Thursday - Saturday, all at once
| 25. Oklahoma State Cowboys |
| #2 in Big XII |
Mike Gundy has proven he doesn’t need elite offensive talent to run an elite offense in Stillwater, but last year he had it across the board, as talented an offense as he’s ever had. That’s why a 10-3 season felt like a letdown, particularly considering all 3 losses came at home, something the program hadn’t done since Gundy’s first season, 2005, when they went 4-7 overall, and only won 1 Big XII game. They also won double digit games for the third consecutive season for the first time in program history. For the naysayers who point to the increased number of games, those three straight 10-3 seasons were also the first time the program had three straight seasons of 3 or fewer losses, since Pappy Waldorf did it for five straight years from 1929-1933 at what was then Oklahoma A&M. Long before Mike Gundy showed up and started slinging the ball all over the yard, Oklahoma State had developed a bit of a reputation as a running back school. Obviously Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders in the mid to late 80s, but before them Terry Miller and Ernest Anderson in the late 70s and early 80s were great too. In fact in about a 13 year stretch from 1975-1988 the school had four different starting running backs who finished with over 3,780 career rushing yards, among six who have done it in school history. For comparison sake, Ohio State has had two...ever. It might be time for the Cowboys to get back to that with Justice Hill. With a repeat of his 2017 season, Hill will join that 3,700 yard club, and would actually slide past Barry into 5th in school history. The issues are whether the workload was starting to wear on him last season. He struggled in the final two regular season games before regaining form in the bowl game. He had the 11th most carries of any running back in the nation, and on his 5’10”, 185 pound frame, that may have worn on him. When you consider the fact that all ten backs with more carries than him weighed more than he did, and all but one had fewer receptions, you could argue he had the most wear of any back in the nation last year. And that was with an NFL QB (Mason Rudolph) throwing to a pair of NFL WRs (Washington and Ateman). They need to replace that production, because it’s impossible to ask Hill to do more. Dillon Stoner showed as a freshman the tools to likely be Oklahoma State’s next all-American candidate receiver, but the competition to throw him the ball appears wide open. Junior Taylor Cornelius and redshirt freshman Keondre Wudtee led the competition in the spring, but not all of the participants were there yet. Cornelius seemed to have the lead after spring practice, but Hawaii grad transfer Dru Brown doesn’t arrive until the fall. Brown had a solid two years as the starter on the islands, completing 60% of his passes, with a better than 2:1 TD:INT ratio, but his pocket awareness was awful and he took too many sacks. 4* dual threat quarterback Spencer Sanders, from Denton, Texas, is also set to join the program in the fall, and was not an early enrolee. Gundy has not hesitated to start freshman quarterbacks in the past, Rudolph himself took over the job as a freshman in 2013. The quarterback question is huge, but Gundy has earned trust there. Hill is a stud, and the defense should be improved under a new defensive coordinator, with a new 4-2-5 look, predicated off a strong front 7...er, 6, that will allow the Cowboys to get away with playing 5 in the back more often. With Oklahoma taking a step back, and no strong #2 on paper appearing right now, a lesser Oklahoma State team may reach the conference championship, after a loaded 2017 version could not.
Key Players| RB | | Justice Hill, Junior |
| WR | | Dillon Stoner, Sophomore |
| K | | Matt Ammendola, Junior |
| . | |
| DE | | Jordan Brailford, Junior |
| LB | | Justin Phillips, Senior |
| LB | | Calvin Bundage, Junior |
| 24. Stanford Cardinal |
| #3 in Pac 12 |
I’m generally of the mindset that any running back should go pro as soon as they have the option. It’s a limited shelf life, and there is more value in getting to that second contract a year younger than in slightly improving your draft stock, at great injury risk. So when the Doak Walker Award winner, as the nation’s best running back, decides to come back to school, it really is a head scratcher. Bryce Love set a school record, and finished second nationally in total rushing yards, and yards per carry, among qualified running backs. Stanford was 3 points away from being Pac 12 champions a year ago, but in the one game Love missed, they needed a late miracle to squeak out a 1 point win over lowly Oregon State. That’s how important he is. But it also shows just how little help he got. Stanford had a 2,000 yard rusher, and still finished 10th in the Pac 12 in total offense, thanks to a passing game that completed a conference worst 57% of their attempts, for a measly 186 ypg, second worst in the conference. Congrats Stanford, your passing attack was slightly more potent than Rich Rod’s with a glorified receiver under center. In fairness, once David Shaw made the move from Keller Chryst to K.J. Costello, the passing game slightly improved. Costello didn’t have enough pass attempts to qualify, but he would have been 3rd in the nation in Total QBR with 88.1 (behind only Baker Mayfield and Khalil Tate) if he did. That sort of shows a weakness in that stat. Basically he didn’t throw interceptions, and he didn’t take sacks. He still completed below 60% of his passes, his 7.4 ypa was #59 nationally, and he wasn’t a huge rushing threat. He averaged 137 passing yards per game, even only counting the games he both started and finished. But there was definitely improvement, enough that a full offseason of #1 reps, which he didn’t have last season, gives hope for big strides forward. If it doesn’t work, competition is coming in the form of, not one, but two, true freshmen. The top two rated recruits in Stanford’s class are pro-style quarterbacks, both ranked by 247 Composite rankings among the top 10 pro style quarterback recruits nationally, in Tanner McKee (#46 overall, #3 pro style QB) and Jack West (#235 overall, #10 pro style QB). Cameron Scarlett’s improvement as a running back would also afford new offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard, who was elevated after spending the last five years as a position coach, the ability to spell Love a little more. Scarlett has been great as a returner, but it hasn’t translated fully to running back. Even in that Oregon State game that Love missed, and Scarlett got the first team carries, he managed only 72 yards on 17 carries. The talent is clearly there though.
Key Players| RB | | Bryce Love, Senior |
| WR | | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Senior |
| G | | Nate Herbig, Junior |
| . | |
| LB | | Bobby Okereke, Senior |
| LB | | Jordan Perez, Senior |
| P | | Jake Bailey, Senior |
| 23. Boise State Broncos |
| #1 in Mountain West |
In Bryan Harsin’s four years at Boise State, the Broncos have averaged 10.5 wins per season, won a pair of Mountain West Conference titles, and gone to a New Years Six bowl. As good as that looks, had Harsin not been a Boise State player from 1995-99, when they tasted their first FBS success, and then been a grad assistant, turned position coach, turned offensive coordinator from 2001-10, including being the offensive coordinator for that stunning win over Oklahoma, even that may not have been enough. Because during his predecessor’s time in Boise, the program averaged 11.5 wins per season, won 5 of 8 conference titles, and won a pair of BCS bowls. But Harsin doesn’t get the credit for turning back around what appeared to be slipping in Peterson’s last year, and reach a Fiesta Bowl in 2014. But if Boise fans want more, and why shouldn’t they, this might be the group to give it to them. They haven’t been that far away. The last two years, Boise has finished #25 and #19 nationally in S&P+, both years better than the 2014 team that did go to the Fiesta Bowl. This year could be the best roster they’ve had since 2011, when a Dan Goodale missed chip shot field goal against TCU cost them a puncher’s chance at playing LSU for a national championship. Defensively, where the Broncos return 9 starters, all 9 of whom were all conference in 2017, is where Boise State can go from class of the conference to a national conversation. If Leighton Vander Esch had passed up being a first round NFL pick to return, we would be discussing them among the national elite. Instead, the linebackers are enough of a question mark to simply relegate them to probably being the best defense of the group of five. Returning your entire line and secondary, all eight of which were named all-conference, should at least get you that. Offensively Boise State returns 1,000 yard rusher Alexander Mattison, but they want a lot more of him. His production has not matched the share of the carries he gets. He’ll need to take his game up a notch, because while Brett Rypien is probably the best quarterback in the Mountain West going into 2018, I have no idea who he is going to throw it to. Cedrick Wilson was option A, B and C last year, and otherwise dump it to tight end Jake Roh. Both guys graduated, leaving it on A.J. Richardson and Sean Modster as the most experienced targets. Both became more established options down the stretch last year, and were looking to build on that going in 2018, but then over the final two games, being the WAC Championship against Fresno State and the Las Vegas Bowl against Oregon, they combined for 6 catches across two games. At Boise State, nobody cares if you can pile up catches against UNLV or San Jose State. There are only a couple of marquee (read loasable) games per year, and Richardson and Modster disappeared. That does raise the question of what the bar is for Boise State. They, perhaps more than any other school, were responsible for getting the Group of 5 a seat at the table. But now that the seat is guarenteed, is it any longer as meaningful as when Boise got there in 2006? 2014’s Fiesta Bowl appearance would suggest no. Is a CFP birth too lofty? Perhaps, but if there’s a program to challenge it, and a roster to accomplish it, it’s this one. The issue remains the schedule. Winning at Oklahoma State would be nice, but the Mountain West isn’t pulling it’s weight right now. Aside from Fresno State, and then only barely, there is nobody Boise State could beat in conference that would generate any buzz.
Key Players| QB | | Brett Rypien, Senior |
| RB | | Alexander Mattison, Junior |
| T | | Ezra Cleveland, Sophomore |
| . | |
| DE | | Curtis Weaver, Sophomore |
| DT | | David Moa, Senior |
| CB | | Tyler Horton, Senior |
| 22. Florida State Seminoles |
| #5 in ACC |
Only 5 years removed from a national championship, Florida State is undergoing a program reset. Both with a new coach, and a near total defensive turnover. Having 6 players depart early for the NFL from a team that needed a three game winning streak to finish the season (over lowly Delaware State, Florida and UL Monroe) just to get bowl eligible, and then lost its coach be ranked in the top 25 seems optimistic, but it may also be just what the program needed. It was clear, for whatever reason that the marriage with Jimbo Fisher wasn’t working anymore, for whatever reason, and Willie Taggert seems like a perfect fit. This is Taggert’s fourth head coaching job in seven seasons, but he built Western Kentucky from 2-10 into a bowl team in three years, and South Florida from 2-10 to 10-2 and ranked in the top 20 in four. The resources he has here are obviously much greater. In year one, he may have to rely on simply outscoring everybody. The Seminoles appear capable of doing that, after struggling mightily on offense last season, averaging only 351 ypg, second worst in the ACC. Florida State’s 2017 season was lost when they lost their starting quarterback for the season. Now they reap the benefits of having two players, both only sophomores, with a full year of starting experience under their belt in Deondre Francois and James Blackman. Francois still wasn’t fully healthy in the spring, so that quarterback competition has been delayed until the fall. Whoever wins the job will have a hell of a 1-2 punch in the backfield to count on, with Jacques Patrick turning down the NFL to return for his senior season, and joining Cam Akers, who was all-ACC as a true freshman last year. The two combined for 1,617 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns last season, but both need to work on being better in the pass game, both blocking and catching balls. Defense is where the major concern is, with only two starters returning, and tons of questions in the back seven. Obviously the talent is there, the talent is always there in Tallahassee, but it’s young. The line is the only area with any amount of certainty, and even that is relative, with two starters gone to the NFL, both picked in the first half of the draft.
Key Players| RB | | Cam Akers, Sophomore |
| C | | Alec Eberle, Senior |
| K | | Ricky Aguayo, Junior |
| . | |
| DE | | Brian Burns, Junior |
| DT | | DeMarcus Christmas, Senior |
| CB | | Stanford Samuels, Sophomore |
