I may have had a little help making this with AI SEC Championship Game Scenarios – Who Plays Georgia?
With three weeks remaining, the SEC Championship Game picture is starting to clear up. Georgia looks like a pretty safe bet for Atlanta, but the second spot is still wide open.
Current SEC Standings:- Georgia: 6-1
- Alabama: 5-2
- Kentucky: 5-2
- Texas: 4-2
- Tennessee: 4-2
- Ole Miss: 4-3
- South Carolina: 4-3
Assuming Georgia takes the first spot, here are the basic scenarios for the second team.
Alabama (5-2)Remaining: Vanderbilt, Auburn
Bama wins out and finishes 7-2. That puts them in excellent shape, but doesn't necessarily guarantee Atlanta.
Tennessee owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Alabama, so the Tide needs to watch the Vols. Texas could also complicate things with a 7-2 finish.
Kentucky (5-2)Remaining: Florida, Missouri
Kentucky needs to win both and finish 7-2.
They lost head-to-head to Alabama and Tennessee, so their easiest path requires Alabama to lose another game, Tennessee to lose at least one, and Texas to finish below 7-2.
Kentucky needs the most help of the four main contenders.
Texas (4-2)Remaining: LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Texas needs to win out to finish 7-2.
An Alabama loss would really help, and Texas already owns the head-to-head over Tennessee. If Kentucky also loses another game, Texas would be in excellent position.
A 7-2 tie with Alabama would require going deeper into the SEC tiebreakers.
Tennessee (4-2)Remaining: Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt
Tennessee needs to win out and finish 7-2.
Here's where it gets interesting. Tennessee already beat Alabama AND Kentucky.
If Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky all finish 7-2, with Texas below them and Georgia alone in first, Tennessee wins that three-team tiebreaker.
Tennessee's biggest obstacle is Texas, which beat the Vols head-to-head.
Ole Miss / South Carolina / OthersThese teams would need the leading contenders to pile up losses and create a 6-3 logjam. Mathematically possible, but I'm not spending much time on those scenarios yet.
My Take:Alabama is in the best position for the second spot, but Tennessee and Texas have legitimate paths even if Bama wins out.
Kentucky is still alive but needs considerable help.
The games I'm watching most closely next weekend are Texas–LSU, Tennessee–Texas A&M, and Alabama–Vanderbilt.
Of course, if Georgia loses another game and finishes 7-2, the entire tiebreaker picture gets more complicated.
For anyone wanting to play around with the possibilities, this is an excellent SEC tiebreaker simulator:
https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fbWho do y'all think ends up playing Georgia in Atlanta?