Obviously, football games are not "simple" in the sense that the better team always wins. A team can look very good and then not good in successive games, leaving us to ponder how good they are in some absolute. Syllogism doesn't work. Florida beat LSU, albeit at home, and then LSU made UGA look inept, albeit on the road, and then UGA beat Florida fairly convincingly.
An individual game is subject to myriad perturbations, penalties, dropped passes, missed assignments, chance happenings, and the culmination of thee can be an upset, but not usually, but we only play once. Maybe UGA would beat LSU 65 times out of 100, but that leaves 35 times and that happened.