Much like UK/UT last week, I don't have a good read on LSU/Bama. Don't know who will win, but here's my thoughts so far.
It's strength on strength and weakness on weakness. LSU's offense has been very good, so has Alabama's defense. Alabama's offense has been poor, so has LSU's defense. Whichever one of those things winds up being the bigger disparity probably decides who wins, and unfortunately I suspect the Tiger defense is worse than Alabama's offense, moreso than the discrepancy between the Tiger's offense and Alabama's defense. IMO, the Tide are rightly favored.
That said, I think LSU can win the game, but the offense would have to have everything go well. First key will be standing up to Alabama's pass rush. That includes the OL not being overwhelmed and Daniels correctly diagnosing the blitzes and coverages most of the time. No matter how good an offense is, the sure-fire way to put the brakes on it is to dominate the OL. It will be interesting to see if Alabama can do that since LSU's OL has probably been the best in the league thus far. Alabama has done it before to LSU. otoh, if LSU's OL holds up most of the time, it will be nearly impossible to stop LSU from moving the ball. Alabama has the DBs to redirect LSU WRs off the line some and try to jam up the timing, but on the whole, if there's any time to operate and Daniels doesn't have the yips, I'm not sure you can stop this offense. Question is, can LSU hit 40 on a defense like this? However good they've been, that's a tough ask. But they probably need to in order to have any chance of winning.
Because on the other side is LSU's defense. Whatever problems Alabama has had on offense are about to look like they got fixed overnight, almost as if by magic. We're down our best DT and there's not a single cornerback left for this game that we snagged from the portal to fill the leaky roster O left us with...they've all been injured or suspended. That leaves us trotting out the true freshman from this past recruiting cycle. The sad thing is I'm not sure it even matters. The guys we had earlier in the season were getting Moss'd by Grambling's WRs in game 2. I mean, think about that. Burton is going to have a field day against this crew, but I don't think it would've been any better without the attrition. Losing the DT may be a problem, but again, this defense has been so bad that it's hard to say it really matters. I don't think LSU can stop Burton on the long balls, I don't think they can stop McClellan on the ground, and I don't think they can stop Bama from putting up 40 at home.
QB health is paramount also, and Alabama has an edge here as well. Alabama can still win if something happens to Milroe. LSU has zero chance if something happens to Daniels.
Special teams favors Bama. We're on par in most phases, but Bama definitely has the better FG kicker (btw, congrats to Will Reichard for becoming the SEC's all-time leading scorer a few weeks ago).
My guess is Bama wins and covers easily. LSU's OL has to grind all game, Daniels has to be on fire, the WRs can't have any drops, and nobody can have any TOs, and that's just for LSU to have a chance. A great defense at home can probably stop the Tigers more than the Tigers will be able to stop Bama. Despite the fact this LSU offense is on par with 2019's offense through 8 games, the 2019 offense was historic because they rolled right through Alabama and Clemson, and other stout defenses. This team faltered in the second half against FSU, the last DL they saw with comparable talent to Alabama's front. Too much has to go right for LSU to score enough points to have a chance. otoh, Bama needs to show up and not fumble to score on just about every drive.
Bama 41
LSU 24
