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Topic: SEC Rankings

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Cincydawg

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #70 on: October 10, 2024, 07:38:37 AM »
Things that seem to presage am upset, or unusually close game:

Big game the week before
Time zone shift of 3 hours coupled with early/late game on the coast
Underdog has several losses but all close while favorite has all wins but some are shaky
Mobile QB on the dog
Really raucus stadium (you rarely see this in the NFL)

.....

CWSooner

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #71 on: October 10, 2024, 06:52:50 PM »
I think college is easier to bet because they're more prone to letdown games.  I don't have the data, but I bet there's many fewer big favorites covering noon games, at least in the SEC.  And there may really be something to the 2-timezone thing in the newfangled Big Ten. 
Seems like that would make it harder to bet.
But, as I noted above, I do not bet.
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Cincydawg

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #72 on: October 11, 2024, 09:30:10 AM »
One could view the NFL as "pros" who pretty much play as predicted, without let downs or get ups, while college games can be subject to both, which MIGHT be somewhat predictable.  However, every time I see some group of "experts" predicting games, their posted track record ATS is worse than average or average or maybe a game or two ahead of that, more rarely.

CatsbyAZ

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #73 on: October 11, 2024, 11:07:52 AM »
Our previous OL, Steve Addazzio, was considered horrible by many fans. 


After Steve Addazio was promoted to OC at Florida in 2009, I remember Gator fans appalled by his one-dimensional play calling. Gator fans were convinced that as Urban Meyer's friend, he was promoted to OC to then set him up for head coaching gigs. Then Addazio moved on to land head coaching gigs all over the place - Temple, Boston College, Colorado State. He must be well liked among ADs and other coaches because he finds jobs right away, but among fans Addazio is never liked.

Here's your ultimate Addazio special:


https://twitter.com/TDISportsClips/status/1844575149816701017

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #74 on: October 14, 2024, 09:19:38 AM »
The scariest thing about UT (Longhorn variety) to me is that they have yet to play a complete game, and yet they just keep blowing people out.  Can you imagine what they'd look like without dropped gimme TDs or a QB who is sharp the whole way throughout? 

That's not really woulda/shoulda/coulda.  I'm talking about things that most teams often get ironed out over the course of a season.  

They could be better in the redzone, and sometimes that's a flaw that lingers with a team throughout a season.  It's also something a team sometimes cleans up. 

They're like a steamroller with a gear that slips and an engine that occasionally sputters.  And at the end of the day, they've still rolled 10 tons over their flattened and splattered opponents.  I suspect they have yet to play their best ball.....and that is kinda frightening.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #75 on: October 14, 2024, 09:29:20 AM »
Don't know where the unexpected magic could come from this year, but there's always Hope!*

Somebody remind me not to act like such a pussy next time a superior Ole Miss team comes to town.  This is the second time in a row the Rebears entered BR without me having any belief whatsoever in the home team, only to watch them return to their dirty state with broken hearts.  

I imagine when they watch the film this week they will collectively feel like they really let LSU off the hook and lost the game more than LSU won it.  I imagine the LSU staff will watch the same film and secretly, silently, think the same thing.

I'm good with that.  

utee94

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #76 on: October 14, 2024, 09:32:21 AM »
Good analogy.  Slipping gears probably even more apt than engine sputtering, because the power is always there, it's just not always locked-in, harnessed, and directed.

Obviously for Texas fans, this is a fun team to watch.  Even when they're delivering a B/B+ performance which is maybe the best grade I'd give them so far this season, when adjusted for level of opponent.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2024, 09:39:45 AM by utee94 »

utee94

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #77 on: October 14, 2024, 09:38:45 AM »
Somebody remind me not to act like such a pussy next time a superior Ole Miss team comes to town.  This is the second time in a row the Rebears entered BR without me having any belief whatsoever in the home team, only to watch them return to their dirty state with broken hearts. 

I imagine when they watch the film this week they will collectively feel like they really let LSU off the hook and lost the game more than LSU won it.  I imagine the LSU staff will watch the same film and secretly, silently, think the same thing.

I'm good with that. 
It was a fun game, I caught a lot of it.  LSU is quietly putting together a nice season.  2-0 in conference and only the Game1 drop to USC in a weird Las Vegas game as a blemish.

Upcoming very winnable games against Arkansas, A&M, and then an Alabama team that looks pretty vulnerable all of a sudden. 

No reason to expect doom and gloom IMO.

CWSooner

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #78 on: October 14, 2024, 03:04:11 PM »
The scariest thing about UT (Longhorn variety) to me is that they have yet to play a complete game, and yet they just keep blowing people out.  Can you imagine what they'd look like without dropped gimme TDs or a QB who is sharp the whole way throughout? 

That's not really woulda/shoulda/coulda.  I'm talking about things that most teams often get ironed out over the course of a season. 

They could be better in the redzone, and sometimes that's a flaw that lingers with a team throughout a season.  It's also something a team sometimes cleans up. 

They're like a steamroller with a gear that slips and an engine that occasionally sputters.  And at the end of the day, they've still rolled 10 tons over their flattened and splattered opponents.  I suspect they have yet to play their best ball.....and that is kinda frightening.
Good analysis, I think.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #79 on: October 15, 2024, 01:18:34 AM »
Graham Mertz tore his ACL chillin' after a handoff. 

So this is a weird result.....now Napier kind of has an out to a poor season - he's having to rely on a FR QB full-time now.  
Meh.
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utee94

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #80 on: October 15, 2024, 09:35:49 AM »
Graham Mertz tore his ACL chillin' after a handoff.

So this is a weird result.....now Napier kind of has an out to a poor season - he's having to rely on a FR QB full-time now. 
Meh.
What do you think of Napier?  Does he seem snakebit?  Bad luck?  Out of his league?  Terrible?  Curious as to your thoughts.

I've been looking forward to the Texas-Florida game, especially since our home-and-home was canceled, but I always prefer playing marquee teams like Florida at full strength.

Gigem

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #81 on: October 15, 2024, 10:21:22 AM »
What do you think of Napier?  Does he seem snakebit?  Bad luck?  Out of his league?  Terrible?  Curious as to your thoughts.

I've been looking forward to the Texas-Florida game, especially since our home-and-home was canceled, but I always prefer playing marquee teams like Florida at full strength.
I've learned through the years that great coaches overcome these things.  Every coach has challenges with players, injuries.  Yes, obviously it affects the outcome overall but why does it seem some teams are just always snakebit (A&M is high on this list in my mind) while others can overcome.  
Great example is when Rhett Bomar got caught doing some early NIL work around 2005-6 time period.  Kicked off the team.  The new QB was not even there to play QB.  I forget what position he was recruited for, but I think his name was Paul Thompson or something?  Anyways, OU went on to win the Big 12 again.  

I think it's also easy to forget that some teams are just so loaded with talent that their 3rd stringers are better than a lot of 1st stringers at other programs that they can absorb these losses.  UF should be one of those programs.  

jgvol

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #82 on: October 15, 2024, 10:37:26 AM »
Graham Mertz tore his ACL chillin' after a handoff.

So this is a weird result.....now Napier kind of has an out to a poor season - he's having to rely on a FR QB full-time now. 
Meh.
Hopefully, he gets a contract extension and raise out of the deal.

CWSooner

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Re: SEC Rankings
« Reply #83 on: October 16, 2024, 12:51:42 PM »
I've learned through the years that great coaches overcome these things.  Every coach has challenges with players, injuries.  Yes, obviously it affects the outcome overall but why does it seem some teams are just always snakebit (A&M is high on this list in my mind) while others can overcome. 
Great example is when Rhett Bomar got caught doing some early NIL work around 2005-6 time period.  Kicked off the team.  The new QB was not even there to play QB.  I forget what position he was recruited for, but I think his name was Paul Thompson or something?  Anyways, OU went on to win the Big 12 again. 

I think it's also easy to forget that some teams are just so loaded with talent that their 3rd stringers are better than a lot of 1st stringers at other programs that they can absorb these losses.  UF should be one of those programs.
Paul Thompson, out of Leander, TX, was a good athlete with a good arm. He was the backup QB in 2002, 2003, and 2004. (I think he red-shirted the 2002 season.)
He was the starter for the 2005 season opener against TCU. The 2005 Sooners were not up to the standards of the 2000-04 teams. They played poorly and got beaten by TCU. Thompson struggled at QB. The next week, hosting Tulsa, Rhett Bomar, star of Grand Prairie, TX, started, while Thompson switched to WR. He seemed to provide a spark that Thompson hadn't. He started the rest of the year. We went 8-3 after the opening loss, with losses at UCLA and (badly) in the RRS. Bomar had a high jackass quotient, and his stats weren't all that great, but he was---IIRC--the MVP of the Holiday Bowl win over Oregon. He was the presumptive starter looking forward to the 2006 season.
But his pay-for-no-work job was exposed (by a Texas A&M fan or player, I think), and he and a lineman getting the same sweet deal were booted from the program.

Paul Thompson came back to QB the team in 2006, going 11-3, winning the Big 12, but losing to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
I remember the great Scipio Tex on the Shaggy Bevo (?) message board had as his signature something like "Bob Stoops won the Big 12 with some spit, a band-aid, and a Paul Thompson bobble-head doll."
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