This is the time of year - late-May/early-June - when College Football preseason mags start arriving in the mail.
Going through my Lindy's preview, what first jumps out is Oklahoma ranked as high as #12. How!? 😖
After going 6-7 last season what's possibly improved? For reference Oklahoma, is ranked #25 in ESPN post-Spring practice rankings, and #10 in Josh Pate's post-Spring rankings.
To consider last season, Oklahoma's offense was a disaster, in large part because of QB play and injuries at Receiver. Going into this season, Oklahoma's high preseason rankings are banking on Oklahoma's offense to be immediately better thanks the additions of transfer QB John Mateer and new OC Ben Arbuckle, both incoming from Washington State. IMO, they are thinking way too highly of Mateer and Arbuckle hitting the ground running in the SEC.
The preseason materials also like pointing out how strong Oklahoma's defense is expected to be. But their defense was good last season - Total Defense 19th nationally - and the Sooners still lost 7 games, including their lifeless showing losing to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl. And keep in mind Oklahoma's defense will be without last season's two best players - LB Stutsman and S Bowman both selected in the 4th round of this past NFL Draft.
Another top Venables Defense won't carry Oklahoma to more than 6 wins if the offense falls apart again.
After early home games Vs Michigan, Auburn, and three cupcakes, there are no gimmies left starting with Texas. The last half of their schedule is: @South Carolina, Ole Miss, @Tennesse, @Alabama, Missouri, LSU. 😬
Right away, Oklahoma is my pick for 2025's most overrated team going into the season.
Geez....You still get the actual paper magazines? I used to buy them in my 20's just because it looked interesting. I'm not even sure where they would even be sold at?
I think OU's pre-season is based solely on their history as a program. Surely they are not only a top-10, but maybe even a top 5 of all time type program.
#12 finish in my opinion is completely unreasonable, not just because of the schedule but because in the SEC it tends to be feast or famine. You have 3 gimmies. Toss ups (right now without knowing how each team will develop) are Michigan, Auburn, USCe, and Mizzou. Solid L's are Texas, OM, UTenn, 'Bama.
Say you're good enough to beat Michigan. Fair enough, but maybe they are or maybe they aren't a good or great team. You get Auburn at 3-0, you win that one. Suddenly you're 4-0. Kent State is a W. 5-0. Then as you pointed out the going gets tough.
Right now, with where they are at as a program, UT is a L. 5-1. Still ranked #15-20.
USCe, I'm calling a L right now based on how tough they played at times last season. 5-2. You might be hanging by a thread at #25.
If you didn't beat USCe and UT, you ain't going to beat OM. 5-3. Firing the coach goes from whispers to low talking. Unranked.
If you didn't beat USEe, UT, and OM, you ain't going to beat UTenn. 5-4. Firing the coach talk gets heated.
Alabama, even if St. Nick aint' there, is probably a L. 5-5. By this time rumors are swirling about the next coach. Maybe they fire what's his name right there if they get whupped badly enough.
By this time half the team is talking about the portal, coaching rumors, etc. So that makes beating Mizzou on it's own merits tough. But probably a L. 5-6.
LSU comes last. Barring a late season miracle, win one for the coach type deal, doubtful you win in Baton Rouge. 5-7. Coach is fired, season is over, and when you look at it objectively OU probably is better than 95% of the Big 12 and ACC, but the schedule is just so much tougher that once you lose that momentum it just snowballs. All of this is based on how the other teams perform as well. I can see Michigan, Auburn, and UTenn tanking. I can see Mizzou as a bubble team.
But if you look objectively at the SEC teams who finish in the teens you have to be a 10 or 9 win team if you're Alabama. If you're OU, you ain't going to win 9/10 games, because if you do you're probably going to win 11/12 or more. It's just the way it works. Mizzou finished with 10 wins last season and only finished at #22 in the final rankings.
