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Topic: the tale of three programs

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Nashville4UGA

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2017, 12:31:22 PM »
F.  Makes what Spurrier did all the more amazing - 12 years in the pressure cooker that is Gainesville.  
Spurrier is the one that created the pressure cooker in Gainsville.
The 20 years prior to Spurrier arriving UF was averaging 6.5 wins and 4.5 losses per year.  (5-15 vs UGA) It wasn't like they were a great program prior to him arriving.
in the 12 years he was the coach at UF he brought that up to an average of 10 wins/2 losses. (11-1 vs UGA)  And his offenses were just destroying defenses. 2 MNC appearances, 1 championship, 6 SEC titles.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2017, 12:52:44 PM »
I'm pretty sure Drew is talking about football, thus all the other sports are irrelevant.

The only reason Muschamp and McElwain reached the records they did is because the east has been a tire fire since 2010.  Objectively, they did not put high-quality Florida teams on the field, sans probably 2012.  

Mind you, I'm not knocking Foley for the hires.  Actually it fits my belief that hiring football coaches is HARD, and you're not going to get it right at least as often as you hit a home run.  Fact is there just aren't many top level coaches out there.  Of the ones that exist, how many are interested in your particular gig?  Of those, how many are available when you are looking?  And beyond all of that, "fit" is a huge in cfb.  i.e., Bill Snyder is legitimately one of the best coaches in the game.  Could he do what he does better at a place like Florida with more resources?  I'm not so sure, and there are not shortage of similar examples that ended in failure.  It's almost a total crapshoot.  

So I don't really hold the hires against Foley.  My question is what makes him better at it than anyone else?  Hitting 1 out of 4 hires doesn't seem like a high benchmark for a place like Florida.  Meyer is an obvious bright spot, though it wasn't a long term solution.  When 75% of your hires are lackluster, I think it means you're not really any better at that part of the job than anyone else.  Drew has offered that he was better than others at knowing when to cut bait.  I agree, that's something.

I'm just spitballing and thinking out loud.  Foley's greatest acumen was always in the other areas that are not hiring football coaches, and those are huge.  In fact, given that hiring coaches is such a crapshoot, I wonder if I woudn't rather have the guy who's a brilliant CEO and okay at hiring people than a guy that's great at hiring (still going to hit with low frequency) and just an okay CEO for the dept.  


MikeDeTiger

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2017, 06:12:57 PM »
Whether this was wrong or right for Florida remains to be seen, but it's hard to believe Tennessee has been beaten to the coaching market by Florida.  

UT is UTing this all up again.  

Still time to prove me wrong, but it looks like they're on track to remain champions of life.  

No, I'm not throwing stones.  I'm well aware that we just hired the worst coach in Ole Miss history.  

Which is really saying something.  

Drew4UTk

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2017, 09:29:53 PM »
Tennessee just can't get out of their own way...  I love 'em, but man- they make it tough.  

I've said elsewhere and I'll say again: this is it- if they whiff here, UT falls off to the wastelands of has-been programs.  They are rivaled only by Nebraska, who also has an opportunity to right the ship. It's fortunate for Nebraska that they are in the geographic void they're in- people will call themselves Huskers no matter their waning helmet status or not.  The two programs parallel each other to a huge degree in my mind.  When they fired Solich I thought "that was the dumbest...." and then UT hired Dooley.  They took that dubious prize right away from Nebraska. 

I can forgive them Kiffin 'the hire', but I can't forgive them the way they let him run things.  Kiffin was 'hot' at that point and everyone believed him another Meyer type- UT was mighty proud of themselves when he landed.  I CANNOT and WILL NOT forgive them Dooley.  Just. Plain. Stupid. by any measure.  I can forgive them Butch to a degree, as they had burned through some serious cash at that point, after basically giving Kiffin the keys to the vault and turning around- without and logic whatsoever- doing the same thing with dooley- they were broke and had an AD with a really bad (deserved) reputation nobody trusted or wanted to deal with.  CBJ was about as good as they could muster.  and, as far as program health, it's hella better now than it was.. seriously, it was that bad.  

that's ALL on the AD.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2017, 11:24:18 PM »
I'm holding off judgement on Smart as a success until after next year, when he doesn't have 2 stud RBs.  If the OL is that good, they'll win next year.  If the D is that legit, they'll win next year.  We'll see.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Nashville4UGA

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2017, 10:45:53 AM »
I'm holding off judgement on Smart as a success until after next year, when he doesn't have 2 stud RBs.  If the OL is that good, they'll win next year.  If the D is that legit, they'll win next year.  We'll see.
Don't worry, there's more stud RB's coming. 

Cincydawg

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2017, 01:44:19 PM »
I'm holding off judgement on Smart as a success until after next year, when he doesn't have 2 stud RBs.  If the OL is that good, they'll win next year.  If the D is that legit, they'll win next year.  We'll see.
UGA is flat out loaded at RB in the years to come.  The key will be the OL as usual as to how well that plays out.  (They had those two studs last year and they didn't do much.)
UGA is as loaded at RB as they are at QB.  This kid out of NC is going to be hard to red shirt next year, and about as hard to rotate and get enough carries.  And they signed another one out of Florida highly rated.
Then Swift and Herrien and the boxer's son ain't bad neither, at all.  I thought Herrien was really coming along well but he simply can't get the touches.  Michel had SEVEN carries last Sat.  Seven.  In a run dominated offense up 21-0 before half the crowd sat down and Michel gets 7 carries.


Cincydawg

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2017, 01:44:44 PM »
I should add perhaps that he needed breathers after those long runs he had.

Drew4UTk

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2017, 02:09:58 PM »
in my humble opinion, UGA is about as solid a team as can be asked for- lacking only one quality that keeps them slightly outside the lone team truly elite this year (because they actually raised the bar)- and that is superior depth.  depth they have, but not at bama levels- compared to any other team, they are only shades lighter than the black black soul of Bama.

and with teams like bama and UGA, that is where they get you- though it seems to me UGA leverages their tools more than bama does.  

what i mean by this is: both teams have receivers that demand attention, else they'll light you up.  so, you do what most teams do and cover them... by doing so, and in the case of uga, they'll push a TE across center requiring a LB to pick him up, which if the mismatch it is in most cases, then that's the end of the story... but if it's not- they'll streak a back down the center seam of the field- forcing a LB to make a choice 'either TE or RB', which w/ Fromm's ability to check, means at least five.  this opens up the outside to 50/50 passes as is popular to call them this season due to man coverage protecting against yet another popular moniker this season 'run pass option'... with a team like uga, they operate with a fully functioning offense- the backs will plow you and if you leave a gap they're gone long gone.. the TE will cross center in a heartbeat and the backs will feign protection and then streak- a LB no matter how good will bite on one else be burned by the other... when the safeties fade and the LB's lean back on a play, Fromm will footloose your ass... it's the 'true balance' they have that makes them so dangerous on offense.  understand i don't suggest bama can't do the same- they certainly can as they are truly balanced as well- it's just they simply 'don't' ... saban would rather just lean on a D for three quarters until they fade into mush- relying on his superior depth- he can do exactly as uga does, he just chooses another route.  

by the way, uga laid off the gas on uf let there be no doubt.  their play selection eased after running 21 in the first 1/4.  just like they did MSU, they pounce early and discombobulate the DC, making him realize the entire field must be guarded at all times- he can't sell out on a run or a pass, else..... 7.  

these backs mentioned are something to behold and to sound anything approximating derogatory of them is disingenuous, but i will sit tight on my assessment that those backs get those passages not only because of the Oline, but because leaving one of those receivers in a 50/50 is more like leaving them in a 80/20, and pulling a LB to cover the possibly streaking RB or picking up the possibly crossing TE is a guarantee those backs (or Fromm) will get five yards at a minimum.  it's not the stars, though they are bright, it's instead the entire unit.  

both bama and uga's d speak for themselves.  
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 02:12:52 PM by Drew4UTk »

bamajoe

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2017, 04:38:14 PM »
I am just a fan and don't really know whether Georgia or Alabama is the better team. I do have a different theory about a potential match up between the two teams. Drew really likes Georgia's receivers and Fromm's ability to get the ball to them. I suspect that success has a great deal to do with their running attack. Georgia has not needed to pass thus far this year and on six of the eight games Fromm has thrown 15 or fewer passes. If Georgia can continue to run the ball then Fromm can complete his ten passes and Georgia can move on.

I suspect Bama will do a Leonard Fornette on Georgia's running backs and Fromm will come under pressure for the first time. Can he deliver? We'll see.

BTW, congratulations to Georgia for being number 1. It's been a long time. If you beat us more power to you.

Cincydawg

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2017, 05:10:23 PM »
Alabama would be about a 6 point favorite over UGA (neutral field) at this time.  

The obvious concern for UGA is what happens if their rushing attack is really stoned and Fromm has to win it.  Mizzou of all people did a pretty good job at this, but Fromm was able against their secondary to "light it up" in relative terms, but Bama is obviously a lot better than Mizzou.  I think UF tried to stone the rushing attack and ended up out of position when Michel got some room, no one was back to head him off.

I rather suspect UGA would have to pass with success to beat Bama.  I think the reverse is also true.  The UGA defense is somewhere in the same general universe as that at Bama.  The LBs are fast and aggressive and Roquan Smith has been a man on a mission.

Here's to hoping they both meet 12-0 and get it on.


MikeDeTiger

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2017, 05:30:41 PM »
I can't believe I'm going to agree with bamajoe, but there you have it.  The world is ending.  



On an LSU site I frequent, a formula was put together some years ago which is basically an adjusted ypa....we use it to look at the QBs, since QBR is one of the more mercurial stats, starting with the fact that nobody knows what the units are (i.e. a QBR was 99....okay.....99 whats exactly?)  In our case, the number means yards.  More specifically, how many yards is a QB worth when the offense calls his number?  It's not as simple as YPA, but it is a modified YPA, basically.  With my Excel ninja skills, I've been tracking the #s lately on my pimped-out spreadsheet. 



We also similarly run a team's opponents' numbers and come up with a defensive productivity # for that team.  Since it's a modified YPP, the lower the better for the defense.  In said formula, off the top of my head, if a team is down in the low 4's, you're probably looking at an elite defense.  For example, coming into November of 2015, Alabama's defense rated a low 4 number....4.1 or 4.2 maybe, I forget.  And that week, Florida actually carried the SEC banner with an even 4.0....feel free to speculate about discrepancy of schedule....east/west and all that.  



All that to say.....UGA this year has thus far posted a 3.47 in the formula.  I've been doing this a few years, and that's a ridiculously good number for a defense.  I mean, really, really good.  



and yet.....



Alabama is blowing that out of the water with a downright insane 2.85.  Two point eight five.  Alabama's defense is allowing an adjusted average of less than 3 ypp, and statistically speaking, the gap is somewhat wide between 2.85 and 3.47.  I've been doing it long enough to say over half a yard per play is significant.  



It could be sos effect, because the SEC is really bad right now compared to the last decade, but I'm just telling you, those numbers are eye-catching.  




Nashville4UGA

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2017, 06:09:02 PM »

It's nice to be #1 and all, but I'd rather it happen at the end of the season. 
Just keep winning! 

However, I think with the first playoff poll that came out the committee  probably got it right for now. 
I'm not saying I think that Georgia is better than Alabama, but as of now they do have the better resume. Not Alabama's fault that the teams on their schedule thus far have been pretty miserable. 

Alabama probably wins on a neutral field, but the gap is closing on them. 


Cincydawg

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Re: the tale of three programs
« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2017, 06:54:22 PM »
It sounds like a Bama-UGA final score might be 6-4 in 3 OTs.

 

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