ELA 130 Team Countdown

[Entropy]

OSU, PSU and Wisky I see in the top10... MSU and Michigan I'm not sure.. That doesn't mean they're not quality teams.  Rather, they'll have enough loses not to be in the Top 10.  

[ELA]

OSU, PSU and Wisky I see in the top10... MSU and Michigan I'm not sure.. That doesn't mean they're not quality teams.  Rather, they'll have enough loses not to be in the Top 10.  

Well, this is all just on paper.  I don't see any way the Big Ten East ends up with 4 teams in the top 11. They will have a minimum of 6 losses combined even running the table otherwise.  Two of the 4 play Wisconsin, which means sticking to 6 losses means handing Wisconsin 2.
So in the end, I agree, but that's why I don't factor schedule into these.

[Brutus Buckeye]

The Wolverines will lose to MSU, OSU, PSU and Wisconsin. 

With a few breaks, they could maybe go 1-3 in those games. 

[Entropy]

ELA...  Sorry for the confusion.  I was responding to Phil Steele posts... I believe he does factor in schedules.   Perhaps I'm incorrect.

[ELA]

ELA...  Sorry for the confusion.  I was responding to Phil Steele posts... I believe he does factor in schedules.   Perhaps I'm incorrect.

What I will say is the pollsters in the CFP era have gotten a little better at actually evaluating losses.  If the #8 team loses a close road game to #3, why should they fall in the rankings?  Doesn't that only affirm the rankings?  Previously it was basically, if you lost, you fell.  Generally between 6-8 spots.  Didn't matter how "good" or bad the loss was.

[Cincydawg]

I would think if no. 8 loses to no. 3 in a close game they would not drop except early in the year.  And we all know a 9-4 team can be better than an12-1 team ...

Close losses count.  So do blow outs. 

The odd thing is when no. 3 blows out no. 16 such that they drop out of the rankings and thus devalue the win, versus winning say 31-17.

[Temp430]

Hard to say how good Michigan will be this year.  I expect the defense to be very good to great.  No idea about the offense given past problems on the OL.  I think Michigan will be fine at QB with Patterson or Peters.  If Michigan can find a serviceable OT the offense could be very good. The season opener in South Bend should be very informative.  In past decades the winner of that game usually went on to have a good season and the loser not so much.  Michigan could end up third in the Big Ten East or win the Big Ten outright, yes even with their schedule.  Pure guess work at this point.

Go Blue!

[TyphonInc]

The Wolverines will lose to MSU, OSU, PSU and Wisconsin.

With a few breaks, they could maybe go 1-3 in those games.

I'm preseason picking a 180 from Brutus Buckeye. I think TTUN goes 3-1 in those marquee games and wins the B1G. THe addition of Patterson at QB and Warriner as O-line coach will be HUGE.
C-bus radio throughout a stat, that only 2 coaches in the B1G have won a title if they didn't win it in their first 4 years. If this isn't the year for Hairball, statistically it never will be. 

[ELA]

I'm preseason picking a 180 from Brutus Buckeye. I think TTUN goes 3-1 in those marquee games and wins the B1G. THe addition of Patterson at QB and Warriner as O-line coach will be HUGE.
C-bus radio throughout a stat, that only 2 coaches in the B1G have won a title if they didn't win it in their first 4 years. If this isn't the year for Hairball, statistically it never will be.

Are you sure you didn't just read that in my write up?

I said last year that if he didn't do something by season 4, he probably never would.  So for my Michigan write up I looked up the exact stat.  Only one coach Big Ten coach in the past 30 years won a Big Ten title after failing to in his first 4 years (Ron Turner).  And if you go back 50 years, it only expands to two (George Perles).  Both won in Year 5.

The Purdue coach who won it in 1967 won his first in like season 9, so he throws the whole thing off.  But since him, not much.

[ELA]

10. Central Florida Knights

#1 in American

I know I’m more bullish on Central Florida’s staying power than most, but I think enough key pieces return on offense, that the machine can keep running.  First, yes, Scott Frost did a wonderful job igniting the program.  But it’s also not like he did something that the school hadn’t done before, hell it hadn’t even been that long before.  Just four years prior George O’Leary and Blake Bortles took the Knights to a 12-1 AAC Championship season, culminating in a BCS bowl (Fiesta) win over Baylor.  So while Josh Heupel needs to prove long term he can maintain a program, he’s proven he can run an offense, and there are a ton of pieces in place.  Second, I don’t think there was anything fluky about their Peach Bowl win over Auburn.  I don’t think they deserved to be in the Playoff, they didn’t have the resume to merit it, but I think they would have proven to be a top 5 team, with a more deserving schedule.  McKenzie Milton seemed like a perfect fit for Scott Frost’s offense, because of his legs.  We just didn’t expect him to be as good as he was throwing the ball.  Instead he wound up 2nd in the nation to Baker Mayfield in terms of completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, 5th nationally in Total QBR (which does adjust for strength of opponents).  He proved his worth in that Peach Bowl win, running all over Auburn’s offense for 116 yards on 8.9 ypc, and passing for another 242 yards.  Learning a new offense might have a bit of a learning curve, but it’s not going to be a drastic change, they will still go fast.  He may simply be trying to stick in the pocket a little bit more.  Defense is a little bit more of a question.  There was more NFL talent on that side of the ball than they got credit for.  They were just asked to hold on enough to let Milton do his thing.  Asking them to repeat their 7.4 ypp tally (#2 nationally) offensively seems doable.  Heupel had Missouri humming at 6.8 ypp (#8 nationally) with less offensive talent, facing SEC defenses.  Adrian Killins and Otis Anderson (who moves all over the field, but was 2nd on the team in rushing among non-quarterbacks) returning, the run game should get more of a look this year.  Those two averaged 6.8 ypc and 7.9 ypc respectively, and need to see more than the combined 170 carries they got last year.  They were dinged a bit by top receiver Tre’Quan Smith, and starting tight end Jordan Akins going to the draft early.  But the aforementioned Anderson’s return, along with Dedrick Snelson to a passing game that sees Milton’s other 7 of his top 9 targets return.  Getting senior seasons out of Smith and Akins would have simply been an embarrassment of riches.
Key Players

QB		McKenzie Milton, Junior
RB		Adrian Killins, Junior
C		Jordan Johnson, Junior
	.
NT		Trysten Hill, Junior
S		Kyle Gibson, Senior
P		Mac Loudermilk, Senior

[Brutus Buckeye]

I don't think they beat Notre Dame either. Other than those five games, the rest of their schedule is fairly manageable. 

While Harbaugh doesn't tend to lose to teams he shouldn't Nebraska is obviously a wild card, depending on how much life Scott Frost can breath into that program. I wouldn't be "shocked" if the Huskers make a statement against the Wolverines. 

No way Big Blue wins more than one of their five big games. All five of those teams have been right on the cusp of making the playoffs over the last few seasons. Michigan finished 2 games short of their usual "3rd place in the B1G East" last year. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

Are you sure you didn't just read that in my write up?

I said last year that if he didn't do something by season 4, he probably never would.  So for my Michigan write up I looked up the exact stat.  Only one coach Big Ten coach in the past 30 years won a Big Ten title after failing to in his first 4 years (Ron Turner).  And if you go back 50 years, it only expands to two (George Perles).  Both won in Year 5.

The Purdue coach who won it in 1967 won his first in like season 9, so he throws the whole thing off.  But since him, not much.

John Cooper didn't win his first until year five. 

[ELA]

John Cooper didn't win his first until year five.

Actually 6.
I skipped right over him, assuming he was a no brainer.

[SFBadger96]

Good year for Notre Dame and Michigan to play again. 

Sad that Notre Dame and Michigan State don't play.