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Topic: UGA - LSU

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Cincydawg

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UGA - LSU
« on: November 24, 2019, 06:18:11 PM »
Mirror image teams, it would seem.  The UGA offense has taken a leave of absence and Fromm looks pedestrian.  The LSU defense has done the same, but their offense is truly impressive.

UGA @ Vandy 30-6
LSU @ Vandy 66-38

LSU Florida 42-28
UGA-Florida  24-17

LSU - Auburn  23-20
UGA @ Auburn  21-14

UGA - A&M  - 19-13
LSU- A&M - 50-7



« Last Edit: December 01, 2019, 07:12:11 AM by Cincydawg »

Nashville4UGA

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2019, 01:35:21 PM »


UGA defense is holding opponents this year to on average of 17 pts less than they normally score. That is the good news for UGA.  UGA's defense is going to have to have a performance against LSU like Auburn did to hold them in the LOW 20's to have a chance to win.

LSU is giving up 23.5 pts a game. UGA is averaging +8 pts vs opponents average. 

LSU is scoring on average 24.7 pts per game more than opponents average giving up. 
LSU defense is limiting opponents to about 5 pts below their season average. 

I could see this being a 31 or 34 to 24-27 type of game.

Special teams, penalties, turnovers and field position will be extremely important for UGA to win in order to beat LSU. 
 
 

Cincydawg

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2019, 07:13:48 AM »
Alabama put up a lot of points on Auburn (some with special teams play).  UGA didn't obviously, nor did LSU (their lowest point total).  I think UGA can only win with +2 turnover margin or a couple big special teams plays.  I guess they can slow down the LSU offense some at least early, but then the wheels probably come off.

LSU 38  UGA 19

« Last Edit: December 01, 2019, 10:17:02 AM by Cincydawg »

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2019, 12:02:48 PM »
Whatever funk UGA's offense is in, it's not going to work vs LSU.  Unless the Tigers poop the bed, they win comfortably.  If UGA gets behind a couple of scores, forget it.
Plus Swift won't be 100%.  There's really no reasonable way to pick UGA here, but yes, turnovers could change everything.  But Burrow isn't loose with the ball, so I wouldn't count on that.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2019, 01:33:24 PM »
The UGA offense is being hampered because Fromm can't pass and his targets are not getting separation.  I have no clue what happened to Fromm, but he isn't nearly the QB he was last year, or even earlier this year.  He still can zip the ball pretty well, but his accuracy is way down.  He is getting protection, often plenty of it.  Maybe he finds his game before LSU gets in town and they serve up a stunner, but I don't expect that.

I think Swift will be 99%, and Herrien and Smith are capable anyway.  They have a talented freshman receiver with no brains apparently.  I guess that isn't too unusual.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2019, 03:55:31 PM »
It took a while this season for Edwards-Helaire to get going, during which time the competition was not nearly as stiff as what UGA's defense will be.  We have yet to see what LSU's offense looks like against an elite defense when CEH can't get yards on the ground.  Granted, that's less important than previous years because LSU is philosophically pass-first at the moment, but still, it's worth watching.  They still reach nearly 50/50 on run/pass ratio, skewed just a little bit to about 53% pass plays.  UGA has allowed one rushing TD this year, which is insane.  

The A&M game looked more like what I expected from the defense although I thought they'd score more than 7.  I suspect this was a matter of LSU being more suited to stop A&M's pro-style attack than it was a matter of LSU suddenly remembering how to play defense.  So, if LSU makes the playoffs, I wouldn't expect that level of performance to continue, but it could bode well vs. UGA, who runs a vaguely similar offense to the Aggies.  

The book on the Tiger defense this year was a weird one.  On paper it stood to be the best LSU defense in several years, but it never materialized.  They put up a lot of good stats, comp% allowed, ypc catch allowed, ypcarry allowed (2nd half of Ole Miss notwithstanding*) were pretty well where you'd want them and what you'd expect from a top 10ish defense, but the pass rush was never there (A&M notwithstanding) and despite how good they were at getting teams to 3rd and long, they were not good enough at getting off the field on 3rd and long.

Guess we'll see.  AU had an interesting plan for thwarting LSU's offense and they got away with it because their DL "won" rushes in the interior gaps with just 3 or 4 down linemen.  Not sure how UGA's DL compares to AU's....Florida also did something somewhat similar (though not exactly) and it didn't work as well without Derrick Brown in the middle.  But overall UGA should be the best defense LSU has seen, so I'm not sure how LSU will try to attack it or how they'll fare if UGA takes cues from previous opponents and floods the defensive backfield and dares LSU to try and run against a skeleton front.  AU did pretty well with this, though LSU had several chances to break that game open and the score is not what you'd expect from the box score.  Still, LSU never did play a complete game on offense where unforced errors and miscues didn't cost them drives, so that's not really something to count on.  

Also, I just haven't watched many UGA games this year so I don't know.  I can see the Dawgs holding LSU well below average, and I don't quite know what to expect from UGA O vs. LSU D.  

*I think the Ole Miss game is a big thing that hurts LSU's defense in perception, especially that of the committee, and it definitely inflates some numbers in what was a pretty ugly half, defensively.  That's fine, it happened, and there's nothing to do about it now.  I don't consider it particularly repeatable though, as LSU effectively played with 10 on defense and they appear to have corrected that mistake.  I thought during the game that Delpit's ankle was hurt again and that he was the primary culprit for what was happening.  Sure enough, after rewatch and reading through some game-film breakdowns, Ole Miss definitely caught on to him and began running right to his spots and he was utterly useless.  Zero agility or cutting ability, no acceleration, no pursuit, and very little physicality if he could make contact.  I really don't know why they left him in the game, but it was as close to playing with 10 guys as I've seen.  Arkansas and then A&M both tried some of the same stuff, but it didn't work well, A) because Plumlee is really fast, and B) Delpit sat the Arkansas game to heal and looked mostly back to healthy vs. A&M.  Still, the lack of a pass rush has been a problem this year.  It wouldn't surprise me if the defense put in another solid showing vs. Georgia, but if they reach a team like Ohio State, the offense better be able to participate in another shootout a la Texas/Florida/Bama, etc.  

Gigem

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2019, 04:18:27 PM »
A&M's offensive line has been really bad this year.  We haven't been able to muster much of a running game against almost anybody with the exception of USC and most of those yards came late in the game.  Mond is not a very accurate QB, especially when he's on the run.  I knew LSU was going to win but I didn't think it'd be that bad.  If you re-watch some of A&M's earlier games it was clear that our secondary got away with a lot of badly thrown deep balls.  Burrow didn't miss, in fact he made us pay.  Even though LSU got to Mond on 3rd down a lot some of those were avoidable, he holds onto the ball too long or should have at least tried to call a designed QB run instead of taking the sack.  

Gigem

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2019, 10:24:07 AM »
I’m a casual fan of UGa but I don’t see this happening for them. The only way is if LSU starts turning the ball over and Burrows has an off night. I think halftime may be something like 20-17 but as the game wears on it will be something like 37-24.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2019, 12:35:39 AM »
Welp, you got the 37 part right....
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2019, 07:32:52 AM »
The Dawg OL is not anywhere near the greatness it was said to have preseason.  Either that or every team they play has a great DL.

They can pass pro OK but not open any running lanes.

Nashville4UGA

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2019, 10:05:02 AM »
Hat's off to LSU in this one, they were the better team, but UGA certainly helped them out. 
Dropped passes, missed FG's, Int's by Fromm.  


Burrow is one hell of a QB. 

Cincydawg

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Re: UGA - LSU
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2020, 01:27:04 PM »
Alabama put up a lot of points on Auburn (some with special teams play).  UGA didn't obviously, nor did LSU (their lowest point total).  I think UGA can only win with +2 turnover margin or a couple big special teams plays.  I guess they can slow down the LSU offense some at least early, but then the wheels probably come off.

LSU 38  UGA 19


I was somewhat close, a bit too optimistic on the UGA offense.

 

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