so it's tomorrow... and I've re-watched every game for both teams up to this point.
speaking in technical terms, UT is more than a 10 point favorite- they 'should' literally blast the gators by 30 points. I'm talking a 49-14 affair. maybe a 56-14... the gators are that bad, and have relied heavily on refs for those win column entries, and the Vols are that good on offense. the vol defense isn't bad either and stacks up against the UF O very nicely.
but
i have a weird feel about this game that hinges on something i think i must have missed- hence the watching of the game over and over.
here is what i got, for whatever value it holds:
- Hooker has been a little off all year compared to last year- he throws high... UF has talented DB's as individuals, and in a one on one match this could force t/o's that hooker has avoided all season thus far.
- Milton has a ridiculously strong arm and his decision making has vastly improved since last season. he actually may be the better choice in this game, which is something i can't believe i'm actually saying.
- the o line is going to have to step up- the gator front four, as talented individuals, are good... either the play selection remains RPO and fast developing, or, we'll see Milton on the field.
now i spoke about individual player talent... and florida has them all over the field.. but, there is a break down and that break down between talent and translating it to team and wins is what has me uneasy... it can be coached... and it's name is scheme.
it's been said "scheme places the players in position, and talent makes the play". that is my detachment with this game... the gators are only a couple more games from figuring out their assignments in the scheme they're running. they already have the talent- it's their lack of execution and placement that has hindered them so far. that can change in a split second when the 'lights' come on and they grasp- at game speed- their roles, and those roles begin to operate in unison- aka 'play as a team'..
Tennessee's apparent overthrowing QB issue may also be a scheme issue, but it's so hard to tell with the limited evidence. most laymen would believe the passes overthrown or thrown inaccurately would be a miscue by the QB, but in the offensive scheme UT runs it's more about timing. The receivers placement on the field and where/when the QB chunks it to that location has to be in unison... there is some margin for error, but it's small.
the type of O in the outside passing routes UT runs is directly attached to how much pressure the QB is under- and his timing... if hooker doesn't look, which is good because he may be scrambling, he's ticking down a clock in his noggin... when he finds daylight and enough time to throw he's going to be looking at a small sector of the field for his primary and have only a split second to determine whether to throw it there or not... the receiver 'should' be within a 5yd block.. if he isn't because he was stunted at the line a second longer than he should have been, or if he stumbled or some such, hookers window to throw closes... and that leaves the second check off if he can get to it. timing. timing routes and sectors.. it's how UT works... and if my dumb ass can see this, so can the UF DC... which means two things: get the pressure on Hooker, and bump the receivers from a man to man hard as they step off the line. break up the timing.
for UT to win that is what they're going to have to negotiate- heavy pressure and man to man physical defensive backs to break up the timing. for UT to win BIG, all they have to do is keep UF from finding the rhythm they are on the cusp of finding.
