LSU can't afford Orgeron's buyout right now. At this particular moment, it's more likely AD Alleva will be fired first and the new AD would probably give O a year (or two) before bringing in his own guy. AD's fate is definitely tied to O's in failure, though not necessarily in success.
The win over Florida almost certainly saved Alleva's job this week, though not permanently.
O does seem to have sold some people who matter that LSU is more of a rebuild than anyone thought. I myself will admit that while a lot of things about him make me think he's a poor coach, he's had a inordinate number of things stacked against him that LSU is not used to.
Auburn and Alabama are almost certainly losses. Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and A&M are all winnable, and LSU probably gets 2 or 3 of those, I'd say right now. That's probably enough for O to be here next year, everything else considered. I'm not as certain about the AD. If O stays it probably means Alleva isn't fired, though not certain. If O is gone, Alleva is almost certainly gone first.