header pic

The SEC Forum at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: SEC Front Porch

 (Read 177274 times)

Gigem

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3792
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #700 on: July 24, 2025, 10:17:39 AM »

MikeDeTiger

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5197
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #701 on: July 24, 2025, 10:19:03 AM »
People criticize the 2005 SC defense, and I get that to some degree.  But I think they were quite a bit better than their perception.  Mainly, I think it's that they weren't as good as 2004, or what the next group rounded into by the end of 2006 (and that same group's 2007 and 2008 seasons, especially).  But those other defenses were stellar, and 2005 shouldn't be thought of as poor simply because they weren't as good as the units that preceded and succeeded them. 

I'll say this, if Jayden Daniels had 2005 USC's defense, then 2023 LSU would have been runaway national champions and nobody would've even gotten close. 

They probably would've been top 15 if we'd had advanced stats like FEI, SP+, F+ back then.  Texas scored 38 on that unit.


I guess this technically goes on the Big Ten board ('cuz USC is now a B10 team but I will never accept that in my mind).  But Texas is now an SEC team, so this sort of goes here (but I also don't accept Texas as an SEC team.  Or A&M.  Or Arkansas.  Missouri, I'm pretty sure is an ongoing hallucination of the conference).  

I checked the bottom line numbers just to see what scores USC allowed that year.  Not counting Texas, they allowed 21.3 ppg.  Not bad, for an offensive league.  Of those 11 games that weren't Texas or Fresno (more on them in a second), Notre Dame (31) and ASU (28) were the teams that scored the most.  I don't remember Notre Dame as well that season, other than the infamous Bush-Push ending, but since ASU played LSU that season I remember them well, following them the rest of the way.  ASU was a high-powered, dangerous offense, and just ask LSU's slew of future NFL defensive stars about them.  Fresno was the lone team to actually score more than Texas (42), but that score is a clear outlier in what USC's '05 defense allowed, and frankly.....it was Fresno State, and those games happen.  Like many good statistical models, I'm more than willing to remove outliers for analysis.  Fresno, Notre Dame, and Arizona State inflate that average, and outside of that SC was giving up just 17.2 ppg.  I understand any average improves when you remove the worst cases, but understanding the skew and kurtosis of a distribution is important analytical context.  In fact, for another data point SC shared with LSU, Arkansas also played both teams and scored exactly 17 on both.  While SC is popularly thought to have been "down" on defense that year, LSU was perceived--correctly, imo--to be quite good.  

My point is SC's defense was nowhere near as meh as the narrative always seemed to claim.  Texas scored 41 (ignore my mistake in the quote) when that defense was trying its hardest, had a month to prepare, and was, frankly, much better than its perception.  Whether that was because they were overshadowed by their offense, not quite as good as the impression that the dominant display the OU NC game left everyone with, a combination, or something else entirely, I'm not sure.  

Likewise, the Texas defense didn't allow anything close to 38 during the year.  They allowed just 14.6 ppg.  They also have "outliers" with Okie. St. (28) and A&M (29).  

Texas clearly had the better defense, but SC's was quite good.  The 41-38 score was quite a testament to how good those offenses were.  

That's a long-winded explanation of why that game was the best non-LSU NC I've ever seen, and how, even despite the higher score, a smothering defense-lover like me could not reasonably nitpick it.  

MikeDeTiger

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5197
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #702 on: July 24, 2025, 10:20:00 AM »

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 23677
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #703 on: July 24, 2025, 12:15:36 PM »
I feel very bad for her.  But, she does look pretty damn awesome.

Gigem

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3792
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #704 on: July 24, 2025, 12:16:41 PM »
I think the image is AI. 

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 23677
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #705 on: July 24, 2025, 12:19:25 PM »
Ah.  Well darn then.

jgvol

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6189
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #706 on: July 24, 2025, 01:35:47 PM »
I think the image is AI.

I see a lack of a eye.

Gigem

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3792
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #707 on: July 24, 2025, 03:27:21 PM »

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6335
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #708 on: July 24, 2025, 10:50:34 PM »
I remember seeing some discussion of strength of schedule awhile back.

SI has put out a top-10 in schedule difficulty. The article (https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/rankings/college-football-rankings-hardest-schedules-2025) did not describe what method was used to determine these rankings.

10. Texas A&M
9. LSU
8. Kentucky
7. South Carolina
6. Mississippi State
5. Vanderbilt
4. Wisconsin
3. Arkansas
2. Florida
1. Oklahoma
Play Like a Champion Today

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 23677
  • Liked:

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 85765
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #710 on: Today at 08:16:13 AM »
I pay modest attention to SoS ratings because, well, in part I dislike rankings, and in part, because it's based on how teams are perceived to be preseason which we know has flaws, and in part, because there are differences in schedule strength.

For example, Team A plays 6 ranked teams, and 6 really bad teams.

Team B plays 2 ranked teams, but 10 teams "ranked" 26-40.  

Which is tougher depends a lot on how good teams A and B are.  A really elite team would prefer Team B's slate, but a mediocre team would prefer Team A.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 23677
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #711 on: Today at 09:58:32 AM »
Yeah I don't worry too much about them.  I just searched for something that seemed very different than the one C-Dubb posted, to be a contrarian. 

:)


utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 23677
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #712 on: Today at 10:15:20 AM »
Just glancing through schedules, these teams play all three SEC CFP teams from last year (Georgia, Tennessee, Texas):

Florida
Kentucky
Miss State

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 85765
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #713 on: Today at 11:39:41 AM »
UGA played UGA this past spring.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.