing to continue their out of Conference H-A series with the Red Aggies. So that gives NMSU a decent foundation on which to construct an Independent schedule. While their Geography isn't great, it is quite a bit better than Idaho's. They can load up their schedule with Texas G5 teams as well as Mountain Division MWC teams. Toss in some D1 Independents (BYU, Army, Liberty, UMass) a couple of body bag game$, and an FCS cupcake from Texas, and that's not awful. 

[CatsbyAZ]

NMSt football schedules I am looking at on FBSSchedules.com show NMSt facing Liberty TWICE next season. And the next. Might be a typo.

Anyway, congrats on going bowling last season, NMSt. It made for a very successful Arizona Bowl because in the excitement so many Aggies fans made the drive on I-10 into Tucson.

In other goods news the Aggie coaching staff appears to be making the most of it on the recruiting trail. It's a program that mostly signed only unevaluated JuCos and 2 stars and last month they brought in a class with a good corps of 3 star recruits with OK lists of offers.

[Drew4UTk]

publisher updated... I finally got around to it.  I won't let it get so far behind again!

https://www.cfb51.com/pub/?p=41956

[ELA]

107. Eastern Michigan Eagles

#9 in MAC

It's certainly hard to be terribly disappointed with a 5-7 season at a school that had only won 5 games twice since 1995, but coming off of the school's first bowl trip in three decades, returning a lot of offensive talent, including the school's best quarterback since Charlie Batch, falling short of a bowl bid has to feel like a disappointment.  Particularly when they started 2-0, with a road win over a Big Ten school in Rutgers.  I think Chris Creighton has proven he's the right guy for the job, but if they couldn't get bowl eligible last season, it's tough to imagine them doing so in 2018, particularly with road trips to Purdue and San Diego State in September.  If they can figure out a way to get to 3 or 4 wins in September and October, they have a shot, with a November slate that has Central Michigan and Akron coming to Ypsilanti, before a trip to Kent State.  The team will be led against by Neal Neathery's defense.  Another year like 2017, and he could be positioning himself for a better DC gig.  His hybrid 3-3-5, 4-2-5 system allows Jeremiah Harris to flourish, sometimes playing with his hand on the ground, sometimes moving around and blitzing from the linebacker position.  Pressure in the backfield is what the defense is built on, finishing 2nd in the MAC in both scoring defense and total defense, 3rd in sacks.  Some of that was out of necessity, covering for a lot of holes in the secondary.  The Eagles gave up only 190 passing ypg, but a lot of that was due to pressure.  Their completion percentage allowed, and pass efficiency defense was much lower, and only Ball State created fewer interceptions.  Neathery went young last year, starting two juniors and three sophomores in the secondary, relegating seniors Anthony Brown and Juan Giraldo to backup roles.  With all five starters now returning, the hope is that group can make a big step forward, led by Brody Hoying.  Too much of the offense fell on quarterback Brogan Roback last year.  With him gone, and inexperienced sophomore Isaac Stiebelding likely taking over, the running game, 2nd worst in the MAC last year, has to progress.  Ian Eriksen returns, after leading the team in rushing, and Shaq Vann, injured off and on, showed in the finale against Bowling Green, why he has the most upside.  All five starters on the line return.

Key Players

RB		Ian Eriksen, Senior
G		Jimmy Leatiota, Senior
K		Paulie Fricano, Junior
	-
DE		Jeremiah Harris, Senior
DT		Maxx Crosby, Junior
S		Brody Hoying, Junior

[ELA]

publisher updated... I finally got around to it.  I won't let it get so far behind again!

https://www.cfb51.com/pub/?p=41956

Ha, thanks!  Decided to make things hard on you, and immidiately post a new one