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Topic: SEC Front Porch

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Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1050 on: October 27, 2025, 12:36:45 PM »
It's not my intention to seem to be piling on LSU, but they're in the SEC news today for a lot of reasons.  


https://twitter.com/No3sports/status/1982415023751471193

Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1051 on: October 27, 2025, 12:48:14 PM »
I watched this and wondered WTF did I just see.  I heard later Beamer told them to let them score, apparently so they could get the ball back and have enough time to score as well.  
https://twitter.com/SkullyAims/status/1982457764044542221

Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1052 on: October 27, 2025, 01:10:13 PM »
MDT,

I never really looked into the S&C coach, but I was completely unaware that we had picked up the guy from LSU that was considered the GOAT, I really had no idea.  You have to realize that I'm completely jaded by 30+ years of what is commonly known as "Battered Aggie Syndrome", or BAS for short.  In almost 30 years of being a fan, we've essentially had 3 "great" seasons.  

1998 (11 wins but lost the bowl game and finished top 10), 2012 (11 wins, Top 5 finish, obliterated OU in the Cotton Bowl), and 2020, 9 wins in the COVID shortened season and top 5 finish.  That's it.  That's the list.  Last conference championship, 1998 season. Yes, we've played some fantastic games in that time span, but it's more like Top 10 W's sprinkled in between L's to Miss State and Texas Tech.  We've never had, in my fan-lifetime, consecutive great seasons.  If we happen to win 9 games, the next year we're more likely (in fact 100%) to win 7 or worse.  

Prime example, last season we're 7-1, just beat a ranked LSU team, and then shit the bed to finish the season with the last win coming vs LSOP New Mexico State.  Basically we lost our last P4 conference games, including giving up a late lead vs USC.  

Every time we've picked up a new HC, everybody will fog over the new S&C coach, and there is always a bunch of talk about how much better the new guy is, and the old guy had the team soft, we'll win the 4th quarter, yada yada.  

Forgive me if I seem to dismiss the notion that things have changed, because the BAS is strong.  

Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1053 on: October 27, 2025, 01:15:04 PM »

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1054 on: October 27, 2025, 04:14:12 PM »
It is, in fact, immoral to lose 3 games with this roster.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1055 on: October 27, 2025, 04:29:27 PM »
No secret LSU was behind the times when it came to NIL.  One thing that can't be taken away from Kelly was he got the boosters to get with the times and realize the recruiting game had changed.  He put up a million dollars of his own money for this roster, putting his money where his mouth was.  

He succeeded, for a year anyway.  We don't have the number of mega-wealthy donors of many other fanbases, but we have some guys.  He got them to step up and buy the #1 portal class to go along with a good crop of high-school influx.  Other than a young and inexperienced OL (and tbf, they did try to shore up the OL in the portal, they just couldn't convince a few targets), this team is loaded.  Most of the guys who follow our players from the NFL-prospect standpoint expect this team to break our draft record the 2019 team set, or the 2011 defense, depending on who all comes out. 

That will be the real indictment on this coaching staff.  I haven't been this happy with the overall talent of the team in years (Ed. O had a couple very talented teams, but he never had the D-lines Les Miles used to haul in, but this current team has quite a fine group).  He had a 4000 yd passer returning, a slew of weapons, and a bought-and-paid-for defense who proved their skill.....except against mobile QBs who the DC has apparently never heard of or seen film on.  

Good luck trying to go back to the boosters now and get them to pony up again to fix the fallout of all this. 

"For what?" they'll say.  "To watch the team go 7-5 again?"  

And the fallout is coming.  A lot of these guys were just here to max out their earnings for their last season of eligibility.  Others know their worth and will be headed to the league.  The QB is out of eligibility and there is nobody in the wings or the pipeline to replace him.  

LSU went all in on this season and flamed out in spectacular fashion.  

I'd say at least Bryan Kelly gave us Jayden Daniels/Malik Nabers/Brian Thomas Jr., but the truth is, that team will be forgotten as the love fans had for that offense is buried in a cold, shallow grave by the memory of the worst defense in history that went with it.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1056 on: October 27, 2025, 04:39:41 PM »
Speaking of the OL, it's a microcosm of what has just about turned me off of this sport.  That being NIL combined with the xfer portal.

Just one quick example:  Lance Heard comes to LSU as the LT of the future.  He's awesome, but he can't beat out Will Campbell (LT) or Emery Jones (RT) who are a year older, and amazing.  But he's in the rotation and will have two years to lead the line, or one, if he chooses to leave early.  

But he doesn't, because Tennessee throws a bunch of money at him and he doesn't have to sit out a year.  

Had he stayed, he'd be protecting Nuss' blind side, and McGee probably plays RT, where he's better suited, instead of LT, and guys like Curne wouldn't be thrown in the fire as true freshmen to be devoured by A&M's carnivores.  The whole makeup of the line would be different, likely just having to mask one weak-ish LG spot instead of 3-4 spots.  Which--let's be real--you can't mask 3-4 weak spots on an OL.  

You could say one guy doesn't make that big a difference, but the reality is one guy impacts a whole bunch of dominoes that fall.  Lance Heard wouldn't have stopped Nuss from tearing his ab, but he would've stopped Nuss from limping around on two bad ankles at this point.  

Gigem

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Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1058 on: October 27, 2025, 08:37:47 PM »
Oh boy. 

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1059 on: October 28, 2025, 11:00:27 AM »
Oh boy.

There is no question that we're getting a Texas A&M/Ohio State national title game this year.  

It's definitely going to happen.

Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1060 on: October 28, 2025, 02:44:45 PM »
I don't think few realize the implications for the SEC CCG.  We have a whole slew of one loss teams, some of whom won't play the other 1 loss teams.
I don't know if this will format right:


[thead][/thead]
[th][/th]
[th]Over[/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th]Poin[/th]
[th][/th]
[th]SRS[/th]
[th][/th]
[th]Poll[/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
SchoolWLPctWLPctOffDefSRSSOSAP CurrAP PreAP HighNotes
Texas AM801.000501.00037.823.623.898.393193
Alabama71.875501.00034.418.318.707.70484
Ole Miss71.87541.80037.023.015.996.497214
Georgia61.85741.80033.719.618.005.86554
Vanderbilt71.87531.75038.418.815.781.5399
Texas62.75031.75029.014.611.961.842011
Tennessee62.75032.60045.630.912.893.01142411
Missouri62.75022.50035.416.811.721.101914
Oklahoma62.75022.50028.412.514.193.6918185
Florida34.42922.50022.420.08.0210.021513
LSU53.62523.40025.518.910.616.9893
Auburn44.50014.20024.818.611.467.4622
South Carolina35.37515.16720.421.15.186.431310
Mississippi State44.50004.00032.623.48.274.64
Kentucky25.28605.00024.130.10.297.00
Arkansas26.25004.00035.532.87.989.60


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2025.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2025, 03:06:27 PM by Gigem »

Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1061 on: October 28, 2025, 02:59:01 PM »
Right now, A&M and Bama are tied at the top with zero conference losses.  We don't play each other this season.  

Next up, you have UGA, OM, Vandy, Texas sitting at 1 losses.  Vandy and Texas play each other.  UGA and OM have already played, UGA won.  Texas still has to play A&M.  As "bad" as Texas has played this season, they still have a decent shot at going to the CCG, if they beat UGA and then beat A&M, or if other teams falter along the way.  

I'm going to go ahead and assume anybody with 2 losses is already out, although it may not be 100% mathematical at this point I think the likelihood of any 2 loss teams making it is close to Zero.  

I really don't know much about the tie-breakers, but I think it's likely that A&M finishes with at least 1 loss, we have @Mizzou, USCe, and @Texas left.  We won't be granted any 5th downs or kicked balls @Mizzou, unfortunately.  

I think UGA will hand Texas their 2nd loss, which puts Texas out of the running.  UGA has Florida (WLOCP), @Miss St (zero chance the cowbells win this), and Texas at home.  They have games also v GT and Charlotte, but they are non-con obviously and don't have any bearing on the SEC CCG, but could have CFP implications (GT is 8-0 as of now)

OM has @USCe, Florida, and @Miss State.  I think there is a good chance OM loses at least one of these games, if nothing else than the distractions caused by Lane Kiffin being courted for other jobs and their history in the past of choking away games like this.  I think they lost to UK last season for example.  

Vandy has @Texas, Auburn, UK, and @UTenn.  They have a good team, I'd say they will win both UK and Auburn, but I'm not giving them the credit yet until they beat Texas and Tennessee.  I'd say they most likely finish with 2 losses.  Which would still be a phenomenal season for them.  

Texas, as I've said, has Vandy, @ UGA, Ark, and A&M left.  I think it's very likely Texas finishes with 3 losses, UGA and then either Vandy or Ark.  Don't sleep on Ark, they can be dangerous with Petrino and he's coaching for his job at this point.  

utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1062 on: October 28, 2025, 03:08:58 PM »
Texas is equally capable of winning out or losing out at this point, I'm really not kidding. 

Gigem

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1063 on: October 28, 2025, 03:10:19 PM »
Interesting site on Tie-Breakers.  You can manipulate the outcome. 

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

 

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