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Topic: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing

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Cincydawg

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2017, 11:57:12 AM »
When two teams are undefeated, and the rest look mediocre at best, it stands to reason those wins are going to look like wins over bad teams.  Alabama has the best looking conference win right now.

UGA doesn't play A&M of course, and both play Auburn very late.  Any conference win over about anyone else is not going to look very good.  A loss would of course look bad.

Anyone who manages 12-0 has done pretty well.  You need to have some blow outs and manage to win your close game or two where you didn't play well.

bamajoe

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2017, 03:30:05 PM »
It occurred to me that Kentucky is getting no respect. They are 5-1 with their only loss being to Florida in a game they should have won.

Here's my rankings
1 - Bama
2 - Georgia
3 - Auburn
4 - A&M
5 - Kentucky
6 - Everybody else

I don't subscribe to the theory that the better team always wins.

Cincydawg

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2017, 03:46:04 PM »
Each year, we see the better team losing to a lesser team.  Nobody sane would claim Syracuse is better than Clemson.  A bunch of unusual events conspired to have Clemson lose.  Syracuse might win 1 time in 10, but this was that one.

I tend to view it as statistics and probability.  Let's say Alabama has 10 games and for each they have a 90% chance of winning.  They have only a 35% chance of winning them all.  That 1 in 10 will come up often as not.  Ole Miss beat them a few years back with a 5-0 turnover margin.

Stuff happens.  A helmet hits the football just right and it pops into the arms of a defender.  A pass is tipped by a WR and drops into the hands of a safety.  A penalty is missed on a KO return.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2017, 08:49:06 PM »
The better team doesn't always win, but the better team that day wins nearly 100% of the time, barring disastrous refereeing or something like that.  

Syracuse certainly doesn't seem to be better than Clemson, but neither was that game fluky, either.  I don't know why and I don't know how, but the Syracuse front 7 flat out whipped the Clemson front 5 most all game, to the point I found myself thinking I don't think it would've made much difference if Kelly Bryant had played the 2nd half.  On the other side, the Syracuse O-line held their own well enough against the vaunted Clemson front 7.  There were no crazy bounces of the ball, no 1-in-100 crazy plays and not an excessive amount of chunk plays.  Just Syracuse outplaying Clemson, straight up.  The trenches were the most unbelievable part of that game.  

I know several who are major believers in Dino Babers....coaching accounts for a lot.  

I think coaching decisions and plans are often overlooked in games.  People tend to think the best team winning simply means the team with the most 4 and 5 stars.  That will get you a long way, but if you're even in the ballpark, game management factors in hugely.  I was a genuine X's and O's noob when I joined this board 11 years ago.  I'm still not advanced, but the more I've studied the game over the years the more I've realized how much mental work goes into each play.  And not just the players, the offensive and defensive play each coordinator calls is really big.  If one coach is on fire that day and his opponent is not, look out.  

In the first quarter when Auburn was blowing us out, they had a tunnel screen go 52 yards for a TD.  Fantastic play-call by Malzahn--or Chip Lindsey, whatever--where they spread the field and motion a back out of the backfield.  LSU's Tyler Taylor follows him, LSU still sends pressure, but Stidham spots it for the big screen.  Perfect call for what DC Dave Aranda was sending.  The LSU players didn't do anything "wrong" there, and they weren't suddenly slower, weaker, or less highly rated than Auburn.  The coordinators were playing rock/paper/scissors and Auburn's guy read Aranda like a book.  

A coach can get really dialed in like that, maybe for a few plays, maybe for a game, and suddenly a "lesser" team is the better team.  That day, anyway.  Talent is well worth paying attention to, but I think many people stop there when figuring out who the good teams are, and what that means.  It doesn't just go up and down by the week, it's a constant variance from play to play.  Coaching is HUGE.  

bamajoe

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2017, 09:19:36 PM »
I disagree about a winning team always being better on the day of the game. If the better team always wins then it would be a stupid game devoid of interest and suspense. IMHO that Auburn was and is better than LSU even though LSU won. The reason Auburn lost was because of incredibly bad play calling. Auburn called 17 straight running plays on 1st down. It was like Auburn called LSU and told them what play they were running.

Syracuse beat Clemson because Clemson lost their qb early in the game.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2017, 11:28:58 PM »
Wrong, on all accounts.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 11:32:11 PM by MikeDeTiger »

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2017, 11:30:56 PM »
But I am willing to concede your point about Clemson if you're willing to say Alabama beat Texas because UT lost Colt McCoy early in the game. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2017, 07:02:36 AM »
It strikes me that a "power poll" means the higher ranked team would usually defeat the lower ranked team, right?

That "usually" turns into "almost always" when you have #14 visiting #1.  We just had #13 visit #2 and #13 put up a tussle in the first half and with some breaks/errors could have stayed relevant into late in the game and possibly won.  That data could mean #2 is too high or #13 is too low, or it could mean it was just one of those days.

I think we'd all agree that the Vols have virtually no chance of beating Bama at home, right?  One chance in 200 maybe?

If we had say A&M playing UGA in CS, we might all think A&M had a pretty decent shot, like say 30-40%.

So, a question then is does anyone in the West remaining on Bama's schedule have much of a shot aside from Auburn?  LSU?  Are we talking 10% chance for LSU?  Maybe 30% chance of Auburn?  Or are these figures too high?

I'd note that Alabama has often lost a game in the recent past regular season.  That becomes more probable because of multiple chances of course.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2017, 01:16:59 PM »
I'm not sure exactly what you're asking about the polls.  But I'll offer that power polls are as flawed and contradictory as resume polls.  Football isn't as simple as "Team A > Team B, and Team B > Team C."  That ignores specific strengths and weaknesses, and the matchups that result.  Team A can be favored to beat Team B for good reason.  Team B can be favored to beat Team C for good reason.  But that doesn't mean Team A has to be favored to beat Team C, because maybe Team C is really good at something that Team A doesn't defend well and Team C is uniquely positioned to exploit that weakness in a way other teams can't.  

I'm not sure what the percentages are, but Auburn and Georgia have the best chance to knock off Alabama.  Probably less than 50%, but not so low that winning should stun anybody.  

Maybe I'm still colored by Auburn's big wins over struggling teams and a close loss at Clemson.  I'm not sure exactly why they didn't dominate LSU more on the lines, but I will say it is mostly demonstrably false to blame AU's loss to LSU on bad playcalling.  I can really only point to a couple of things that I think AU did "wrong" in that game, and honestly that's not out of the ordinary for a team in a game.  I don't watch many games where I think "Wow, that coach totally nailed everything in that game."  

That said, play that game 10x and at this point I feel like AU should, in general, win the line of scrimmage, which they did not.  It would help if Stidham was more mobile, but they've got the team to give Bama a fight, and possibly win.  Same goes for UGA.  I don't know that Fromm is much of a runner and that would greatly aid their cause, but UGA may be strong enough everywhere else to put themselves in position to pull the upset.  Again, I don't know how to handicap odds, but LSU is not nearly in the position to upset Alabama that AU and UGA are.  They are playing 3 true freshman on the OL at this point and the DL is still injured to hell and back, and to date they don't have an interior rushing threat.  That's much more a recipe to lose by 50 to Alabama than to upset them.  

AUauditor86

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2017, 01:19:22 PM »
 :'(.......no explanation for calling off the dogs against a team with the talent of LSU....no explanation.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2017, 01:33:32 PM »
:'(.......no explanation for calling off the dogs against a team with the talent of LSU....no explanation.
I really don't think Auburn ever called off the dogs.  In fact I'd say that's demonstrably false.  I think it just seems that way because it didn't work out.  
That's an example of what I'm talking about above.  Right now Auburn is still the better team on the season so far.  But LSU played a better game.  
I keep seeing people say AU ran too much and that means they were sitting on a lead.  That's just not true.  Their passing plays were disastrous and LSU was balling way out of control in the pass defense after the 1st quarter.  If anything, AU should have committed MORE to the run, which was the only success they had in the last 3 quarters.  

VolRage

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2017, 02:02:20 PM »
I’m so sick of these fake power rankings. TN should be immediately under Bama. Why? Because Butch says the Vols are champions of life so how could one champion not be ranked behind another champion? 

Cincydawg

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2017, 02:37:25 PM »
I'd rather be a champion in life than a champion in football anyway.

Maybe we could rank them by average GPA.

Cincydawg

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Re: Week 7 "Power" Rankings of Malaise and Sighing
« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2017, 03:53:06 PM »
Is Florida going to be able to field 11 players by the next game?

 

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